The Blue Board

Posted this on the A&M site yesterday. Thought I'd get everyone's input on here too.

Here's my run-down of what teams are still in contention for the 10 BCS spots and how it all shakes out. (Notes on BCS rules: No more han two teams can be selected from any one conference. If a team from a conference represented in the MNC game finishes number 3 or 4 in the final BCS, they are guaranteed that conference's at-large spot. Teams must finish in the top 14 of the final BCS rankings to be eligible for an at-large selection.)

Independants: Notre Dame wraps up a spot in the MNC game with a win at USC. Even with a loss, they have a spot as an at-large if they finish in the top 8. (1)

Pac-12: Even if Stanford can get a win next saturday at UCLA, the Bruins will get another shot at the Cardinal six days later in the PAC-12 championship. (Stanford would be the host.) This looks like the conference champion will get one BCS spot and Oregon will get the at-large spot. Should Stanford lose to UCLA, the Oregon vs. Oregon St. winner would face UCLA in the championship. In any case, I see the PAC-12 with Oregon and one of Stanford, Oregon St., or UCLA earning a bid. (2)

SEC: Barring a massive upset in the final week, Alabama and Georgia will duke it out for the auto-bid in the SEC CG. Should Florida beat FSU, they likely jump the CG loser and finish in the BCS Top 4, thus assuring themselves of an at-large bid (see rules above). With a Florida loss, it becomes a toss up between the CG loser, LSU, A&M, UF, and South Carolina (if they beat Clemson). All will probably be 2-loss teams and each would have at least one quality win to point to, but only one team has Johnny Football. We all know that this should end up with A&M in New Orleans, but it wouldn't be a sure thing. (Note complete lack of objectivity in this section.) In any case, the SEC is a lock to get 2 BCS bids. (2)

Big Ten: It is likely Nebraska (final game vs. Iowa) and Wisconsin will play in the conference championship for the only B1G BCS slot. Michigan would have to beat Ohio St. in the final week and catipult from No. 19 to No. 14 in the BCS (despite a then 9-3 record) for the B1G to have even a mathematical chance of an at-large bid. (1)

Big East: Rutgers and Louisville will face off on November 30th with the conference championship likely on the line. it will be the first game either team has played vs. a ranked opponent. Each team has one loss to an unranked opponent already. Unfortunately, the winner is guaraneed a BCS slot despite the fact that 8-10 more deserving teams will not get in. (1)

ACC: The ACC is incredibly top heavy, and both top teams are in one division. If FSU and Clemson both knock off ranked SEC teams next week, it is very likely that both get BCS bids. Should either lose, they would possibly drop out of the Top 14 and lose all hope of an at-large. FSU will play in the conference championship against Georgia Tech (likely a 6-6 team at that point). If GT pulls the huge upset, they would crash the BCS party and FSU or Clemson would possibly still get an at-large bid (if either wins this saturday). In all probability, FSU and Clemson control the conferences hopes of an at-large this weekend. Unless they go 2-0, the ACC is staring down the barrel at a one-bid year. (1-2)

Big 12: Ahhh the Big 12. KState can still clinch the conference with a win at home against Texas on Dec. 1st. Another loss would give OU the conference championship (assuming they take care of OSU (at home) and TCU). Should KState win, Oklahoma and the ACC #2 team would likely be in contention for the final BCS spot, with Clemson and FSU controlling their own destiny IMO. Should KSU lose at home to t.u., OU would be the conference champion.(Here's where is gets crazy.) KSU and t.u. would both likely be 10-2 (assuming a t.u. win over TCU) and in the Top 14. If a second ACC team is not available, t.u. would end up in a BCS bowl. That's right, the same t.u. that dropped one to WV, got dismantled by OU, survived both QB and coaching controversies, outlasted Baylor 56-50, and came back to beat KU in the final seconds. They could conceivably still sneak in the BCS race. (1-2)

What to Watch (Competitive games listed in order of BCS importance):
This Weekend:
UF vs. FSU
USC(e) vs. Clemson
USC vs. Notre Dame
Oregon vs. Oregon St.
Stanford vs. UCLA
OU vs. OSU
Final Weekend:
Pac-12 CG
SEC CG
ACC CG
B1G CG
KState vs. t.u.
Rutgers vs. Louisville