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Colley Matrix should be removed from bcs formula

  • Being the math guy that I am, the PAC-12 and Big-12 should petition the bcs to remove the colley matrix from the bcs formula. Maybe it is too late with the end of the bcs in a couple of years, but the formula Colley uses is extremely flawed and does not account for the difference in conferences playing 9 conference games to those who play only 8. We can all intuitively understand that if you play in a tough conference, replacing some rent-a-win with a conference game is going to give you a stronger SOS. Due to the flawed math used by Colley, the opposite actually occurs in his formula.

    Unbowed, Unbent, Unbroken

    MJRuffalo

  • So playing Kansas and Washington State instead of East Carolina and Louisiana-Monroe is that significant?

    E-mail: jc@247Sports.com/Twitter: @jcshurburtt/Instagram jcshurburtt

    JC Shurburtt ●

  • JC Shurburtt said...

    So playing Kansas and Washington State instead of East Carolina and Louisiana-Monroe is that significant?

    It is how his SOS system is taken into account in it's entirety. Since a conference is always going to go .500 against itself, playing 9 conference games hurts those whose systems use opponent win percentage is the largest factor in a SOS formula.

    To make it simple, If you play 9 conference games, it adds 4-5 losses and takes away 4-5 wins from your opp win % overall. It takes those 10-2 teams and turns them into 9-3 teams.

    Unbowed, Unbent, Unbroken

    MJRuffalo

  • They need to account for margin of victory instead of the terrible system that they use.

    rolltide06

  • rolltide06 said...

    They need to account for margin of victory instead of the terrible system that they use.

    That's a whole other argument, but IMO MOV, should be accounted for in some manner.

    Unbowed, Unbent, Unbroken

    MJRuffalo

  • MJRuffalo said...

    It is how his SOS system is taken into account in it's entirety. Since a conference is always going to go .500 against itself, playing 9 conference games hurts those whose systems use opponent win percentage is the largest factor in a SOS formula.

    To make it simple, If you play 9 conference games, it adds 4-5 losses and takes away 4-5 wins from your opp win % overall. It takes those 10-2 teams and turns them into 9-3 teams.

    Oh- it's a math issue. Yeah, kick it out.

    E-mail: jc@247Sports.com/Twitter: @jcshurburtt/Instagram jcshurburtt

    JC Shurburtt ●

  • MJRuffalo said...

    It is how his SOS system is taken into account in it's entirety. Since a conference is always going to go .500 against itself, playing 9 conference games hurts those whose systems use opponent win percentage is the largest factor in a SOS formula.

    To make it simple, If you play 9 conference games, it adds 4-5 losses and takes away 4-5 wins from your opp win % overall. It takes those 10-2 teams and turns them into 9-3 teams.

    I could be wrong but doesn't the 9th conference mean in a 12 team league that it guarantees the conference
    an extra 6-6 added to the overall record when compared to an 8 game conf schedule.

    With 1 less conf game vs the other div. the Pac12 hypothetically could look like this

    These North teams records stay the same (Trading a win for a win OOC)
    Oregon 10-0
    Stanford 8-2
    Oregon St 8-2
    Washington 6-4
    Cal 3-8

    These 5 Pac South teams all trade 1 conference loss
    for an OOC win vs a Lou-Monroe or E.Carolina type team.

    UCLA 9-1 (taking away L to Cal or Oregon St)
    USC 8-2 (taking away L to Oregon or Stanford)
    Arizona 7-3 (taking away L to Stanford, Oregon, or Oregon St)
    ASU 6-4 (taking away L to Oregon St or Oregon)
    Utah 5-5 (taking away L to UW or Oregon St)

    You would probably be looking at 6
    PAC 12 teams in the top 15 & 4 PAC teams in the top 10/12.
    Instead you have 1 team in the top 12.

    NcaaAssassinG13 ●

  • Of course, we would all be devastated that the clash of the titans matchup
    between Colorado & Wazzu would not have happened.

    NcaaAssassinG13 ●

  • JC Shurburtt said...

    So playing Kansas and Washington State instead of East Carolina and Louisiana-Monroe is that significant?

    This times a million. Stop acting your conference is great from top to bottom. I get what you are saying but the bottom of your conference is terrible just like the bottom of the Sec and the bottom of the Big10/12. It is what it is. One game doesn't change that.

    This post was edited by LaBornNRaised on 11/17/2012 at 2:32 AM

    signature image

    LaBornNRaised

  • LaBornNRaised said...

    This times a million. Stop acting your conference is great from top to bottom. I get what you are saying but the bottom of your conference is terrible just like the bottom of the Sec and the bottom of the Big10/12. It is what it is. One game doesn't change that.

    So it doesnt change the numbers within a conference to add an extra loss?

    signature image

    ProUSC

  • LaBornNRaised said...

    This times a million. Stop acting your conference is great from top to bottom. I get what you are saying but the bottom of your conference is terrible just like the bottom of the Sec and the bottom of the Big10/12. It is what it is. One game doesn't change that.

    Since you are having trouble understanding it, just take 9 PAC teams, from 4th place to last place (leave out the top 3 teams) and pick 6 teams from out of those 9 and adjust their record by adding 1 win and subtracting 1 loss.

    That's the effect of 9 conf games, as compared to 8.

    It's not like it's cal-cool-iss garnal

    NcaaAssassinG13 ●

  • JC Shurburtt said...

    So playing Kansas and Washington State instead of East Carolina and Louisiana-Monroe is that significant?

    I think JC was just being a smart ass with this post. I find it hard to believe that someone that makes his living
    covering recruiting and college football would have no understanding about the significance of playing 9 Conference games compared to 8, like his post suggests.

    Good one JC

    NcaaAssassinG13 ●

  • NcaaAssassinG13 said...

    I think JC was just being a smart ass with this post. I find it hard to believe that someone that makes his living covering recruiting and college football would have no understanding about the significance of playing 9 Conference games compared to 8, like his post suggests.

    Good one JC

    you would be surprised. So many of the so called pundits and experts, really don't understand this difference, in both how it is factored in the computers, and how it is factored in the human polls.

    Unbowed, Unbent, Unbroken

    MJRuffalo

  • I don't agree with everything ITT but a 9 game conference schedule could have drastically shook up what the SEC standings look like today.

    This post was edited by free shoes on 11/17/2012 at 6:38 AM

    free shoes

  • That's one of the main reasons the SEC didn't go to 9-game schedules. It would likely be removing teams from bowl eligibility.

    signature image signature image signature image

    Face Stabber

  • MJRuffalo said...

    if you play in a tough conference

    This is where you lost me.

    bamadvm ●

  • bamadvm said...

    This is where you lost me.

    you were lost a long, long time ago.

    Unbowed, Unbent, Unbroken

    MJRuffalo

  • MJRuffalo said...

    you were lost a long, long time ago.

    Zing. So clever.

    bamadvm ●

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