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I think that the optimism for Michigan's defense comes from the return of everybody in the back 7.
This is Michigan, fergodsakes.
very good points macks,
i would guess that um is favored because um can stack the box and force an unproven qb to beat them...
and i have been slammed for my homefield advantage point, but i still contend its huge in college football...
maxwell will be in the biggest game of his life and he is at the most important position on the field...if he does well, msu will win...but thats just it, IF, because nobody really knows now how he will fare, hence um giving points early on...
Denard can't beat MSU. It's pretty simple. We own him. He's scared of our defense, and should be.
"If you're worried about Wolverine fans, just move to Pasadena. You'll never have to deal with 'em."
4 pts sounds high to me. UM isn't known for a super special home field advantage. The game is not at night. And it's about a 90 minute drive by bus. I would give 3 pts for home field. That means Vegas considers us a 2 1/2 to 3 pts better team. I think that's a bit light, but who am I to argue with Vegas?
UM is very solid at home and gets treated as such by the oddsmakers to the tune of more than the standard 3 pts (which is less standard than in the NFL)
2011- 8-0 at home
So 42-7 at home the last 7 years (sans RR era).. that's pretty darn good and a pretty good advantage
This post has been edited 4 times, most recently by CaliSpartan0606 20 months ago
You're not flying in from the West Coast. You get full practice time at your own facilities. You get to eat lunch and dinner at your place and sleep in your own beds. If it's a 3:30 pm game, you probably don't even have to get up extra early. It's a short bus ride to a venue you've played at every other year for more than 60 years. It's probably 2.5 points, but I gave you 3 to be nice.
Not sure why I'm discussing Vegas odds with someone who clearly doesn't know what he's talking about..
UM gets 2.5 pts for home field?? That's Minnesota territory
Vegas is always right on the dot.
And you guys realize Vegas' lines are just to get an even amount of money on both sides, right? Not necessarily what they think will happen?
There is no such thing as a standard home field advantage for every match up. It depends on many factors. In this instance, most are in your favor. For example, SDSU last year and AF this year would get more points to play at UM than MSU. Travel matters. Familiarity with the venue and opponent matters. It's a day game, not a night game (we are undefeated at home in night games). All those factors cut in MSU's favor. If MSU was unusually bad on the road, it would matter. Is that what you are saying? Is MSU a worse road team than average? And even if I accepted your 4 point HFA, Vegas still is giving us 1.5 to 2 points on top of that. Vegas considers us the better team.
This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by MrWoodson 20 months ago
I'm not exactly sure what you mean by the first statement.. UM's rated 1-2 pts higher than MSU at this point in the season, so I would expect the spreads to be very similar (1-2 pts different) if comparing what AFA at UM is and what AFA at MSU is... Travel really doesn't come into affect and neither does familiarity with the venue or opponents.. Just because Hoke has faced AFA before, doesn't mean the spread will be larger vs. a UM coach who hasn't faced AFA before in the exact same situation
you also need to factor in the "public" option of the team..UM's got a huge fan base and in games like that, books can add on 1-2 pts, knowing it's still going to get the same action on UM at -32 and at -34.5 (ie. bump up across couple dead #s)
2nd statement.. c'mon.. 1-0
3rd statement.. I'm saying UM's HFA counts for more than 3 pts
4th statement-That's been established.. currently Vegas would favor UM over MSU on a neutral field by 1 pt or so in August, which, per my original statement is clear- Vegas thinks the game is very close to a PK and even
This post was edited by CaliSpartan0606 20 months ago
Most of what you wrote makes no sense. But one thing you wrote is correct and goes to the crux of the issue ... Vegas rates UM higher than MSU. So stop whining about the fact that most objective third party observers expect us to win the game. We are considered the better team and, using your math, we are being spotted 4 points in terms of HFA. The people who expect us to win are the sane and logical ones. The people who expect us to lose are wearing Green and White or Scarlet and Gray glasses.
From senior analyst from Caesars
Question: In a vacuum, what's Michigan's HFA worth in terms of pts? 3? 4? 5?
Answer: @ToddFuhrman one of the most over valued HFA's among the casual bettor. Elite venues get 5, I make UM's power # closer to 3.6 myself
So anyway where from 3.5 to 5 is UM's HFA...
But Tmart can
That's a generic comment. Whether it's accurate or not is irrelevant. The HFA in a game of AF @ UM is different than the HFA in a game of MSU @ UM. If you don't understand that, you should get out of the business.
I wouldn't say that Martinez was the reason Nebraska won. He had 80 yards passing, 1 TD, and 1 INT. Burkhead + Nebraska's defensive performance + MSU's terrible offensive playcalling was what won Nebraska the game. Looking forward to the rematch.
Of course.. I show stats from a guy who works in the business... and Woodson dismisses it as it's not relevant to UM's HFA..
Forgot how much UM fans hate stats
why is it when you lose its terrible play calling, but when osu lost to msu it was dominance?
thats weak, weak sauce...no excuses you lost to a better team...
so did osu to msu last yr...
Dude... I said Nebraska had a good defensive performance. I gave them credit. But MSU's playcalling certainly didn't help things.
10-2, losses to UM and OSU. Lock it.
T-Mart didn't do jack squat in that game. He looked like some MAC level walk-on playing in his first game. And it took Burkhead 35 carries to barely get over 100 yards. This year the run is going to be extremely emphasized over the pass, which we were doing particularly well against you guys, but for some inexplicable we wanted to try to beat you at your strength by throwing over the cover, hence why we say that game was very poorly called. All that said, I am pretty confident that the rematch in EL won't be all that close going our way.
-Boise State - W
-@ Central Michigan - W (yes, it's good for the state and gets us more money)
-Notre Dame - W
-Eastern Michigan - W
-Ohio State - W
-@ Indiana - W
-Iowa - W
-@ Michigan - W
-@ Wisconsin - L
- Nebraska - W
-Northwestern - W
-@ Minnesota - W
11-1. I could easily see an L to OSU though
This post was edited by Braintrust 20 months ago
Right now the passing game is merely a question mark, not necessarily a weakness. People act like a first-year starter at QB has never had a successful season. In fact, I'm pretty sure the majority of teams that won a BCS national championship did so with a first-year starter at QB (or at least an underclassman).
A lot of people are also acting like our whole season hinges on Maxwell. Our strength is going to be defense and running the ball -- that's how you win games in the Big Ten. And I firmly believe we'll effectively run the ball since we return 4/5 starters on the o-line and have Bell and Caper in the backfield. Maxwell won't be asked to be anything other than an effective game manager; throwing screens, short passes out of play-action, and the occasional shots deep. I'm pretty sure he's got the tools to handle that.
We aren't running a Texas Tech air-raid offense here, and trying to beat people in shoot-outs 47-45. If that was our style, I would be much more concerned.
Seriously, when was the last time we had issues at the skill positions? We've always had solid QBs, WRs and RBs, our issue was always the guys in the trenches, and we figure to be strong in that department this year, on both sides of the ball.
This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by JEK 20 months ago
"RCMB: You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainry." - some dude from MgoBlog
Okay, I guess Michigan doesn't have any weaknesses either, just questions.
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