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vtfan_90 ●
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vtfan_90 said...
Yep and what I meant by that is great motivational speakers rah rah type guys. Willing to push blame to everybody else when something goes wrong. And I would not trust either one with the game on the line to make the right decision for their team or country in this case.
I really have no faith in the gov't right now. I agree with you the election suck because the first 4 years a president is in office is a waste.. The first 2 years are a celebration/victory tour and the next 2 years are spent trying to get back in for another 4 years.
Not really a great comparison because college coaches can't really give in or compromise. Obama is about to talk the talk,but ain't walkin' the walk. I see him caving in to keep the economy from collapsing. He'll probably give up something here from some capital later on to deal with immigration or energy. It's going to stretch out til the very end to because it's not politically damaging to do otherwise.
By the way, don't be surprised if our nice politicians take some nice vacation time between now and New Year's. It's not like there isn't anything important to get done between now and then.
"A political call, the fall guy accord...We can't afford to be neutral on a moving train..."
BamaLivesFootba
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BamaLivesFootba said...
$55B from both non-defense discretionary and defense spending for FY 2013-2022.
If you are talking about pure deficit reduction, the fiscal cliff is a good thing.
However, the size and scope of the cuts at this time are ill-timed.
The cuts and taxes will likely send the economy back into recession which not only contracts gdp (lowering one end of the debt to gdp ratio) it also will likely offset some of the deficit reduction in lower revenue.
Basically, the whole point of not letting the cliff happen is to deal with future deficits in a way that doesn't hamper economic growth significantly. This can be done in different ways.
ReasonableDoubt
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BamaLivesFootba said...
Not really a great comparison because college coaches can't really give in or compromise. Obama is about to talk the talk,but ain't walkin' the walk. I see him caving in to keep the economy from collapsing. He'll probably give up something here from some capital later on to deal with immigration or energy. It's going to stretch out til the very end to because it's not politically damaging to do otherwise.
By the way, don't be surprised if our nice politicians take some nice vacation time between now and New Year's. It's not like there isn't anything important to get done between now and then.
Probably all go Golfing!!!
vtfan_90 ●
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BamaLivesFootba
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cockengr
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cockengr said...
Look, my wife and I are as middle class as it gets. We play by the rules, we pay our mortgage on time, we pay the rest of our bills, taxes, insurance on everything out the ass, whatever. We will owe several thousand more dollars next year if this doesn't go through. We've worked hard to cut a few hundred dollars a month out of our expenses to free up some money. Gone. In a blink. Even worse, the small business I work for will see some bad effects from the payroll tax breaks expiring. people will lose their jobs. people will have less discretionary income to SPEND and stimulate the economy.
It is so simple that allowing this to happen right now would be a disaster for the economy, and if they can't get a deal done, frankly its a slap in the face to people like us who never ask for anything and are productive citizens to society and government. We pay. and we pay. and we pay. and we pay. we are deciding whether or not we can afford our first kid. We look around and see jobless degenerates popping out baby after baby after baby...we are already paying for their kids. have another baby. here is another $100 a month. now the government just needs a little more. just a little more.
I'm with you man vtfan_90 ●
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cockengr said...
Look, my wife and I are as middle class as it gets. We play by the rules, we pay our mortgage on time, we pay the rest of our bills, taxes, insurance on everything out the ass, whatever. We will owe several thousand more dollars next year if this doesn't go through. We've worked hard to cut a few hundred dollars a month out of our expenses to free up some money. Gone. In a blink. Even worse, the small business I work for will see some bad effects from the payroll tax breaks expiring. people will lose their jobs. people will have less discretionary income to SPEND and stimulate the economy.
It is so simple that allowing this to happen right now would be a disaster for the economy, and if they can't get a deal done, frankly its a slap in the face to people like us who never ask for anything and are productive citizens to society and government. We pay. and we pay. and we pay. and we pay. we are deciding whether or not we can afford our first kid. We look around and see jobless degenerates popping out baby after baby after baby...we are already paying for their kids. have another baby. here is another $100 a month. now the government just needs a little more. just a little more.
its just not the time right now to do this. obviously we need a balanced budget as a country and that has to combine revenue sources and spending. but hitting the middle class in the face right now, as well as small business, is dangerous.
You were literally hitting a homerun and batting .1000 until you got to here. Sorry but our problem never has been one of welfare. It's a lot more complicated than that. It's a lot bigger than that.
Everything else is spot on.
"A political call, the fall guy accord...We can't afford to be neutral on a moving train..."
BamaLivesFootba
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cockengr
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cockengr said...
its part of the problem. not welfare itself and the exact dollar figures of whats abused and what isn't, but the entitlement mentality and rewarding nonproductive behavior (this is my personal opinion and there is a little bit of a moral argument there that we can leave out)
but yeah that was minor aside/rant to me just describing how it would affect us personally.
CMXI
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CMXI said...
I'm with BLF, the rest of your post was spot on. I won't deny that welfare's a problem, but it's a minimal problem that's merely a social policy point that has been hyped up because it's easier to point to welfare recipients as the cause of American economic troubles than to address the numerous holes in our tax structure and the economic policies that led to the recession.
Simply put: welfare should be addressed, but if we actually want to fix the American economy and not just look for scapegoats, welfare is pretty far down on the priority list of things that need to be fixed.
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cockengr
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cockengr said...
its part of the problem. not welfare itself and the exact dollar figures of whats abused and what isn't, but the entitlement mentality and rewarding nonproductive behavior (this is my personal opinion and there is a little bit of a moral argument there that we can leave out)
but yeah that was minor aside/rant to me just describing how it would affect us personally.
"A political call, the fall guy accord...We can't afford to be neutral on a moving train..."
BamaLivesFootba
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CMXI
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BamaLivesFootba said...
It's from both, so it's $110B just in spending cuts. Combine that with the tax increases and its a hefty toll on the economy. The whole point of deficit reduction is to slow the growth or reduce the debt to gdp ratio. So in reality it's about FUTURE deficits.
If the economy contracts, the debt to gdp ratio increases even if we don't add any debt. Now add on the fact we'd still have $600B nominally added.
A perfect plan would be to get FUTURE deficits down to under an averaged growth rate as a percentage of GDP. If the deficit is lower than that averaged rate, the debt to gdp ratio will decrease.
It's unlikely we will 3.4% a year growth averages like we did between 1900-1990.
It would be more reasonable to get the deficit as a percentage of GDP down to around 2%. It should be in the sixes for FY 2013. If the economy improves, the growth rate rises (one part the equation of nominal debt/GDP) and the deficit reduces due to increased revenues (the other part of the equation).
The best way to lower our debt to gdp ratio is to grow out of it. Period.
If we can cut some this year, more the next, more the next and so on and get back to fiscal responsibility during good years, we can accomplish this.
In a same world, we would balance the books during good times and run them during bad times. Sadly, we haven't done that in the past. Hopefully we can in the future.
ReasonableDoubt
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ReasonableDoubt
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ReasonableDoubt said...
I don't think it will hurt the economy from what you have explained.
Imo, our core priority should be to increase the value of the dollar. As the dollar goes up, gas goes down. That will boost the economy more than anything.
"A political call, the fall guy accord...We can't afford to be neutral on a moving train..."
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Jack Passion
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Jack Passion said...
From my understanding of fiscal policy, and correct me if I'm wrong, doesn't a weaker dollar play to the United States advantage right now because it strengthens our exports and makes us rely more on domestic products?
"A political call, the fall guy accord...We can't afford to be neutral on a moving train..."
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Humble Warrior
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Commentary on this Fiscal Cliff deal....