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SpartanRocky said...
I fully expect the UM guys not to agree with or like my UM predictions. The IL game was a swing game, but I'll get to that in a second
I think, with your secondary, you have to be concerned with Floyd, even if he hasn't hurt you guys in the past; he's going to be pretty motivated. I just don't see how you can brush him off, historical stats or no.
IL: Few thoughts; you guys exchanged home Ws the past 2 years, and it's at @IL. Usually you see a bump in production in year 2 of a new system, or if your QB played as a frosh and is in his 2nd year (Barkley, Robinson, Stafford, Colt McCoy, Sam Bradford, Tebow, etc.). IL has both going for it this year. Finally, it's a classic trap game; it's an out-of-division game against an opponent you beat last year in between divisional games against big name opponents in Iowa and Nebraska. It could definitely go either way, but with Iowa, Nebraska and tOSU in the last 1/3 of the season, I can see a bit of a letdown game against the Illini.
I like those coordinators for IL; Zook figured out he can't coach, so found 2 guys that could. IL's definitely my "surprise" team, along with Iowa, though as more people are paying attention to their very light schedule, they're not so much of a surprise.
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Ollie-Ali said...
Secondary wont be the strength of the D but should & is expected to perform at a higher level than last year. With that said, Floyd is very talented & it would not surprise me if he had a good day. Not the sure thing you imply though IMO.
I have to ask Rocky, how does Floyd's "motivation" factor into the equation?
Michigan State does not and will not run the 3-4 defense.
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SpartanRocky said...
What I'm saying that Floyd, when he wants to be, is one of the 4 elite WRs in college football (Broyles, Blackmon and Jeffries are the other 3). He knows this is his last chance to impress, so I expect him to go all out, especially in a rivalry game, under the lights. When preparation/focus/drive/whatever you want to call it is equal, the physically superior athlete wins.
In terms of that, I honestly don't think he can be covered by anyone less than an elite DB when he's on, and I don't think either UM or MSU has an elite DB on their roster right now. I expect him to do major damage against both teams.
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OldOaken said...
Thanks for noticing the NW record, I fixed it
Honestly just a weird feeling with the UM/MSU game. I think UM will be a little better than people think and I dont think MSU will be as good as others think. They will still be good but not as good I feel.
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Ollie-Ali said...
Fair enough, I disagree, & personally think if motivation is a factor at all (which I doubt it will be) it would tend to go our way. Again though, I really can't see either team, let alone individual player having a decided advantage due to extra motivation.
I do agree with him being nearly un-coverable one on one though. I don't however, expect him to be in that situation very often.
Michigan State does not and will not run the 3-4 defense.
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OldOaken said...
OK here we go!
ILLINOIS[b/]
9/3 [b]Arkansas St W
9/10 South Dakota St W
9/17 Arizona St L
9/24 Western Michigan W
10/1 Northwestern L
10/8 @ Indiana W
10/15 Ohio State L
10/22 @ Purdue W
10/29 @Penn State L
11/12 Michigan L
11/19 Wisconsin[b/] L
11/26 [b]@ Minnesota W6-6, 3-5
Indiana
9/3 VS Ball Sate W
9/10 vs Virginia W.... Not a very good team and didnt win a road game last year
9/17 vs South Carolina St W
9/24 @ North Texas W
10/1 vs Penn State L
10/8 vs Illinois L
10/15 @ Wisconsin L.... Hopefully they wont score 83 again
10/22 @ Iowa L.... Play Iowa tough and lose it in the 4th quarter again
10/29 vs Northwestern W
11/5 @ Ohio St L
11/19 @ Mich St L
11/26 vs Purdue W.... The Bucket stays with IU6-6, 2-6
IOWA
Sept. 3 Tennessee Tech W
Sept. 10 at Iowa State W
Sept. 17 Pittsburgh W
Sept. 24 ULM W
Oct. 8 at Penn State W
Oct. 15 Northwestern W
Oct. 22 Indiana W
Oct. 29 at Minnesota W
Nov. 5 Michigan W
Nov. 12 Michigan State W
Nov. 19 at Purdue W
Nov. 25 at Nebraska L.... Nebraska defense too much for them11-1, 7-1
MICHIGAN
Sept. 3 Western Michigan W
Sept. 10 Notre Dame L..... ND improved defense shuts Michigan down
Sept. 17 Eastern Michigan W
Sept. 24 San Diego St. W
Oct. 1 Minnesota W
Oct. 8 @ Northwestern W
Oct. 15 @ Michigan St W----Upset special
Oct. 29 Purdue W
Nov. 5 @ Iowa L
Nov. 12 @ Illinois W
Nov. 19 Nebraska L
Nov. 26 Ohio State L8-4, 5-3
Michigan State
Sept. 3 Youngstown St W
Sept. 10 Florida Atlantic W
Sept. 17 at Notre Dame L
Sept. 24 Central Michigan W
Oct. 1 at Ohio State W
Oct. 15 Michigan L..... I know a lot of people wont agree, but there are going to be upsets sometime this year.
Oct. 22 Wisconsin W
Oct. 29 at Nebraska L
Nov. 5 Minnesota W
Nov. 12 at Iowa L
Nov. 19 Indiana W
Nov. 26 at Northwestern W8-4, 5-3
MINNESOTA
Sept. 3 at USC L
Sept. 10 New Mexico St. W
Sept. 17 Miami-OH L
Sept. 24 NO DAKOTA ST W
Oct. 1 at Michigan L
Oct. 8 at Purdue L
Oct. 22 Nebraska L
Oct. 29 Iowa L
Nov. 5 at Michigan State L
Nov. 12 Wisconsin L
Nov. 19 at Northwestern L
Nov. 26 Illinois L2-10, 0-8
NEBRASKA
Sept. 3 Chattanooga W
Sept. 10 Fresno State W
Sept. 17 Washington W
Sept. 24 at Wyoming W
Oct. 1 at Wisconsin L... First BIG TEN road game will be a loss.
Oct. 8 Ohio State W
Oct. 22 at Minnesota W
Oct. 29 Michigan State W
Nov. 5 Northwestern W
Nov. 12 at Penn State W
Nov. 19 at Michigan W
Nov. 25 Iowa W11-1, 7-1
NORTHWESTERN
Sept. 3 at Boston College L
Sept. 10 Eastern Illinois W
Sept. 17 at Army W
Oct. 1 at Illinois W
Oct. 8 Michigan L
Oct. 15 at Iowa L
Oct. 22 Penn State L
Oct. 29 at Indiana L
Nov. 5 at Nebraska L
Nov. 12 Rice W
Nov. 19 Minnesota W
Nov. 26 Michigan State L5-7, 2-6..... I think I am underrating this team some
OHIO STATE
Sept. 3 Akron W
Sept. 10 Toledo W
Sept. 17 at Miami-FL W
Sept. 24 Colorado W
Oct. 1 Michigan State L
Oct. 8 at Nebraska L
Oct. 15 at Illinois W
Oct. 29 Wisconsin L
Nov. 5 Indiana W
Nov. 12 at Purdue W
Nov. 19 Penn State W
Nov. 26 at Michigan W9-3, 5-3.... Wins game they should and losses games they should. Nothing special this season
PENN STATE
Sept. 3 Indiana St W
Sept. 10 Alabama L
Sept. 17 at Temple W
Sept. 24 Eastern Michigan W
Oct. 1 at Indiana W
Oct. 8 Iowa L.... Keeps it close but not close enough in the end
Oct. 15 Purdue W
Oct. 22 at Northwestern W
Oct. 29 Illinois W
Nov. 12 Nebraska L
Nov. 19 at Ohio State L
Nov. 26 at Wisconsin L7-5, 4-4
PURDUE
Sept. 3 Middle Tenn. W
Sept. 10 at Rice W
Sept. 17 SE Missouri St. W
Oct. 1 Notre Dame L
Oct. 8 Minnesota W
Oct. 15 at Penn State L
Oct. 22 Illinois L
Oct. 29 at Michigan L
Nov. 5 at Wisconsin L
Nov. 12 Ohio State L
Nov. 19 Iowa L
Nov. 26 at Indiana L4-8, 1-7..... I hate Purdue
WISCONSIN
Sept. 1 UNLV W
Sept. 10 Oregon State W
Sept. 17 Northern Illinois W
Sept. 24 SOUTH DAKOTA W
Oct. 1 Nebraska W
Oct. 15 Indiana W
Oct. 22 at Michigan State L
Oct. 29 at Ohio State W
Nov. 5 Purdue W
Nov. 12 at Minnesota W
Nov. 19 at Illinois W
Nov. 26 Penn State W11-1, 7-1..... Will be going to the Rose Bowl again.
I double checked but still could have missed a few games where I got the win and loss wrong. Let me know if I did
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dustelli said...
Top Games
1. Nebraska at Wisconsin - This is Nebraska's first conference game, and it is a night game in one of the tougher venues in the big ten. Regardless of how I think the season will turn out the hype meter will be high coming into this game, as it should considering on paper this may determine the Big Ten champ. or least pave the way. Ultimately i think that the gap between Offenses is greater than the gap between defenses and the home team takes this one. Wisconsin 28 Nebraska 13. Let the Wisconsin hype machine start rolling until it smacks us in the face.
2. Wisconsin at Ohio St. - I expect Wisconsin to flying high at 7-0 and thinking their sh!t doesn't stink. Adding to that is the fact that we are one of the few teams in the conference that have had some success against Ohio St. even on the road. Ohio St reminds us that our sh!t can stink. The have everyone back at this point and have figured out who they are. I am guessing the new coach will look at last years film and coach all week on how to do the opposite. They still have talent and are at home. There isn't a game on Wisconsin's schedule that I think they can't win, but I know they won't win them all. OSU 24 Wisconsin 21
3. Michigan St at Ohio St. - This is a game everyone is looking to as timing is everything. MSU will know a lot more about their OL and they are catching OSU at a good time. Regardless of missing players they will still most likely be starting a freshman QB early in the year with a first year head coach. I think in terms of athleticism MSU matches up very well and the experienced play of Kirk Cousins is going to help them pull this one out on the road. MSU 27 OSU 17
4 and 5 are a tossup between; -Wisconsin @ MSU which could be part 1 eventhough it is part 2 from last season. -Penn St. @ OSU as this could be where OSU thinks they are going to sneak away with another crown, but not so fast my friend. BTW I just realized they get Wisconsin, MSU, and PSU all at home.
Michigan State does not and will not run the 3-4 defense.
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SpartanRocky said...
Kind of nuts that Wisky-Nebraska and MSU-tOSU are on the same weekend. That should be the top 4 ranked Big 10 teams playing each other on the same day.
FWIW, I know you predicted Wisconsin to beat MSU; want to see how you think that game will play out. As I noted above, both teams have 2-0 against each other at home in the last 4 meetings, and Wisconsin has struggled in their first conf. road game (our game, on Oct. 22nd, is your first road game).
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dustelli said...
If nothing else I think we are due. Truthfully though it comes down to a couple of things. First I think we match up a little better than we did last year. Our use of Clay versus your speed at LB was just plain stupid. I don't think that scenario plays the same. Cousins with another year under his belt scares me, but I am banking on being able to get to him a few times. That is assuming I believe the early hype on our DE's. In the end I think we go 1-1 over the two game stretch and had to come up with a loss. Losing @ OSU and winning @ MSU was a better storyline for selfish reasons. Could go either way though. I don't see us losing to Nebraska. If I am wrong that early loss could really change the season.
Michigan State does not and will not run the 3-4 defense.
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dustelli said...
Well the punter who did that last year turned into one of the best punters in the Big 10 down the stretch. It was like a switch was flipped half way through the season. We also have more speed on coverage than we had last year. You and I probably watched that game through different colored glasses, but for me that was the most frustrating game. I thought it was the worst called game by Paul Chryst, just as the Rose Bowl. We had things that were working, but he insisted on doing other things. You had a fast aggressive defense (epsecially at LB) yet he continued to push Clay off Tackle for 1 yd gains and losses. Every time we threw White on the edges it was a big gain. It was obvious White was the difference maker in that game for us yet he continued to lumber Clay. The other side of it was Tolzien. I have never been a ST supporter and that game was the epitome fo why i feel that way. His arm was sub average for what a Big Ten QB should be. He would flutter balls to the edges and also run himself into sacks. He did get better as the year went on, but when you want to use the pass as part of your game plan you don't have a noodle arm QB go 11-25. It was not like he was missing on fly patterns or deep crossing. He was lofting swing passes and outs to where there was nothing a reciever could do. I know this is starting to sound like I think we gave you the game. Aside from the TO's you guys played a really good game. Our defense gave us an opportunity to win the game, well except for the blown coverage on the TD pass (I forget if it was the one to Dell or Gantt). The long drive in the 4th as well. The offense did not put it's best foot forward. As much credit as our offense got in the second half of the year they did not come to play in that game. Clay being hurt off and on the rest of the way really helped that. So with the subtraction of Clay and Tolzien I think we are a better offense this year and match up better. We will miss Kendricks in a match up like this, but what does it matter when the QB couldn't always get him the ball when he was open (3 for 17). It was a 10 pt margin, but is was also a FG game in the 4th Q.
Yes we do lose Watt, but our DL as a unit will be better. It is just a question of can anyone get in the backfield without a star like Watt. I think there will be some suprises this year with Gilbert and Nzegwu. Obvioulsy not Watt caliber, but more than adequate. As far as why MSU and not OSU. That is simple. All the complaining, the billboards, etc...plus back to back home games make me want that game more. I think we just have a better team too. with all that said it is a game we could easily lose.
Michigan State does not and will not run the 3-4 defense.
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xxmgobluexx said...
Not Oak here, but I will give my reasons.
Hoke has circled this game, he wants to reastablish the pecking order for the state of Michigan on the field like he has in recruiting. MSU is coming off of a bye week, usual that is a good thing, but that hasn't been the case for MSU under Dantonio, I believe they are 1-3 following a bye. Michigan will have all of the offensive and defensive wrinkles worked out and will be humming along.
This post was edited by SpartanRocky on 8/9/2011 at 12:14 PM
Michigan State does not and will not run the 3-4 defense.
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Big Ten Round Table Eight (Aug. 8)