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Crazy that its so close. I'm nervous energetic about it. I'm not one of the 100 million folks who's wound themselves up to the point where I think my candidate is great but if the other guy wins its the end of life as we know it. I'm actually worried about how many folks do believe that. Anyways....,
I don't want to hear who you WANT to win, who do you think WILL win Tuesday night? I know for many that's difficult to separate band for many the answer is the same.
I really believe in my heart of hearts there are enough indicators, given where we were in '08, that say Barack is doing well enough to get a 2nd term. Just don't think Romney did enough. Your thoughts?
This post was edited by fsufsu 20 months ago
Black Jesus and Aliens.
On that note, I also don't think this Republican woman from Nevada will be the only person caught attempting to perpetrate voter fraud.
Roxanne Rubin, a registered Republican from Henderson, Nev., was arrested Friday on a felony charge of attempting to vote twice in the same election. FBI agents took Rubin into custody as she arrived for work at the Riviera hotel-casino, according to the Associated Press.
Posts like these suck: why single out republicans? Stick to Q in th op
How am I singling out Republicans? I didn't say that I thought it would only be Republicans attempting to perpetrate voter fraud.
Romney because he will win Ohio. Just my opinion.
Rubio. Obama wins Tuesday, making Rubio the "next" president.
Obama might be able to win without Ohio (he'd have to win all of the other states he's currently ahead in), but I've seen he's up a little over 2 points there, so he'll most likely win Ohio. Romney can't win without Ohio.
Jeff Dawsy would make a great POTUS.
Pretty sure it'll be Obama. On a slightly different note, I voted last week for the first time.
Huddles are for rookies.
The Vegas line is Obama -350.
he wouldn't let his players pose in the Playboy All-American magazine edition, he said, "Cause you can't play football with an erection."
Romney in a landslide
All depends on turnout, if Democrats turnout like they did in 08 or close to it then Obama will win, if they don't then Romney could win a lot of states that people think he's losing in right now and will win.
Romney will win the popular vote, but will fall short if 270 electoral votes. So Obama will win.
I don't usually post in here, but the best person to answer this question is Nate Silver, a sabermetrics (think Moneyball) statistician turned political polling analyst. He gives Obama an 85.1% chance of reelection and the ~15% chance of a Romeny win is all due to a polling bias where every poll is biased toward Obama (which he explains is highly unlikely and history argues against this anomaly).
It's worth reading his Nov. 2 and Nov.3 posts to get a pulse of the election forcast.
Our model puts President Obama's chances of winning Pennsylvania at more than 95 percent, but Mitt Romney's alternate paths to an Electoral College victory aren't looking a lot stronger, especially given the Democrats' early voting advantage.
This post was edited by Goldengator 20 months ago
Silver got one election right, the Redskins have a better history of picking winners than he does. That said, I think Obama wins.
Silver started working as a political analyst in '07. He was right in '08, right in '10 and there is no reason to think he's not right now.
Your argument is false on the assumption he's been picking losers, when, in fact, since he's been a political analyst he's been right, more often than most other analysts.
So if you want to blindly believe he is wrong, because you want Obama voted out of office go for it, but his track record is impeccable and I wouldn't bet against him.
what people dont realize is most polls silver is using in his analysis have a higher dem turnout than 08. If you think the Dems, who had record turnout, will INCREASE their turnout then you just dont get it. I know tons of republicans/independents that refused to put Palin even close to the presidency.
The race is VERY close and will be within 1-2% in OH and PA. It could go either way because turnout will be much different than these polls suggest
One of the polls is silver's model has D+9 turnout
08 was D+5. That would mean ever Dem who voted in 08 votes again, they lose no voters, and turn 4 out of every 100 voters to the Dem cause.
Highly, highly unlikely. If Philly got hit hard by Sandy like people expected, maybe because people wouldn't be around to vote. But Philly didn't even lose power and some of the more rural areas are still without power.
This post was edited by shavisimo2 20 months ago
Romney has one path to victory. Obama has 3 or 4.
Betting Romney is like betting a 5 team parlay where betting Obama is like taking the money line on the favorite. Obama wins, just not by much. We get Bloomberg in 2016.
I just can't see it happening. At least you like Al Golden with his PA ties.
Some think it is a possibility because PA hasnt been slammed with the ads that OH and other battlegroud states have. In the end, it will be close but Obama is too strong there to lose.
Romney needs OH. The auto bailout comments will end up costing him the presidency.
I don't know what the ads are like in OH, but I do know there has been a nice amount of slam advertising going on here in PA.
What do you mean we "get" Bloomberg. He would never win the presidency, not a chance in hell.
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