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Kiper MOCK DRAFT 3.0

  • Indianapolis ColtsRecord: 2-14* Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
    No change here, even with the change to the future of Peyton Manning. Luck was going to land with the Colts; it was only a matter of whether he'd be serving an apprenticeship. I'm interested to see if he gets a deal done well before the draft so he can dive into the playbook. You know the scouting report. Arm strength, talent, size, smarts, leadership, intangibles -- it's all there. Luck is currently working hard out in Palo Alto to further refine his talents.

    St. Louis RamsRecord: 2-14* Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma St.
    Go ahead and put a big asterisk here, because I think this pick will be taken (most likely) by the Browns, with the Redskins also right there. The Browns can do a little more in terms of draft compensation all things being equal, but if Dan Snyder really wants his man, I'd never assume he'd come in second in a bidding war. Blackmon we know could fit with the Rams, even if they draft at No. 4 or No. 6, just based on how the picks could line up.

    Minnesota VikingsRecord: 3-13* Matt Kalil, OT, USC
    This is one I'm going to stick with. I've liked the pick since the first mock, and I don't see a reason to change. Minnesota needs an upgrade at left tackle, and Kalil is the rare one who could step into that position right away at the NFL level. There's a lot of talk about which quarterback will go where right now, but this pick is about keeping Christian Ponder upright for the Vikings. They won't know what they have unless they can block for him. And it's obvious this will help the running game, too.

    Cleveland BrownsRecord: 4-12* Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
    The assumption is they'll need to move up to No. 2 to get RG3, but I can't reflect that until anything is official. I don't think the combine changed anything in terms of where Griffin was likely to land, but it certainly didn't hurt him. He showed off athleticism that would have been impressive for the top wide receivers and running backs. Given his experience, leadership qualities and overall skill set as an accurate passer with a potent arm, I don't see it as much of a leap for Griffin to be a Week 1 starter in 2012.

    Tampa Bay BuccaneersRecord: 5-11

    * Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
    This is one more I'm sticking with. Richardson could land here despite the presence of LaGarrette Blount, and depending on how his workouts go, I can see a team trading into this position to take him. Great running teams need more than one good back, and Richardson is superior to Blount. Further, if the Bucs are going with a best player available at this spot, Richardson fits the bill. I can also see the Bucs taking a close look at cornerbacks, which brings the next guy on the board into play, but I like Richardson here until I get a clear signal they're going another direction.

    Washington RedskinsRecord: 5-11* Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
    Go ahead and pop the asterisk here, too. We know the Redskins are actively looking at moving up, and they could also be in the race for Manning. Obviously, what the Skins could do in free agency for their offense is something I'm considering. If they were to get Manning, this pick could turn into an O-lineman. As for Claiborne, amidst all that's up in the air, he still makes a lot of sense. He's the top corner available, and is actually a better pure cover corner than Patrick Peterson, the No. 5 overall pick from last year. The kid can play, and did nothing to hurt his stock in Indy.

    Jacksonville JaguarsRecord: 5-11Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina
    Coples wasn't quite as dominant as I thought he'd be during the 2011 season, but the draft process has reinforced what a lot of front office folks believed, which is that he's clearly the top 4-3 defensive end in the draft. The Jags need pass-catchers, but if Blackmon isn't available, Coples fits. Jacksonville sacked opposing quarterbacks fewer than two times a game in 2011, and Coples is a great fit for the scheme. He has great length at 6-foot-6, and the size to hold up in the run game, complementing his pass-rush skills. Jacksonville is another team that simply needs to upgrade its talent level, so the Jaguars shouldn't reach based on need.

    Miami DolphinsRecord: 6-10Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
    The Dolphins will be adding a quarterback -- Manning is obviously in play -- and Reiff puts the finishing touches on an improved offensive line. Reiff was exceptional this past season, and given how complete he is right now, stepping in immediately on the right side shouldn't be a problem. I've said that outside linebacker would make sense here, but Miami knows offensive line play will be a big part of their success in 2012, regardless of who takes the snaps. They went O-line in Round 1 last year with good results, and doubling down wouldn't hurt them.

    Carolina PanthersRecord: 6-10* Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis
    The Carolina defense couldn't stop the run last year and had to rotate a pair of rookies on the defensive interior. The offense could use a couple pieces, but they'll be able to score points. Carolina needs to find some stops. Poe was the story of the combine on the defensive side of the ball. He posted numbers for a big man we haven't seen since Haloti Ngata, and if his technique matches the physical traits, he can be a really good one. His size will get him pegged for a 3-4, but I like him better in a 4-3.

    Buffalo BillsRecord: 6-10Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina
    Ingram's stock is on the rise, and the Bills need a pass-rusher. He's billed as a defensive end based on the system at South Carolina, but Buffalo can use him in their personnel groupings and not limit what he does best. He's a pass-rusher, but isn't a guy that becomes a liability against the run. I think there is still growth in Ingram's game, as he learns to better disengage from blocks. With Steve Johnson back in the fold, the Bills should put their focus on defense early.

    Kansas City ChiefsRecord: 7-9* Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College
    Kuechly came to Indy with concerns about his size. But he weighed in at over 240 pounds, easing some of those concerns, and then shined in workouts, proving the added bulk won't slow him down; a classic case where a guy answers the big questions and solidifies his stock. Romeo Crennel needs linebackers with great instincts who can be physical in the run game, make stops and also get into the backfield when asked. Kuechly is simply a machine, a prototype for what you want in an interior linebacker. I can see the Chiefs looking for a nose tackle, so if Poe is around, that pick makes sense as well.

    Seattle SeahawksRecord: 7-9Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M
    There's no question that Tannehill's stock was helped when a couple of other QBs opted to stay in college, but his growth curve has been exceptional, and he's a guy you draft with a very high ceiling in mind. Good arm, the athleticism you'd expect from a former wide receiver and with very good instincts for the position, some team will take him in the upper half of Round 1. We know Seattle isn't set on a long-term solution at QB, and Tannehill makes sense as a guy that gets a full year of developmental time.

    Arizona CardinalsRecord: 8-8Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
    Offensive line would be the more obvious pick here, but I want to see what the Cardinals do in free agency first. Floyd would be a great complement to Larry Fitzgerald in that offense, and give the Cardinals an enviable pair of guys that can work underneath, go deep and also post up smaller defensive backs in the red zone. Outside of the offensive line, Floyd is as much as you could do to help a quarterback.

    Dallas CowboysRecord: 8-8Mark Barron, S, Alabama
    We all know the story. Dallas was a mess defending the pass in 2011, and it might look for help both in free agency and here. Barron's a perfect fit for the Cowboys. He's the best safety in the draft, and the Cowboys can't go wrong with either the top safety or the top cornerback here. He didn't work out in Indianapolis, coming off double hernia surgery, but it's not a lingering concern.

    Philadelphia EaglesRecord: 8-8* Michael Brockers, DT, LSU
    No team was softer up the middle than Philly in 2011, and in Brockers the Eagles get a big, active player who can both take up blocks and penetrate. He weighed in at 322 pounds at the NFL combine, heavier than I've ever had him listed, but I don't see him as a prototype 3-4 nose tackle. My guess is he'll play a little lighter once he gets into camp, and the Eagles will benefit, particularly against the run. This is like a baseball team -- they need to build out the middle of the field on defense. If Kuechly is here, that makes sense as well.

    New York JetsRecord: 8-8Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama
    Rex Ryan needs a guy that can get to the quarterback on his own, meaning without a blitz package, and Upshaw is that kind of player. He plays with a high motor, sheds blocks well with quickness and violent hands and makes plenty of sense in Ryan's system. He's also bigger than he was listed at Alabama. The Jets could also grab Barron if he's on the board, or get a defensive lineman if they see a fit.

    Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland)Record: 8-8* Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama
    Johnathan Joseph left a void last year when he landed in Houston as a free agent, and Kirkpatrick will fill the void. This is a big, physical corner who doesn't give up much in coverage given his size (nearly 6-3), which makes him particularly good inside the red zone. He's also tough against the run. I have the Bengals as a team who could trade up for Richardson if he starts to fall on the board, but if they don't, Kirkpatrick offers immediate help.

    San Diego ChargersRecord: 8-8Whitney Mercilus, DE, Illinois
    The book on Mercilus is he's an athletic, long-armed pass-rush specialist who simply dominated as a senior. The track record over a few seasons isn't there, but he could be a steal if what we saw in 2011 is what Mercilus truly is. The Chargers need help on the offensive line, but I think free agency will help us get a clearer picture. Mercilus is a great value here, but we'll see how the needs shift.

    Chicago BearsRecord: 8-8Mike Adams, OT, Ohio St.
    It looks like the Bears will be really aggressive in targeting wide receivers in free agency, and the offensive line still has to be better. Mike Tice knows as well as anybody that Jay Cutler can be successful in the passing game first if he's not getting hit on every play. Adams wasn't a star in terms of testing, but he's really good in pass protection, and the Bears could use more of that trait along the line. He moves his feet and doesn't get beat inside, but he has the length and technique to protect the edge.

    Tennessee TitansRecord: 9-7* David DeCastro, OG, Stanford
    The Titans also need pass-rush help, but if things break this way, DeCastro represents tremendous value, and that offensive line could use the help after a year where the running game totally fell apart. DeCastro is the kind of player you can draft who won't get big headlines, but will pay immediate dividends because they can plug him in Week 1. Obviously, if a pass-rusher they like falls to No. 20, they could go that direction.

    Cincinnati BengalsRecord: 9-7Cordy Glenn, OG, Georgia
    I have guard as one of the top needs for the Bengals, and if they don't get DeCastro at this spot, Glenn isn't much of a drop. Cincinnati will have added help in the run game next year, but it also needs to get better up front. Glenn is a guy who has also spent time at tackle, and could be moved there in a pinch, but he dominates on the inside and is surprisingly quick given his huge frame. Another good piece in an offense primed to get better.

    Cleveland Browns (from Atlanta)Record: 4-12Lavonte David, LB, Nebraska
    This is a bit of a gut call for me. I'm not sure exactly how teams will use David, but the guy can flat-out play. The question on David was size, but he checked in at 233 pounds last week, and didn't appear to lose a step in the workout phase, which made me rethink my second-round grade. David played smaller at Nebraska, but you won't find a guy that simply flew all over the field the way David did anywhere in the draft. Cleveland needs help in several spots, but David will be productive.

    Detroit LionsRecord: 10-6* Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina
    Detroit could get into the mix for a cornerback during free agency -- Cortland Finnegan is a name that has come up often -- but I'd still be shocked if the Lions go two rounds without adding a corner. They have plenty of talent up front, and they need to turn their pass rush into more interceptions. Gilmore is a bigger corner, a guy that can handle big wide receivers, but he also doesn't lose much in terms of quickness. I can also see the Lions going O-line or linebacker here, but corner is a big need.

    Pittsburgh SteelersRecord: 12-4Dont'a Hightower, LB, Alabama
    As part of their purge to get in good standing with the salary cap, the Steelers had to cut veteran James Farrior. While they have some young talent at linebacker, given the way their system works, I think they'll want to find Dick LeBeau another player that can help early. Hightower was an exceptional young player for Bama before he lost a year with an ACL injury, but he recovered this year and might have plenty of growth left. The Steelers have new needs, and Hightower fills one.

    Denver BroncosRecord: 8-8* Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi St.
    Denver has the pass rush on the edge but must add more depth on the inside, because despite the flashes this defense had last year, overall the Broncos profile as a team that has some holes on that side of the field. Cox is an active guy, a penetrator who will be a great fit in the Denver system, and can help them get some inside push. Cornerback is also a concern, but we'll know more after free agency. If Tannehill is still on the board at this stage, it could make for a pretty interesting draft night.

    Houston TexansRecord: 10-6* Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor
    When the Texans lost Andre Johnson last year, it completely eliminated their ability to stretch the field. That's a problem, because this is a system that thrives on regular use of play-action packages, and it loses a lot of juice if there's nobody around to challenge defenses deep. Wright can do that. His performance in Indy wasn't his best, but his tape shines -- you see a guy that plays fast in pads and beats people deep. His hands are also fine.

    New England Patriots (from Saints)Record: 13-3Kendall Reyes, DT, Connecticut
    I had Reyes to the Patriots with their other first-round pick in a previous mock, and he sticks, albeit a little higher, this time around. The Patriots know they have to get better along the defensive front, and that could come via free agency (Mario Williams?). Still, I'd be surprised if they don't target it in the draft, even though Bill Belichick never fails to make moves and surprise during the draft. Reyes provides an active run-stuffer up front, a guy that can eat up blocks and free up rushers.

    Green Bay PackersRecord: 15-1* Nick Perry, LB, USC
    The Packers need help in the secondary, but a lot of that starts with the pass rush. It's not an exaggeration to say the Packers' pass rush fell off a cliff towards the end of last season. In Perry, you get a guy who played with his hand on the ground at USC, but should be able to stand up for the Packers and provide the complement they need. And hey, the last time the Packers looked for pass-rush help out of USC it worked out just fine.

    Baltimore RavensRecord: 12-4Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin
    Ray Lewis coming back makes me like this pick more, so I'm sticking with it. As I've said before, Matt Birk will need a replacement at center, and Konz is the best one in the draft. He's like a good quarterback out there, able to call the defensive looks, and will be a big help to Joe Flacco. The Ravens were a mess up front for portions of 2011 and will need to add help there.

    San Francisco 49ersRecord: 13-3* Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech
    Hill set Indy ablaze, going sub-4.4 in the 40 while measuring 6-foot-4. San Francisco, meet the deep threat you've been looking for. It's no secret the 49ers need more out of their wide receivers, and Hill brings a new aspect to the table, with elite size and track speed to stretch defenses both for himself, and to open up things underneath. He'll need an adjustment period as he gets used to a more conventional offense, but some team is going to fall in love with the measurables.

    New England PatriotsRecord: 13-3Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama
    There's no question Jenkins comes with baggage, but without it you're talking about a player in the conversation 20 spots higher on the board. If you like your locker room and feel like you can keep him on track, this is the kind of guy you take a risk on at a big need position. I still think corner is one for the Patriots, who could obviously look at pass-rush help here. But put a talent like Jenkins in a culture like New England's, and you could have a steal.

    New York GiantsRecord: 9-7Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford
    The Super Bowl was great for the party, but the Giants took a hit on the personnel side, where they lost a pair of tight ends to injury. Fleener has overtaken Dwayne Allen of Clemson as the top tight end on my board, and the Giants need one. He has great hands, will run a lot better than people think and knows how to work in a pro-style system, lined up on the line of scrimmage. He's a great red zone target. The Giants also need offensive line help, or could target a linebacker here, but Fleener makes a lot of sense.

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  • Bulldawgs247

    deltadawg82

    No way Brockers is better than fletcher cox or should he go higher

    This post was edited by Boner 20 months ago

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    future bulldog

  • Anyone have Mayocks latest mock draft?

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    THE ONLY THING I'M ADDICTED TO IS WINNING--CHARLIE SHEEN

  • BamaOnLine

    Ichabod

    Thanks squats.

    I like Barron at that spot for my Boys. Maybe we won't completely suck on defense this year

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  • Would love for Nick Perry to fall to the Packers.

    "People always ask me if I wish I were bigger. I tell them no. I always wanted to be a miniature badass." Dustin Pedroia

  • Geaux247

    Lesticals

    Yeah there's no homerism in your post.

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    Danielle Hunter, Jamario Rasco, Anthony FREAK Johnson.. DL wrecking crew of 2013.

  • Yeah I barely sensed any, good call

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  • Agree as a Philly fan want Fletcher Cox.

    This post was edited by Boner 21 months ago

  • BamaOnLine

    Ichabod

    What? There are no homers on tBB

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  • Bama was all over that list. I like it.

  • Can't see the Cowboys reaching that much for Barron.

  • BamaOnLine

    Ichabod

    Best safety in the draft when they need DB help bad? GTFO

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  • Geaux247

    Lesticals

    6'6", 322 DTs don't come around often. His ceiling is extremely high considering he is only a redshift Sophomore.. 2 years Brockers will be a man child.

    Cox is good but I haven't seen enough of his game to make a comment on him.

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    Danielle Hunter, Jamario Rasco, Anthony FREAK Johnson.. DL wrecking crew of 2013.

  • Jenkins reuniting with Spikes, Cunningham and Hernandez in New England would be cool.

  • You're so right. They'll probably take Neiko.

  • Splitting hairs between Cox and Brockers and teams boards probably depends on scheme. Great prospects

    "People always ask me if I wish I were bigger. I tell them no. I always wanted to be a miniature badass." Dustin Pedroia

  • BamaOnLine

    Grand Slam

  • HuskersIllustrated

    Oryhara

    I agree but I will be happy with either scenario.

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    In memory of Tusks.

  • AuburnUndercover

    Big A

  • AuburnUndercover

    mizAU

    Upshaw to the Jets is just ridiculous.

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    Huddles are for rookies.

  • I'm very impressed by Cox. As big as he is he can move.

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  • Bulldawgs247

    deltadawg82

    It ain't none. I just call it like i see it. Fletcher was sec d linemen of the week 4 times then look at his combine numbers and tell me if you didn't know anything about either one which would you take first.

    This post was edited by Boner 20 months ago

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    future bulldog

  • Bulldawgs247

    deltadawg82

    Can't make some people see that. Then cox is way more versatile. He could play dt in a 4-3 or de in a 3-4. Brockers is dt all the way. Cox ran a 4.7 at 298. That's ridiculous

    This post was edited by Boner 20 months ago

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    future bulldog

  • And whats more impressive is that his 298 isn't flab like a lot of these DL. He looks pretty dang solid.

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