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^^ This ^^
Illinois was bad last year. I don't think my prediction of them winning 4 games is stating that they are good this year.....maybe just that they are a little more hungry or determined. I gave them the Miami, OH game which could easily be a loss for sure.
Purdue is a team that I think you could be right about, but they have 3 OOC games I think they should lose (Cincy, ND, and UNI) If that happens, starting the season 1-5 doesn't give you much confidence going into a bye week to get rerady for Nebraska and @MSU, IMO. Their schedule is very tough for them.
Michigan didn't have the guts last season, IMO. When I get to see a team live, it makes it easier for me to determine what type of team they will be and after that game in Dallas, I knew they had a rough season ahead of them. The 2 Penn St teams that were nearly as hyped as Michigan was last year that we played in 2012 and 2011 had much more up front as far as talent than that Michigan team and I don't see this year being much different for them with their schedule being tougher (maybe not tougher, but their tougher games are all together).
I agree. I just like to throw in an upset.
Everyone coming back for Wisconsin, doesn't mean a ton with an entire new staff coming in. The new staff has been a spread staff in recent years, but I doubt that is what Alvarez brought him in to run at Wisconsin. That puzzled me honestly when they hire was made. Not a bad hire, but just not a perfect fit for what Alvarez has been very clear in that past about what Wisconsin football needs to be to compete.
You can point to what Wisconsin did in the last 2 games of the season, but I can also point to rest of the season. This is a team that was 2 games over .500 and lost 4 of their last 6, so we aren't talking about a top 10 team from last season here.
The question isn't how many games Illinois can win. It's which games. No sane person would pick them to beat Wisky.
A big upset is going to happen at some point during the B1G schedule. That just happened to be the trap game I picked. It's on the road and just before a bye week and could be a game Wisconsin doesn't care too much about.
I think you are looking at this one game too much though, but I would also point out that Illinois returns everyone that caught, threw, or ran with the ball last season.....even as poorly as they did those things that matters a tiny bit.
Wisconsin lost six assistant coaches prior to 2012, including their OC and OL coach. They were a mess offensively the first few games of the season. Beilema fired the new OL he had hired midseason and promoted someone else. And he stepped in himself to turn things around. They were a much better team by the end of the season. In contrast, Illinois was worse at the end of the season than the beginning. There was talk of Beckman being fired after only one season. Again, anyone can throw out a crazy upset pick. But there is nothing tangible to point to to suggest Illinois will beat Wisky this year. Could it happen? Yeah, sure. But it's about as likely as Arkansas beating Bama. I certainly wouldn't put any money on it.
We beat Illinois last year 45-0. Putting the exact same players on the field this year is not a recipe for success.
I am not betting on that game at the moment.
Just curious though to when Wisconsin turned it around. Did they get everything going in time to finish 2-4? In all honesty, Wisconsin was a pretty bad team last year as well, when you really look at their season. The big win against Nebraska doesn't make it look that bad, but it still wasn't a good season.....and no, winning the B1G under the circumstances they won it, doesn't change that.
They also only beat Illinois by 17 points at home last season as well and I would say that Illinois has to be a tad better this season and I wouldn't say either way for Wisconsin yet. I guess I am saying they will be better though since I have them going 6-2 in the B1G instead of 4-4 last season.
This is where you just lost all credibility. How does Bell in any way remind you of Wisconsin RBs? Wisconsin RBs were overrated because UW had monster OLs that opened up huge holes for them. Bell ran behind one of the worst OL in the B1G and in an offense with very little passing threat. He ran into stacked fronts with extremely weak blockers in front of him and still grinded out some yards. I don't know if Bell's game translates well to the NFL but to insinuate he was an overrated college RB or reminiscent of UW RBs is absurd.
And Wisconsin only beat them by 17 and needed 2 4th quarter TDs to make that happen. The game was 7-7 at the half and 10-7 heading into the 4th quarter.
@MSU, Nebraska, @NW, @Iowa, tOSU?
Besides Iowa, those are all games that are going to be tight for Michigan. I am not sure what Michigan has done that would make anyone think otherwise unless they are just a huge homer.
Big and slow. That is how he reminded me of many Wisconsin running backs in the past.
I agree, 3 yards is definitely some yards.
He was a good back. I am not denying that. I am just saying he wasn't as good as I thought originally personaly and he definitely should never have gotten almost 400 carries in a season.
Michigan St should be better on offense this year since they won't just rely on that, IMO. It will force them to be more versatile and develop some other way to approach a defense.
They relied on Bell and he just wasn't they guy to get it done when it mattered, whether it be because of the OL or not...it still didn't get done.
This post was edited by BetterOff 12 months ago
I don't see Michigan doing any worse than 9-3. The msu game in east lansing is a toss up, always is. Their rb and wide receiver situation can't be more of the same this year because the defense will pucker again late in games from being gassed. I don't know what to expect from Penn State. If Nebraska doesn't improve their defense Gardner will have a field day against them like Denard did in 2011. The game at northwestern could be tough. I think they'll be more of the same this year. I'm expecting more of the same from Iowa with their Greg Davis offense experiment. The osu game will be The Game once again. Already looking forward to it.
This post was edited by UMWolverines 12 months ago
Did you watch the MSU spring game? Maxwell looks like he is literally about to poop his pants every single play. I'd say one of MSU's other 3 QBs has a greater chance of starting more games than Maxwell next year. Addition by subtraction arguments are dumb.
That's probably because they had no passing game. Maxwell threw some terrible balls plus the receivers were dropping everything that actually got to them. Now this year they have a questionable running game.
MSU will be a tough game. I'll give you that one.
I'm not that worried about Nebraska. In Hoke's first year we creamed them, then last year the game was very close until Denard went down. They still did not win convincingly, even though they had a whole half where Michigan didn't move the ball AT ALL.
What has NW done to prove they can beat us? Until Fitzgerald proves he can win close games, don't see how you can really chalk that up as a NW win.
tOSU - They're certainly the toughest opponent on the schedule, but I don't think they're that far ahead of us. You know how the ball bounced are way pretty much the whole season in Hoke's 11-2 season? Yeah, the ball bounced their way in 2012. They barely squeaked by Cal, IU, MSU, Purdue, Wiscy, and UM.
In the discussion we had a while back, you agreed with me that Denard crippled Borges as far as playcalling goes. Our offense should be better now that we actually have a competent QB, the OL should be better as well. So should the defense, but even if the defense stayed the same as last year, it'd still be great.
The defense pretty much held Nebraska as best as they could until they were too tired from all the 3 and outs. It was 16-9 after 3 and Michigan had I don't even want to know how many 3 and outs.
Exactly. Nebraska couldn't even move the ball on us, and our defense was on the field for the vast majority of the 3rd quarter. The defense had like 2 minute breaks, then it was back on the field.
*2 minute real time, not game time.
This post was edited by TAMUWolverine 12 months ago
I don't know which game was more agonizing to watch, that one or the notre dame game. It was gut wrenching watching the defense stop nebraska and the offense coming out and gain 3 yards at most in 3 downs over and over. The in the notre dame game we'd get in notre dame territory and turn it over 5 times.
I agree that Denard crippled Borges and that Michigan will be better this year than last year.
The biggest difference to me is just where the games fall on the schedule. NW is an easier game when surrounded by Minnesota and Iowa than when coming off @MSU and Nebraska, IMO. I did have Michigan beating NW FWIW as well. I just think that stretch is going to be a tough one to come out better than 3-2. I also have Michigan winning @Penn St which could be a tough game depending on how Penn St transitions this season. They have good talent and if they can stay healthy, they could be very tough by
October as well.
Here is how I break down Michigan's schedule:
Notre Dame- loss based on it being the 2nd game. If this game was a couple of weeks later, my pick would easily change.
@Penn St- win that could be a tough one, IMO
Indiana- win, but this could be a scary game for everyone in the league.
@MSU- loss based on location, but this could be the difference in setting up a division championship game against Nebraska the next week.
Nebraska- loss, but definitely could be a win.
@NW- win, but another scary game, especially with where it falls on the schedule.
tOSU- loss. I think tOSU is just a better team at this point that has a chance to really improve this year. Last season was a very shaky 12-0 season.
Don't like the matchups against Notre Dame or tOSU.
PSU, NW, MSU, and Nebraska are winnable and losable.
Nebraska was for me. Just knowing the whole time that Michigan had no chance as long as Bellomy was in there was agonizing.
I'm not usually one to make guarantees but there's no way we lose all three against Notre Dame, Nebraska, and OSU.
I had Michigan going 8-4 last year also, based on schedule. Looking at the schedule, Michigan is 8-4 worst case, 12-0 best case, this year.
In your eyes, what is the difference in playing ND in the 2nd game and playing them in the 4th game.
Agreed. Michigan is 14-0 at home under Hoke and they are going to go 4-3 at home this year? Don't see it.
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