During Week 10, I was 19-3 straight-up. The three losses were West Virginia (to Louisville), Nebraska (to Northwestern) and Alabama (to LSU … yes, I was on the wrong side of the biggie). I am now 192-46 straight-up for the year.
Penn State RB Silas Redd will lead his team against Nebraska amid much controversy on Saturday.
I was 13-8-1 against-the-spread. The tie was with Cincinnati-Pittsburgh with UC favored by 3 and winning by 3. I think in 10 weeks, I've still only had one week under .500. I am now 123-99-4 ATS for the year.
Here are the key games across the country this week (rankings listed are this week’s BCS rankings):
* Ohio U. (-6 ½) at Central Michigan, Thursday, 7:30 p.m. (ESPNU) -- OU will try and continue its march toward the MAC East title with this game at Mount Pleasant. After posting five straight winning seasons between 2005-09 (including 12 wins in 2009), CMU has fallen on hard times. They sit at 3-7 overall and last in the MAC West. CMU is 21-4-2 all-time vs. OU and has won the last four meetings by an average of 15 points per game. The last meeting was the 2009 MAC title game in Detroit (CMU won 20-10). CMU has lost four of its last five games. The last three losses have been by a combined 14 points, though. Ohio U. 31-28
* No. 10 Virginia Tech (-1) at No. 21 Georgia Tech, Thursday, 8 p.m. (ESPN) -- First place in the ACC Coastal Division is on the line tonight in Atlanta. Virginia Tech has won its last four games. Georgia Tech snapped a two-game losing streak with a win over Clemson (31-17). The winner of this game has repped the Coastal in the title game each of the last six years. The home team has won the last three meetings, including Virginia Tech’s 28-21 win last year at home. This is a tough one, but I will buck the home winner trend and go with the Hokies. Virginia Tech 27-23
* No. 11 Houston (-34 ½) at Tulane, Thursday, 8 p.m. (CBS Sports Network) -- NCAA record-setting QB Case Keenum will be throwing for touchdowns early and often as the Cougars invade the Superdome. The win will give Houston its seventh 10-win season in school history. With the Big East looking for warm bodies, UH picked a good time to come out of its long football slumber. Tulane has lost seven in a row this season and eight in a row in this series by an average of 23 points. Houston 54-13
* South Florida (-3 ½) at Syracuse, Friday, 8 p.m. (ESPN2) -- South Florida began the season with an upset of Notre Dame in South Bend. But after a 4-0 start, the Bulls have lost all four of their Big East games. Syracuse was 5-2 before back-to-back road losses at Louisville and Connecticut. I have no idea why a team that has lost four straight is favored over a team playing at home. Oh, USF’s last three losses have been by a total of 12 points. Hmmm. Syracuse 36-20
* No. 2 Oklahoma State (-17 ½) at Texas Tech, Saturday, noon (ABC regional) -- Oklahoma State survived last week’s home scare with Kansas State (52-45) and now visits Tech, which upset Oklahoma (41-38) but got crushed by Texas (52-20). The Cowboys, sitting at 9-0, are four wins away from its first-ever BCS bowl bid and very possibly the national title game if they can hold off Stanford. The point total should be high, real high. Oklahoma State has won three of the last four in the series, including 34-17 at Lubbock last year. Oklahoma State 51-42
* Wake Forest at No. 9 Clemson (-16 ½), Saturday, noon (ESPNU) -- First place in the ACC Atlantic will be on the line here. Clemson, trying to bounce back from its only loss (at Georgia Tech, 31-17), can clinch the division for the second time in the past three years with a win. Wake, just 3-9 last season, has had a nice reawakening this year, even if the Demon Deacons are coming off back-to-back losses, including last week’s home loss to Notre Dame (24-17). Wake last won at Clemson in 1998. Clemson has won this game four of the last five years, including 30-10 at Winston-Salem last year. Clemson 34-21
* No. 19 Nebraska (-3 ½) at No. 12 Penn State, Saturday, noon (ESPN) -- Gus Johnson called the events unfolding in State College as the “biggest story in the history of sports.” Joe Paterno is out and Tom Bradley is in as the PSU interim head coach. The game pales in comparison to the alleged misdeeds of former PSU assistant Jerry Sandusky. Honestly, I didn’t think Penn State was going to win this game anyway. Yes, PSU has the great defense. But Nebraska can score points. Nebraska is coming off the home loss to Northwestern (28-25) and needs a win to stay in the Legends Division hunt. The Penn State seniors will want to win one for JoePa. But I just don’t know how they get it done. Penn State leads the all-time series 7-6. The teams last met when they split a home-and-home series in 2002-03. Nebraska 31-17 (One more prediction: I don’t know what ESPN’s record for a Saturday noon college game is, but this will shatter that mark.)
* Florida at No. 13 South Carolina (-3 ½), Saturday, noon (CBS) -- South Carolina needs a win to stay in the hunt in the SEC East. Florida snapped a four-game losing streak with last week’s win over Vanderbilt (26-21). Steve Spurrier is 2-4 at USC against his alma mater. With the division title on the line last year, USC rolled 36-14 at Gainesville. Here’s a stat: Florida has lost eight straight games to nationally ranked foes dating back to last season. Ouch. South Carolina 26-19
* No. 16 Texas (-1 ½) at Missouri, Saturday, noon (FX) -- The Big 12’s top two rushing teams. Mizzou, sitting at 4-5, needs two wins to reach a bowl game. This starts a stretch where Texas plays three of its last four games on the road. Under Mack Brown, Texas is 3-0 at Missouri by an average of 28 points. UT won the last meeting at Columbia in 2009 (41-7). Texas 38-25
* No. 17 Michigan State (-3) at Iowa, Saturday, noon (ESPN2) -- The Big Ten Legends Division lead will be on the line. MSU has a one-game lead over Michigan, Nebraska and Iowa with three games left. Iowa destroyed MSU 37-6 last year in Iowa City. Iowa leads the all-time series at 22-18-2. Iowa pulled off a biggie last week against Michigan (24-16). MSU has won five of its last six, but the last two have been rough – loss at Nebraska (24-3) and tight home win over sadsack Minnesota (31-24). MSU averages 36 points at home and 26 on the road. I don’t know why, but I’m going Sparty. Michigan State 27-21
* West Virginia at No. 23 Cincinnati (-3 ½), at Paul Brown Stadium, Saturday, noon (ABC regional) -- Cincinnati needs to clear this hurdle and could then likely coast to the Big East title with remaining games at Rutgers and Syracuse and home with Connecticut. WVU sits two games back in the loss column coming off last week’s home loss to Louisville (38-35). UC has won six games in a row. Prior to the 2009 game (a 24-21 UC win), WVU had won its previous seven trips to Cincinnati. Last year, WVU won 37-10 in Morgantown. Cincinnati 31-24
* Rice at Northwestern (-16 ½), Saturday, noon (Big Ten Network) -- Northwestern resuscitated its bowl hopes with last week’s win at Nebraska. The Wildcats need wins over Rice here and Minnesota at home next week to clinch an unprecedented fourth straight bowl bid. Rice leads the all-time series, but NU won 30-13 last year in Houston. Northwestern 38-19
* Ohio State (-7 ½) at Purdue, Saturday, noon (Big Ten Network) -- With Penn State in disarray, Ohio State – even two games back – has a chance to steal the Leaders Division title. The Buckeyes must win out and hope either Nebraska or Wisconsin beat PSU. OSU got stunned 26-18 at Purdue two years ago, but blistered the Boilers 49-0 at home last year. OSU leads the all-time series 38-13-2. This is OSU’s last game without WR DeVier Posey and an important hurdle to clear. Purdue is back home after road losses at Michigan (36-14) and Wisconsin (62-17). Purdue is 11th in the Big Ten in rushing defense. That doesn’t bode well after OSU had three 100-yard rushers last week. Ohio State 33-18
* TCU at No. 5 Boise State (-15 ½), Saturday, 3:30 p.m. (Versus) -- The Mountain West lead is on the line here as Boise, which looks like it is using the MWC as a weigh station on its way to the Big East, hosts TCU. TCU is Big 12-bound after this season. Boise leads the all-time series 2-1 with all previous meetings in bowl games. Last meeting was 2010 Fiesta Bowl, won by Boise 17-10. TCU has won four straight after an OT loss to rival SMU. Boise State 35-23
* Texas A&M (-4 ½) at No. 14 Kansas State, Saturday, 3:30 p.m. (ABC regional) -- K-State will try and regroup after back-to-back losses to top-10 powers Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. A&M also comes in off losses to Missouri and Oklahoma. Kansas State 31-30
* No. 20 Auburn at No. 15 Georgia (-13), Saturday, 3:30 p.m. (CBS) -- Georgia opened 0-2 and many thought Mark Richt would be done in Athens. But Georgia has won seven straight and can clinch a tie for the SEC East title with a win over Auburn. (They still need either another win or a South Carolina loss to secure the East Division berth in the title game.) Georgia will have running back Isaiah Crowell back. Auburn is 1-3 on the road this year. Georgia 30-20
* Army vs. Rutgers (-7 ½), at Bronx, N.Y. (Yankee Stadium), Saturday, 3:30 p.m. (CBS Sports Network) – The House That Jeter Built will host another college football game with the Big Apple’s top two college teams doing battle. Rutgers 31-17
* No. 18 Wisconsin (-27 ½) at Minnesota, Saturday, 3:30 p.m. (Big Ten Network) -- Paul Bunyan’s Axe will be at stake at TCF Bank Stadium. This will be the 121st meeting in college football’s oldest rivalry. Minnesota leads the all-time series 59-53-8, but Wisconsin leads the battle for the Axe at 37-23-3. Wisconsin has won 14 of the last 16 meetings (since 1995), including the last seven (since 2004). UW has won those seven by an average of 13.6 points and won last year 41-23 at home. Minnesota, just 2-7, has played better football the last two weeks with the win over Iowa and tight loss at Michigan State. Wisconsin has had 48 or more points in six of its nine games. Wisconsin 41-20
* No. 24 Michigan (pick’em) at Illinois, Saturday, 3:30 p.m. (ABC regional, ESPN outer markets) -- Here are two teams that need a reversal of fortune. Illinois started 6-0 but lost three in a row going into an open week. Michigan started 6-0, but has lost two of its last three. UM leads the all-time series 67-23-2 and has won seven of the last nine in the series, including last year’s 67-65 triple OT win in Ann Arbor. Michigan (and I’m not entirely sure why) 35-31
* Miami (Fla.) at Florida State (-8 ½), Saturday, 3:30 p.m. (ABC regional, ESPN outer markets) -- Man, didn’t you used to be the Miami-Florida State game? This rivalry has fallen on hard times. FSU has won four straight games and needs help to win the ACC Atlantic title. Miami leads the all-time series 31-24. But FSU has won four of the last six, including 45-17 last year at Miami. Florida State 27-21
* Washington at No. 18 (AP) USC (-11 ½), Saturday, 3:45 p.m. (FX) -- USC has won four of its last five games, while U-Dub has lost two of its last three to Stanford and Oregon. This game matches former USC assistants Steve Sarkisian (UW) and Lane Kiffin (USC). Sarkisian is 2-0 against USC with wins at home in 2009 (16-13) and at USC last year (32-31). The last two games were decided on the last play and this should be a good one. USC 36-33
* Tennessee at No. 8 Arkansas (-14 ½), Saturday, 6 p.m. (ESPN2) -- Arkansas has quietly trudged on at 8-1. The loss to Alabama basically rules the Hogs out of a BCS bid. UT is 0-5 in SEC play. Ouch. Arkansas 36-19
* UCLA at Utah (-7), Saturday, 6:30 p.m. (Fox College Sports Central) -- UCLA is three wins away from an improbable Pac-12 South title. The Bruins edged Arizona State 29-28 last week. Utah has won two in a row over Oregon State and Arizona. UCLA 31-27
* Western Kentucky at No. 1 LSU (-41 ½), Saturday, 7 p.m. (ESPNU) -- Western Kentucky is 5-4 and those five wins are more than the Hilltoppers had in the last three seasons combined (four). They have won five in a row. But they are in with the varsity here as LSU comes off its 9-6 overtime win at Alabama in their one-versus-two game. LSU 49-10
* Maryland vs. Notre Dame (-20 ½), at Landover, Md. (FedEx Field), Saturday, 7:30 p.m. (NBC) -- ND moved this home game to a “neutral field” six miles from the Maryland campus. Notre Dame's only previous meeting with Maryland came in a 20-0 Irish victory on Aug. 31, 2002, at Giants Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J. NBC should not expect a big rating with Maryland limping in at 2-7. Notre Dame 34-17
* No. 3 Alabama (-18) at Mississippi State, Saturday, 7:45 p.m. (ESPN) -- Alabama must regroup and it begins with this trip to Starkville. The Bulldogs have won two straight over Kentucky and I-AA Tennessee-Martin. Alabama has won three in a row in the series, including a 30-10 win at Tuscaloosa last year. Alabama 30-10 (I had to do it)
* No. 7 Oregon at No. 4 Stanford (-3 ½), Saturday, 8 p.m. (ABC) -- This is probably the biggest game of the day, even if the Penn State story is overshadowing everything. Stanford still harbors hopes of playing for the national title. A win over a top-10 team here would boost those hopes and probably move Stanford ahead of one-loss Alabama in the BCS standings. Oregon has won eight straight after its season-opening loss to No. 1 LSU. The home team has won the last three meetings in the series. Stanford won 51-42 in 2009, while Oregon won 52-31 last year. This should be a real treat. Stanford 38-31
* Arizona State (-13) at Washington State, Saturday, 10:30 p.m. (Versus) -- ASU leads the all-time series 23-12-2 and has won 11 of the last 14 meetings, including seven in a row and 42-0 last year in Tempe. Washington State has lost five straight. ASU bounces back on the road. Arizona State 41-23
Enjoy another great weekend of college football. We will grade these picks on Sunday.
- Steve Helwagen
- National Reporter - Bucknuts