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Watch the hate come: I think Michigan takes a step back in overall QB play.
Here it comes.............
YOUR have been banned from reading and posting on the Michigan Wolverine board.
btw, I love Jeremy Gallon's game. Kid's tough as nails. If he was 6'2, he'd be all over the NFL draft boards.
Michigan State does not and will not run the 3-4 defense.
I'm just bemoaning that UM can lose 4/5 of their OL and legitimately talk about improving up front, when MSU returns 4/5 of its OL and we're all nervous as heck at how they'll perform.
After you nancies stop screaming at me for what I just said, let me ask you a straight up question:
Do you think Michigan played better in defeat against South Carolina, and was it a better game, then what they did in victory against Va. Tech last year?
I don't think they've been bit in the ass like we were this year. We're very gun shy. I think they lose a step at QB, not as much of a threat as a runner, and not a very big improvement in passing. That will hurt more then we think.
I disagree, but I'm not slamming you. Why do you think that?
To put #s on it (because you know how I love #s):
UM QBs threw for a little under 2600 yards this year with 20 TDs and 19 INTs (4 were Bellomy's and I don't think he'll see another snap, so call it at 20 - 15 ratio). Denard rushed for approx. 1250 (1266) and Gardner had 100 (101). That's around 3950 yards of O from the QB spot . . . . maybe 3730 if you want to count Denard's games vs. tOSU and S. Car as RB yards (about 220 odd some yards (using round #s).
I don't have a problem thinking Garnder will throw for a fair amount; let's say he has a huge year and tosses for 3000. You still have at least 900 yards (200 from Denard as an RB, 700 as a QB)on the ground to make up, without the home-run hitter that Denard was (Gardner averages 2.1 YPC).
Run-blocking is going to have to improve by a lot to make up for that; no RBs averaged more than 4.6 YPC and no RB with more than 20 carries averaged more than 4.2 YPC.
That's just to break even with 2012's 383.08 yards/game overall. UM basically needs to get 1000 yards out of Toussaint (+500) and around 700 from Rawls (+450).
It could happen, but that speed that Denard brought isn't on the roster (as far as I can tell); going to take more carries and better run-blocking. I don't think Gardner throws 15 INTs next year though. Losing Rountree sucks, but like I said earlier, I love Gallon's game.
This post was edited by MalibuMan 18 months ago
It was pretty clear all year, that Barnum and Mealer were on the bench for most of their careers. They, simply put, aren't good. Omameh regressed quite a bit. Chris Bryant would have started if it weren't for his injury. I also believe Kyle Kalis would have started over Barnum as well, if not Hoke wanting to RS all OL. It will be slow going early in the year, with a probable loss against ND early in there because of their nasty DL. I think by the time B1G play starts the unit will have gelled and the OL will start picking up and some huge holes will be generated.
On the edge we will regress next year as we lose Lewan (or I think we will, his draft stock rose quite a bit with how he handled Clowney). But I think the interior of our OL will be improved.
That's a bit problematic (re: losing guys on the edge); Gardner was sacked 11 times in 5 starts, and if his protection gets worse . . .
It's clear that Gardner is not a run-first QB, which is a good thing. At the same time, it's going to be hard to get those rushing yards back when the QB isn't quite the same threat to run; Toussaint definitely benefited from the threat of Robinson to take the ball and hit the home run. A power-run game is going to negate some of the QB's effectiveness as a runner, though Gardner's size should help a bit standing up to pressure.
Your D should be fine, though I think the pass D (like most Big 10 pass D's) was more a product of horrific Big 10 passing O's than an elite unit. Guess it won't matter since there are pretty much no good throwing QBs in the conference next year. Kind of curious about the DL too; LBs should be good.
We will sorely miss Denard in the passing game. I think the only run yards Gardner gets will be off of scrambles. He will probably have something like 500 Yards rushing on the season. Rawls, if he wants PT will be at FB. He's a Kelvin Grady reincarnate, big bruising RB that can't push a pile or run someone ever. Hayes jumped him on the depth chart for the Outback Bowl. Toussaint is a very good RB when he has obvious holes to run through. As evidence in the 2010-11 season. We had pretty good run blocking then, but piss poor this year and it showed.
Next year I can honestly see DeVeon Smith or Derrick Green (pending his commitment) taking over the RB spot. Both fit the mold of exactly what Hoke and Borges want in a RB. Toussaint seemed to have fallen under Michael Shaw bounce bounce bounce syndrome, where he would try and make a cut, rather than just hit upfield. If he remedies that, and recovers well from his injury he will have the #1 spot.
If the interior OL improves as I think it could, we'll have 1,000 yards out of the RBs. If it doesn't improve, going to be a very long year for us on offense. No team should respect our run game next year.
DL is almost set for next year, with only the SDE position being the only one with an empty spot.
WDE - Brennen Beyer/Mario Ojemudia (he really played well in the Outback Bowl)
DT - Quinton Washington
NT - Ondre Pipkens
SDE - Jibreel Black/Chris Wormley/Tom Strobel/Matt Godin
There will be an interesting battle for that SDE spot. Any of those four could start for us. Based off of this years spring, I predict Chris Wormley. We were hearing good things before his ACL injury.
But he's not 6'2" and therein lies the problem. Dileo and Gallon are great in the slot. So was Roundtree. But they are not wideouts. None of them are. We are hearing very good things about Darboh and Chesson. If even one of them emerges as a solid deep threat next year it will be a major improvement. If both Darboh and Chesson step up, it will be like a dream. We will have Funchess and Williams at TE and Gallon/Dileo in the slot and for 4 WR sets. But we have to wait and see. And we will still be very thin at WR until at least 2014. One injury and it's back to square one.
This post was edited by MrWoodson 18 months ago
FWIW, UM rushed for over 2300 yards last year. If you get 1000 yards from the RBs total, you need 1300 yards rushing for Gardner . . . . or if he runs for 500 (remember, he averaged 2.1 YPC in 5 starts) he'd need to throw for a total of 3400 yards (2600 = last year's passing total + the extra 800 yards), which I think would be close to the single season UM passing record.
Again, that's just to hit last year's 383 yards/game. If you want to hit 400 YPG on O, you need 5200 total yards of O for a 13 game season (assuming bowl game). 425 yards/game = 5525 yards of O . . . and that ranks you 47th nationally.
To be a top 25 O, you'd need to hit around 462 yards/game, or 6,006 total yards of O.
Note: I am fully aware that MSU is going to struggle to hit 300 YPG on O
Where's Frank Clark?
It really all depends on who steps in, Erik Magnuson, Blake Bars, Bren Braden, Michael Schofield. Pending Lewan leaves. If Lewan stays, our OL will be much improved next year. C will be a push, as Jack Miller didn't take the job from Mealer all year. There's also Patrick Kugler, but I believe he RS's. Chris Bryant will most likely step in at RG with Kyle Kalis taking the LG spot. Going to be a big nasty OL next year regardless of who plays.
Don't worry, UM has had 1 bad rash of injuries that I can recall in the past 4-5 seasons; the 2010 DB apocalypse
I haven't seen much of him all year. I think he gets passed up on the Depth Chart. He didn't play that well this year. He was WDE and I think both Beyer and Ojemudia outplayed him, all year long.
Offense is going to struggle next year. If people think we won't they're lying to themselves. Unproven RBs and OL, lack of talent at WR outside of Dileo and Gallon. It all comes down to one of Toussaint, DeVeon Smith, and Green (pending a commit), if we have a good offense next year. Also Darboh and Chesson both need to step up and fill in those empty WR spots fast. It's going to be rough with out Denard. But I think Devin gets 500-600 off of scrambles and a few designed runs he will get, 1,000 Yard from one RB (I think it will be DeVeon Smith+Toussaint for that) and 300-400 (Green, Hayes, Johnson) from the rest.
The staff won't like it, but I think it's RB by committee next year. Don't really have a choice, considering the talent we got there. Or lack there of. But remember Toussaint did have a 1,000 yard season. He can do it again if interior RB improves.
This post has been edited 3 times, most recently by Hoffelcopter 18 months ago
Just ask his probation officer.
Probably in someone's dorm
Yes, but look at the sharp increase in passing production we had when Gardner took over for three games. We will be more balanced next year. It's not unreasonable to expect us to have two or three RBs with 1,500+ yards rushing along with an extra 1,000+ yards passing over what we had this year. But we will have to wait and see. It would be like me asking you where you are going to get your production next year. It's pure speculation at this point. Do you know yet even if Bell and Sims will be back?
Exactly this is all speculation at this point. We got 8 months before we get to find out. I miss football season already.
FWIW, there were 11 rushers with 1500 yards this year, none for the same team. Getting 3K yards from 2 RBs alone is almost unheard of; Wisky did it with Ball, Clay and White back in 2010, IIRC, and they had between 900 and 1100 each.
Nevada hit 3000 yards rushing with 2 guys, but 1 was the QB.
Right now I don't think Bell or Sims are coming back. As I said, MSU will struggle to hit 300 YPG of total O.
No, no, no. I mean 1,500+ rushing yards total from 2-3 RBs. And probably another 300-400 from Gardner. Go back and look at OSU's numbers from the TP years. My expectation is we will look something like that over the next two seasons. But why are you so fixated on this? It's Jan 2. We haven't even made it through NFL announcements or Spring ball yet and you want a precise prediction of rushing and passing yards by player for 2013? The rushing yards will shift mostly to the RBs and the passing yards will increase. Beyond that, I can't give you anything more on Jan 2.
Having fun with #s, that's all.
1500 yards rushing from 2-3 RBs means you need about 800 yards from Gardner to stay on pace with what your run-game did this year.
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