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think MSU's OL is better
RB's are the same too (though if you include Denard, UM's is better).
I don't see that much of a drop in terms of skill level with Maxwell, though the new WRs are an issue
Really? He won the ND game by himself? Roundtree caught a jump ball TD for the win. Gallon had a TD catch and a huge catch on the final drive. Smith had a nice screen pass TD. I think Hemingway got plenty of help.
If Hemingway is good at it then yes it's skill. According to you he is so yep it's skill.
Think he's just using that as an example that with some teams that have national fanbases, they might inflate the line a point or two if it doesn't cross a key # (3, 7, 10, etc) because they'll know they will get money on Team X regardless if the line is 33 or 34.5
It's not a bad throw when it's one on one coverage. Hemmingway vs a corner 1 on 1 or a safety as with the case against VT on that second touchdown or his first against ND... I would throw it up and allow him to make a play every single time, that is what they teach you to do. The throws that I would consider "popups" from Denard are the ones when he chucks into double coverage when nobody is even open, he has to cut down on those throws this season. Either take off and run something for whatever reason he is reluclant to do or just throw it away. This is basic football 101.
Not when they're both caught brother
YOUR have been banned from reading and posting on the Michigan Wolverine board.
The Hail Mary and OT missed FG. MSU could of easily been 9 and 5. See it goes both ways.
The D itself wins 8 games.. so even if Maxwell is awful, 8-4 seems to be the floor
Now, UM on the other hand, could be 7-5 and would anyone really be surprised? Bama, @ND night, @Neb night, @OSU SB for Bucks, vs MSU
Sure, it's not likely, but UM being 7-5 is far more likely than MSU (would would, assume have to lose all 5 of: Boise, ND, @UM, @Wisky, Neb)
Come on. You know that is not what I am arguing here. The guy is trying to say a hail mary is going to be caught just as much as a jump ball in one on one coverage. You know that isn't true.
That's 2 games... what about the other 9 they won.
They were one of 3 teams in the country to beat 10 teams that played in bowl games. The other two were Oklahoma ST and LSU. Anybody can twist the stats to fit their respective argument. Like I said before at the end of the day you are what your record says you are.
Just address this point (there are many in the line setting conversation)....a half a point is pretty insignificant. UM is favored by 6 over MSU, so you are saying the REAL odds are UM by 5.5? I find that to be insignificant. The line is the real odds.
No, it's not just a random example. He was saying that a virtually meaningless move in the line might happen if it balances the money or serves another purpose. He specifically did not use an example of moving a line from -3 to -6 just to keep clientele happy for a reason. Because that's not how Vegas bookmakers operate.
1000% never said anything close to that..
Your guys' OL was terrible last year and we return everyone except for Molk.
Stealing Sparty's recruits and owning them on the field since 1898
What? You are acting like the Michigan jump balls are the same thing as a hail mary.
And Hyuge, though that isn't much of a loss, imo.
Ah, the whole Bowl games SOS.. lovely.. Brava for beating Western Michigan, San Diego State, Purdue and Illinois..
And I think you mean played 10 teams (9 if you don't include the bowl game, where of course, you'd like a team in a bowl) in bowls.. EMU/Minny were W's but didn't go to bowls..
And of those 9 bowl opponents, UM beat 7 of them (MSU, Iowa losses) and of those 7, only 2 won their bowl.. Illinois over 6-7 UCLA and Purdue over WMU (2 UM opponents)..
So once again, Brava for taking out WMU, SDSU, Purdue and Illiniois..
I never claimed the books move the line 4+ pts or anything drastic.. and my comments were towards mostly larger spread, OOC games, ie UM favored by 21.5 or 22.5 isn't a big deal as books know they will get money on UM regardless..
It wasn't meant to, nor do I think the books inflate that often on conference games, esp conference games involving ranked opponents
Why would any Vegas bookmaker move a line from one key number to another based on inflation? That's a great way to go out of business..
My point was, if the oddsmakers know they are going to get heavy action on UM regardless say vs. Troy or Tulane or some piss team- there's no disadvantage to them to move the line 1-2 pts if it doesn't cross a key number. If their true lines say UM should be -33 and then open it at -34.5, that's not going to deter any UM bettors from still betting UM
Ouch, dude you're way more educated then me, but these guys dint care who is betting they just want a 50/50 split of bets. The line floats to get even money bet on both sides, not because they'll say " hey let's go after MSU fan.". First money in is usually a huge national team. That's why they start higher than they should. Then they need to lower it fo get the other side to jump in and balance. Trust a guy who went cold turkey the day he got married
Im just using the same dumb argument you made to try and disparage Michigan's season last year. Like I said anybody can twists stats to win an argument. Fact is Michigan won 8 of the 11 games by double digits. Were they fortune against VT and Notre Dame? No doubt about it, but at the end of the day everything ended up evening out. They won 2 games they were fortunate to win and they ended up losing 2 games during the course of the season. At the end of the day you are what your record says you are.
This post was edited by TheDudeAbides21 2 years ago
Then is a jump ball in a one on one more likely to be intercepted?
Michigan played 10 bowl teams not including the bowl game and won 8.
More likely than what?
1- That horrible OL still rushed for over 200 yards vs UM
2- that horrible OL averaged 170rush yards its final 4 B1G games (including games @Iowa, Wisky in B1G Title game)
3- That horrible OL was 2nd in the B1G is sacks allowed per game (1.2) behind only PSU
4- I believe UM is replacing 2 OL, not just Molk, as well as moving a T over to a G or the other way around
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