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I think the large line is indicative of two things:
1. Alabama is not your run of the mill #2 team. The program is starting to resemble the USC teams of the mid-2000's in that they can be ranked anywhere in the top 3 or so but still dominate other top 10(ish) teams. Doesn't happen every time but it happens quite a bit.
Last year - Beat #1 LSU by 21 (after losing to them), beat #10 Arkansas by 24, beat #12 Florida by 28 (case in point, Florida was only #12 because of preseason rankings)
2010 - Beat #7 Michigan State by 42, beat #7 Florida by 25 (again, only ranked that highly due to preseason rankings)
2009 - Beat #1 Florida by 19, beat #2 Texas by 16, beat #7 Virginia Tech by 10
2008 - Beat #3 UGA by 11 (were up 31-0), beat #8 Clemson by 24 (another unwarranted preseason ranking)
Odds makers know this Alabama program is extremely talented and deep and if they play their best they can blow out most teams in college football. That's why Alabama also hasn't been an underdog in any game since 2009.
2. Michigan is overrated...and the odds makers know it. They won 11 games last year which is a big reason why they're #8 to start this season but who did they really beat? Their best win was who, Virginia Tech? They got blown out twice by a 4 loss Clemson team, didn't beat anybody worth mentioning themselves, and didn't belong in a BCS bowl game to begin with. Their name also helped put them in the top 10...just being Michigan is worth a few spots.
So, there you have it.
This post was edited by HADOUKEN 20 months ago
Or nobody is betting Michigan. So, they adjusted the points to entice bets. Cause that's what they do.. They make bets
What you eat, don't make me shit.
Ballsy but not ballsy enough to go moneyline
True but the line started out at 12.5 IIRC. Not exactly a small line to begin with considering the neutral field and the mere 6 spots separating the two teams.
I think the line is inflated because literally nobody expects michigan to win. Michigan is overrated some, but no way should there be such a large spread. Line is adjusted bc of bets, even if it doesn't make sense.
This post was edited by ReasonableDoubt 20 months ago
I think bama wins it, my problem is by how much....bama could woodshed them for sure, but being that it is the 1st game and bama is reloading alot of players, i can see why people would take ttun. I personally think the spread is very close to the outcome. I see bama up by 17-21 with ttun scoring late and screwing those that take the over...m2cents. I wont touch this game. To unpredictable for my conservative betting style.
That's correct. I'm guessing that line didn't produce. So, they adjusted come game week. Vegas wants you to bet. That's how they make money. The line doesn't bode well for Michigan.
I learned all I need to know about your football analysis when you said Tajh Boyd is good under pressure.
I know it's odd to see such a large spread given the teams' respective rankings but I still say it's about right. I think Michigan is a good team but I don't think they're on the level of Alabama but most importantly I think it's a terrible matchup for Michigan. Giving Saban 8 months to scheme for an offense that is essentially a one man show, Michigan re-tooling their DL while Alabama will likely have the best OL in the country and a stable of great RB's...
I just think Bama will win easily and that the line is true. We'll see in a couple days though.
Exactly, the line is a sucker bet for Michigan fans. They want Michigan suckers to put their money down because they will feel that their team will not lose by more than 14, and then they get blasted. Bama by 21 or 28 pts in this one. Easy Money.
UM is one of the most publicly bet teams in the nation..
I cannot even believe that you are talking. USC should beat Vandy. Also, I remeber when Clemson was a softy game for Auburn. Now, no one is 100% confident in either game. This is the real analysis.
Let's not go throwing around rankings as if they actually mean anything.
Unbowed, Unbent, Unbroken
How much do you personally have riding on this game? Only asking because a lot of people talk a lot of shit when it comes to betting lines, but never put their own coin up.
If I told you, you would not believe me. Let's just say a huge sum. My money is on Bama. I have watched football a long time, and Denard and the Wolverine offense will not be able to move the rock. Saban had a ton of respect for Joe Pa; therefore, bama did not wreck them the way they could have. Saban does not like Michigan. He does not like Hoke or Al Borges. Saban will not let up on Michigan. This game will not be pretty. I will guess that you will turn from the game and watch the Auburn/Clemson game or some other game.
Should probably tune into the USC Hawaii game, though the proposition of possibly facing this Trojan Machine may cause nightmares.
he publically puts out that he has $3mil on michigan
he doesnt publically tell you that he put $3 mil on bama and its a wash
i dont believe he has $3mil straight down on michigan. I know hes "money" mayweather but noone likes to lose that much
$50 bet with Rebels10 - Best of 3 Egg Bowls
**the $50 goes to others schools athletics dept**
So he can lose 300K?
Bama rolls IMO....VT game is a good indicator as you can have for the way Mich O will match up against the Bama D...We just S the bed on O and ST.
The guy is the highest paid athlete in the world this year and last year.
i dont believe he has $3mil straight down on michigan. ( wrong!)
Honestly... I'd see if you can take your bet back. I don't want to see somebody ruin their life over something like this.
Nice. He'll lose that bet, plus Im sure his boys robbed him blind while in the joint. Now he will have to fight Manny
Not guilty y'all got to feel me
The big plus about betting dogs is that if say Michigan is ahead or tied at half-time, then you can hedge with a 2nd half bet, with a good chance to hit the middle.
Edit: and the way this matchup goes, this is a prime type of game for this too happen. Most of us believe that Bama will wear Michigan down on both sides of the LOS and pull away. But Michigan can certainly keep it close or lead, playing on emotion and adrenaline in the first half. I think Floyd knows what he is doing here.
This post was edited by MJRuffalo 20 months ago
Well that will be 5 points less than what you lost to bama by...
Check out my 2 deep of UM's base 4-3 under defense, let me know your thoughts. Last updated: 3/28/12
Your team got away with a payed off ref. Sad!
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