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SEC Game Predictions (Week 9) (Long)

  • BamaOnLine

    Weedline

    ****Adjusted to accommodate the SEC Thursday Night game.

    1. (Thursday ESPN) (6:30pm) Kentucky vs Miss State- Ah, the epic showdown in Starkville. The game we are all waiting to see. OK not really, but you get the point. This game will more than likely keep the winner out of the SEC basement. With difficult SEC games left on each teams schedule, this is a chance for both teams to get an SEC win. Miss State set out with bowl hopes but saw such dreams all but crash upon the rocks in Auburn. But fear not State, with a win here, you would jump to 4 wins and have an attempt to get wins @Arkansas and at home against rival Ole Miss. Winning the three would be enough to become bowl eligible. But lose to UK, and see all post season hopes evaporate quicker than a Lane Kiffin head coach interview. Not only that, but a loss to UK would more than likely get Dan Mullen his walking papers. He knows that, and I think he will have his kids fired up Thursday night

    And while I look for a hyped up State team to come out and run the football. I then look for them to then run the football, then run the football again, then run it some more. Get the picture? Behind one of the better RB's in the SEC LaDarius Perkins, they are averaging almost 220 yards rushing a game. With UK giving up an average of 215 yards rushing a game, this one is primed for a lots of big runs and trench bullying. For UK to have a chance at moving the ball they will need to do it through the air. Miss State has a solid rush defense giving up just over 150 yards a game. And with UK's starting QB day-to-day, they might just need more than that. Turnovers and penalties could keep UK in the game. But if State lines up ready to play and limits their poor decisions, they win and win somewhat convincingly. UK has their backs against the wall here on national TV. Lets see what they're made of.

    Mississippi State- 34
    UK- 17

    2. (11:21) Texas A&M vs Vanderbilt- The lone early SEC game on the week is quite frankly one of the biggest. Texas A&M looks to rebound after a crushing defeat at home to inter-conference rival AU. And while the SEC West crown might be out their reach, they still have plenty to play for. With a 5-2 record, they just need to weather last weeks storm and come out the other side. Get a win here and they more than likely end up 8-2 (beating Vandy, UTEP, and Miss State) heading into Baton Rouge after a bye week. Winning this game is a must for A&M if they want to keep their Cotton Bowl hopes alive. Lose, and most would consider this season a disappointment. And a dissapointing season even before they get to LSU and Missouri to close the year would be bad. A&M needs to get back on track this week in the worst way and I think they will.

    And while Texas A&M looks to heal last weeks wounds, Vandy looks to continue their momentum after getting a huge upset victory over a good UGA team. With Vandy sitting at 4-3, they are not just eying a bowl bid at this point, but a good bowl bid. A&M looks to be the toughest test left on their schedule and if they were to pull off the win, it would put them at 5-3 heading into a bye week. After that, UF, UK, UT, and Wake Forest round out their regular season. None of those would be sure losses with UGA and A&M wins in your back pocket. Winning this game gives them a very real chance at 8 wins on the regular season and a chance to climb even higher.

    So far this season the Vandy defense has been hit or miss. One week they will hold Aaron Murray to around 100 yards passing, then the other, will let UAB throw for over 200. Their rushing defense is very much the same way. So what to think, huh? Well, the consistent occurring theme among Vandy loses seems to be balance. When they give up over 200 yards rushing, they lose. But while that's a key ingredient, giving up the same yardage in passing is the other. Keeping Vandy on tilt and keeping them honest on defense is the key. Balance. Balance. Balance. Throw to open up the pass, pass to open up the run. Vandy just does not seem to have the depth or athleticism on defense to stop a pissed off Johnny Football.

    Vandys ability to sustain time consuming drives, thus keeping Manziel off the field would be a start. Keeping their DL fresh and on the bench instead of chasing a ghost, would be the other. But the biggest key for a Vandy win is IMO, getting to JF early and often. We're not sure the extent of his injuries from last week. Odds are they are just bumps and bruises. But re-aggravating those injuries early could play a large part. Part of me thinks JM just wants the season to end now that his Heisman, SECC, and NC hopes are gone. If they have, he might be a little less inclined to dive head first for that first down. No need to risk his health for a meaningless game anyway, right? I'm not saying this is how he's going to go about it, hell, it could be the opposite, but I think it's worth a shot. If Vandy can get in his head by taking legal pounding shots, they just might get him out of his game. Vandy tries to keep it close by running clock and trying to create turnovers. But in the end, JF's ability to make plays on the fly and Franklin's uncanny ability to attempt unwise stupid fakes, keeps A&M from dropping two in a row.

    Texas A&M- 49
    Vandy- 41

    3. (2:30pm)- Bama vs Tennessee- Ah, the "Third Saturday in October" rivalry game. Except, it's not actually on the 3rd Saturday of October this year. Hmmm. Well, anyway, for those that don't know, this is a very big rivalry game for both sides. There is a lot of hate and respect from fans on both sides. UT generally has the 2nd most tradition in the entire SEC behind Bama. Which has generally led to a mutual respect. But ever since the Fulmer debacle happened, both sides have fanned a resounding hate for one another the likes of Southern football has seldom seen. A decade ago the National Guard literally almost had to be called in. And while we don't expect any real shots to ring out this weekend, we do expect some points.

    UT is coming off two great performances two weeks in a row. Taking UGA to overtime and beating a top ranked USCe team makes them look much different than the UT team that hardly beat Western Kentucky and South Alabama earlier in the year. UT will have to find offense where they can get it. They have been less than spectacular in passing but seemed to have turn a corner in rushing. At this point they average around 200 yards rushing a game behind the most experienced OL in the SEC. They limit sacks keeping a good pocket for their QB. But going up against a great Bama defense, they will need to throw some things at them Bama hasn't seen. I watch for a little more misdirection, counter trap plays to the short side led by a pulling guard, and trick plays to get large chunks of yardage. After looking at the stats, it's hard to see them being able to methodically drive it down the field consistently. Hit on a few big plays down the field, keep the SS out of the box, and force a few turnovers, and we'll see what happens in the 4th. UT just needs to keep it close till the 4th to have a chance. Butch Jones will need one more ace up his sleeve to pull this one out

    And while UT is looking to drag the game out and just get to the 4th, Bama will be looking to throw a few haymakers early. Bama's offense isn't all that complicated. They run the ball, make you bring another DB into the box to stop the run, then throw it over the top. All the while keeping the numbers balanced and hitting intermediate timing routes. I expect nothing different this weekend. What I do look for is more passes deep and early. UT has to stop the run and everyone knows it. OK, maybe not STOP it, but slow it down. They are giving up over 200 yards a game rushing 4 out of thee past 5 games. I'm not sure Bama's ever lost a game under Saban where they ran for 200. So look for them to try and bring pressure and not give AJ time to make as many check downs. Watch for more 40+ yard bombs. If UT can stop those from connecting thus getting Bama behind the down and distance, who knows? Maybe they can force a few punts. If they can't and AJ has a big day, Bama will start the two week prep course for the showdown in T-Town against LSU.

    Bama- 42
    UT- 17

    4. (6:00pm) LSU vs Furman- This game is just what you need if you are an LSU fan or player. After a tough loss last week, beating up on a bad Furman team is the way to go. Like a recently broken up with bro, time to hit the bar and take home the fat chick to get the confidence back up. Furman is LSU's fat chick. Just wear a damn condom LSU, wear a condom.

    LSU- AIDS
    Furman- Sore and less than satisfied

    5. (6:00pm) South Carolina vs Missouri- To me, this is by far the biggest SEC game of the week. The effects of this game will reverberate throughout not only the SEC West, but the East as well. Missouri has gone from a team with no respect, to a team favored to win the West. Win this game and they get through the thick of their schedule and will get a short break before having to finish the season against @Ole Miss and Texas A&M. Missouri has a long way to go to get to Atlanta, but a win today would go a long way in obtaining it. South Carolina looks to get back on track by beating a good Missouri team before getting into the last leg of their schedule that includes Missouri this week, Miss State next, BYE Week, then UF and Clemson. Losing 3 of those 4 would be disastrous and to be honest, just not expectable. Would a 7 win season make the natives restless in Columbus?

    USCe is coming off a disappointing loss to a UT team they feel they should have beat. They had the West crown in their cross hairs but as it stands now, that's looking like a long shot. Losing their starting QB will put even more pressure on their RB Mike Davis and a defense giving up on average 25 points a game. Game planning for this game is tricky. Do you drive down the tempo and limit the possessions Missouri gets? Or do you trust your offense to put up points then lean on your defense late in the 4th? Missouri averages about 40 points a game even with their backup QB, so USCe will have to choose one or the other.

    With South Carolina's QB out, they will be hoping to get a huge game from their running game and Mike Davis. Problem is, Missouri has one of the better rush defenses in the SEC giving up just over 100 yards rushing a game. I look for SOS to mix up the running and passing game by throwing intermediate passes and spreading the defense as thin as they can for Davis to find holes. USCe needs a big day from their backup QB and without one, I can't see them matching points with Missouri. Look for SOS to attempt least one fake punt or onside kick to try and steal a possession. If South Carolina can't run it well, I don't see them winning this game

    Missouri- 27
    USCe- 23

    6. (6:30pm) AU vs Florida Atlantic- After a huge win on the road last week Au looks to dismember a 2-5 FAU team. There's really not much to say as far as strategy as AU can generally just line up and beat them. They will and that will be that. The biggest question will be who plays QB more Marshall or Johnson? This guy is going to say 50/50.

    But after beating FAU, AU looks to be 7-1 going into an Arkansas game on the road. After that, it's UT on the road. If they can win all three of these it will make them 9-1 heading into the UGA game at home. AU's biggest obstacle these next three weeks is themselves. If they can play AU football and stay humble, it will make for a very good UGA rivalry game that's on the horizon. I look for AU to run it, and run it some more against a very bad FAU run defense.

    AU- 52
    FAU- 13

    7. (6:30pm) Ole Miss vs Idaho- Ole Miss is coming off their biggest win in, well, a long time. And most Southerners are finding out for the first time Idaho is an actual state. It sure is guys, I looked it up and everything. But anyway, Coach Freeze did a great job last week stopping the teams 3 game skid in pulling off an upset at home. Now they are at 4-3 with big wins over Texas and LSU in their back pocket. Their future games breakdown like this: Idaho, BYE WEEK, Arkansas, Troy, Missouri, and @Miss State. That is a very manageable schedule and there's a very good chance they will be favored in everyone of them except Missouri. Saying they do win the others they should, that puts them at 8-4 heading into a bowl game. Between Freeze winning 7 games last year, 8 games this year including a big upset over their rival, all the young players starting this year, and all the injuries he has had to endure this season, I'd say that would be reason to celebrate. 9 wins going into the off season would be yet another huge building block for this staff to continue to build on. But first, they have to get past Idaho.

    LOL, did you see me? I almost got through that last sentence with a straight face. Well done Weedline, well done. Anyway, of course they will beat Idaho. Idaho is 1-6 on the year and 2-17 since Paul Petrino took over two years ago. 2 and seventeen. They beat Temple this year, which asks the greater question: how freaking bad does Temple suck? Damn. But anyway, the Idaho defense is giving up 330 yards a game passing and 220 yards a game rushing. So what can we say? The game plan is pretty much do whatever they want. Idaho's offense is only averaging 16 points a game, so it's safe to say they can't move the ball either. Ole Miss wins big

    Ole Miss- 58
    Idaho- 13

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  • BamaOnLine

    Weedline

    ttt for hard work

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  • TheBigSpur

    pcgamecock2001

    Good stuff but South Carolina and zoo are in the east. Btw our back up qb is a better passer than shaw and has won several games for us. He beat Clemson last year and I don't think he has lost a game he has started.

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  • BamaOnLine

    Weedline

    pcgamecock2001 said... (original post)

    Good stuff but South Carolina and zoo are in the east. Btw our back up qb is a better passer than shaw and has won several games for us. He beat Clemson last year and I don't think he has lost a game he has started.

    You are correct sir, that was my mistake. And I'm honestly not very familiar with your backup at all so he could end up being even better, I'm not sure. But one things for sure, you guys have to top SEC game this weekend at the moment. I'm really looking forward to seeing it.

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  • Weedline said... (original post)

    5. (6:00pm) South Carolina vs Missouri- To me, this is by far the biggest SEC game of the week. The effects of this game will reverberate throughout not only the SEC West, but the East as well. Missouri has gone from a team with no respect, to a team favored to win the West. Win this game and they get through the thick of their schedule and will get a short break before having to finish the season against @Ole Miss and Texas A&M. Missouri has a long way to go to get to Atlanta, but a win today would go a long way in obtaining it. South Carolina looks to get back on track by beating a good Missouri team before getting into the last leg of their schedule that includes Missouri this week, Miss State next, BYE Week, then UF and Clemson. Losing 3 of those 4 would be disastrous and to be honest, just not expectable. Would a 7 win season make the natives restless in Columbus?

    USCe is coming off a disappointing loss to a UT team they feel they should have beat. They had the West crown in their cross hairs but as it stands now, that's looking like a long shot. Losing their starting QB will put even more pressure on their RB Mike Davis and a defense giving up on average 25 points a game. Game planning for this game is tricky. Do you drive down the tempo and limit the possessions Missouri gets? Or do you trust your offense to put up points then lean on your defense late in the 4th? Missouri averages about 40 points a game even with their backup QB, so USCe will have to choose one or the other.

    With South Carolina's QB out, they will be hoping to get a huge game from their running game and Mike Davis. Problem is, Missouri has one of the better rush defenses in the SEC giving up just over 100 yards rushing a game. I look for SOS to mix up the running and passing game by throwing intermediate passes and spreading the defense as thin as they can for Davis to find holes. USCe needs a big day from their backup QB and without one, I can't see them matching points with Missouri. Look for SOS to attempt least one fake punt or onside kick to try and steal a possession. If South Carolina can't run it well, I don't see them winning this game

    Missouri- 27 USCe- 23

    Just a few thoughts. I think you meant East instead of West in all of this paragraph. Also, it wouldn't shock me to see Spurrier get away from the run game instead of leaning more on it. Dylan(backup QB) is 2x better passer than Shaw, and 1/4th of the runner. It will virtually eliminate the read-option attack we like. Especially if we get down. I don't agree with this at all, but Spurrier has still not shown that he will stick with the run if we get down. It will be interesting to see, but I hope you are right and Davis gets 25+ carries.

    Everything points to Mizzou for the win. At home, no QB for us, coming off a loss, missing OL and safeties. All that being said, this is the type of game we win. We seem to play better as the underdog, and Dylan might be better on the road than Shaw. We already had our WTF game last week, and the DL looks like they are finally improving.

    SC - 38
    Mizzou - 34

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  • BamaOnLine

    Ichabod

    I have no respect for the Viles. That campus could catch on fire and I wouldn't piss on it to help put it out

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  • Weedline said... (original post)


    SC - 38 Mizzou - 34

    whistling

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    If you want the ultimate, you've got to be willing to pay the ultimate price. It's not tragic to die doing what you love.