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I believe if both teams play well. 24-6 bama. But if bama turns the ball over like they have been doing lately and Notre Dame plays a clean ball game,,, things could be interesting.
Did you just say that LSU had a superior QB to . . . . anybody?
Michigan State does not and will not run the 3-4 defense.
Yes. Mett played much better down the stretch and was one of the only reasons LSU was close to beating Bama.
For the title game I'd take Mett anyday over Golson. You wouldn't?
I'd give the edge to Golson just because of his legs. Neither guy is scaring me with their arm.
The talk about Jones struggling mostly goes back to the Tamu game where he got abused a few times. That said, it's like when they say Tom Brady had a bad game because he threw for 350 and 4 TD's but had 3 picks. If they were talking about Sanchez, that would be a helluva game. Not saying he hasn't been beaten a few times by big 0's, but he is exceptionally good.
Lets clear up a couple misperceptions about this Bama team.
This team isn't near as dominant as last years. It's probably not as good, all around, as the 2009 title team.
This years defense is OVERRATED. Stats lie. They don't get off the field on 3rd and longs. Weak secondary due to slow safety reactions and our 2nd CB. Geno Smith has really stepped up though giving us extremely good play at boundary corner with Milliner(I believe that's right, CB1) and Star.
Our offense is very talented but AJ tightens up in big games this year and they don't protect the ball. In our 3 biggest games this year we have 2+ turnovers in each.
That's a recipe for disaster against a tough ND team. Take the points, bet ND money line and make bank. ND wins 23-21.
Stats lie? You would think Bama didn't have the number 2 defense against scoring by reading this. Yep, AJ was real tight in that last drive in Death Valley, wasn't he? We played bad against A&M yet AJ got us inside the 10 at the end with a chance to win that crazy game. Most observers know that we let that get away from us by not running the ball. (A scramble by AJ doesn't count the same as handing the ball to Lacy.) It should be fun to see how ND and Bama match up. But if anyone takes this wager advice, please do not bet your light bill money! It's cold this time of the year.
Great thread, guys. Lots of good discussion.
As a lifelong ND fan, from Mobile, married to a Bama grad (and obviously hardcore CFB fan - yes, I'm a lucky guy), I am extremely familiar with both schools. I have not missed watching an ND game for the better part of 20 years, and I've seen nearly every Bama game over the last 7 season (skipped some of the PPV debacles). Admittedly, I rooted for Bama, initially, just to keep the peace (happy wife, happy life); however, over the last 5, or so, years I've genuinely rooted for Bama because I like and respect them. Naturally, this is a dream match-up for me. I will obviously be rooting for ND, and I fully expect a tremendous game.
I whole-heartedly believe that Bama is the most physical and dominant OL in CFB. But I also believe that ND will be the most physical DL they will have faced. Our DL keep Te'o (and the other LBs) clean. In addition to being tremendous pass rushers (remember they go through the OL, rather than around), they are extremely disciplined. That is what separates them from Georgia.
One guy who scares me and is, IMO, the best player on Bama (by a wide margin) is Chance Warmack. That guy is a superstar, perenial All-Pro type player. I like Barrett a whole lot. He is a class act and a superb representative for Bama and CFB. He's obviously a very smart and talented player, but I do think the matchup with Nix is a bad one for him. Nix, IMO, has been every bit as important to the ND defense, this year, as Te'o. He's starting to get some acclaim, but he is still the most underrated player in the country for my money. That guy makes our D work. If Barrett is able to stalemate Nix, on his own, then we're going to have a VERY hard time stopping Bama's run. My hope is that Bama has to commit Chance to Steen to help out.
I agree with Spartan that Bama's offense is one of the most efficient in the country. They rarely put a wrong foot forward. ND's offense is clearly not at this level; however, I would be careful saying that we're not very good. We have been able to move the ball on everyone; however, finishing the red zone, has been atrocious. No team has left more points on the board than ND. Coincidentally, our saving grace has been our red zone defense, which has been unimaginably good, allowing a TD in less than 1 in every 4 trips to the RZ.
I bet this game will feature a couple of 3 and outs (from each side), mixed in with a healthy amount of ~6 minute drives. I cannot imagine too many "explosive" plays. The key will be getting in the end zone. I think the only way this game gets out of hand is if there is a disporportionate amount of TOs.
POTW 6.4.2012 - 6.10.2012 & 3.4.2013 - 3.10.2013
You should watch more football.
Mostly true with the exception of the analysis on McCarron. He threw for over 200 yards in the 4th quarter against A&M. Crap play calling and a missed pick (illegal but still can be done with right technique) on the interception is why he didn't have another 4th quarter come back.
Golson won't be able to do anything against Bama's defense. He could barely do anything against most anyone's defense. That's the reason they were in so many close games. Not the ND defense fault. ND offense is very average.
I see people questioning my comment about AJ in big games. Lets look at his stats from his three biggest games each year as a starter (Ark, LSU, LSU in 2011 and LSU, TAMU, and UGA in 2012).
Ark - 15-20, 200, 2 TD, 0 INT
LSU - 16-28, 199, 0 TD, 1 INT
LSU - 23-34, 234, 0 TD, 0 INT
LSU - 14-27, 165, 1 TD, 0 INT
TAMU - 21-34, 309, 1 TD, 2 INT
UGA - 13-21, 162, 1 TD, 1 INT
So in total (math in head since on phone so feel free to double check), he's 103-164, 1,269 yards, 5 TD, 4 INT.
That's an average of 62.8%, 211 yards, .83 TDs, .67 INT per game.
Not exactly seeing in either the stat lines or averages how he performs well in those big games.
And if it weren't for his bad play in the majority of those two games (LSU and UGA) he wouldn't have had to make a play late. His erratic play leading to so many 3 and outs has killed our defense in big games as much as the opposing teams have. I'm not putting all the blame on him, but our D barely even got a rest against LSU and early in the TAMU game.
I think it's unfair to lay all of that at the feet of AJ. Some of it is him, yes, some of it is playcalling and obvious passing formations, and a lot of it also has to do with injuries to him, as well as guys like Fowler, White, and Bell. Fowler would have been a threat at H-back that we currently don't have. This offense is at its best when it has a guy like Smelley or Peek who can be a receiving threat. Teams had to respect Bell's speed, and it was missed in the SECCG vs UGA. White was a pretty good all around threat as well.
If Notre Dame can not run the ball,,, the game will be over half way through the third. The nation's #1 rush defense is legit.
I think you should look to the stats from Stanford - ND game for a clue as to how this will go.
Stefan Taylor ran for 102 yards against the stout ND run Defense and managed to muster up 13 points.
Notre dame rushed for 150 yards combined from their RBs.
I think Eddie Lacy and Yeldon combo is a much better combo than Taylor and Whoever else was running for Stanford with a much better Offensive Line for Bama. Alabama has a much better QB and WRs to keep the defense honest with. I think Alabama runs the ball at will, much like against Georgia. However I dont think ND will be able to move the ball anywhere near the likes of Georgia. I know that Bama's defense is not as good as PREVIOUS Bama defenses, but they are still a good defense with a very good and balanced offense behind a top notch o-line. Alabama controls the ball and clock, punches the ball in the end zone 4-5 times with ND getting lucky once or twice. Alabama 34-14.
I know it sounds like i am not giving ND much credit. That is because I am not. They rave about their SOS and joke about ours Yet they have not played a team like LSU in an enviroment like LSU and won. They havent played a team as good as Georgia and won. Notre Dame had to get help from the refs to beat the best team they played all year with Stanford in South Bend. The one team UA and ND both played was Michigan. That speaks pretty loudly. Bama won on a neutral field 41-14. Notre Dame won at home 13-6. Notre Dame is nothing special and they will find that out Jan 7. From a tradition stand point it is an epic game. But thats it. The Tide rolls just like 90 percent of the time since Sabans second year at Bama. 55-6 since his second year. Pretty impressive.
Also, Alabama since 1992 is 4-0 is national title games. We dont lose these games. This is the only thing Alabama fans care about. It is what we are ridiculed to no end for. This is way more important to Bama fans and Saban and the players know this. We dont lose these games. It wont happen, we dont accept defeat if given the chance to play for it all. We are college football. Never forget that domers.
This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by iRollTide205 19 months ago
Would seem logical, but Golson was pulled early in that game. The Everett Golson that played in that game and the one I saw the last 4/5 games are completely different players. He wasn't running much, that has changed. Decision making and overall command of getting the plays off in a timely fashion are much improved..
come on now. I wouldn't take Mettenberg over Golson ever. UGA's QB was known to play poorly against good competition. One play that stands out was during the SECCG when he had a wide open receiver, CB was at least 2/3 feet behind him, for a TD and he severely underthrew the ball leading to a critical INT for Bama. Same play he had his clock cleaned on. Golson brings mobility and can turn nothing into something, by running or throwing.
you'd lose. Mett is a statue back there and had trouble recognizing the blitz all year. Not even going to get into how many open receivers he overthrew.
Most likely to least likely outcome.
1) Bama wins close game
2) ND wins close game
3) Bama blows out ND
4) ND blows out Bama
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