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Election Results thread

  • VTSmitty said...

    Thoughts and prayers are with you. Hang in there.

    Ha, she's not hosting.

    signature image

    Time and change will surely (truly) show How firm thy friendship ... OHIO!

    callen05

  • callen05 said...

    Ha, she's not hosting.

    Whew! Prayers answered.

    VTSmitty

  • callen05 said...

    Ha, she's not hosting.

    So you will be playing video games then?

    Aussie

  • callen05 said...

    Ha, she's not hosting.

    So you will be playing video games then?

    Aussie

  • callen05 said...

    Take it or leave it, Nate Silver gives Obama a 90% chance of winning.

    I have tickets for a talk he's giving on Friday, he could hear a lot of crickets if he's wrong.

    To be fair, Nate Silver's job is to analyze what polls are saying based on how polls have behaved historically. Lots of polls would have to be very wrong for Romney to win today, and there's really no historical precedent for that. Course that doesn't mean it can't happen, it's just not likely.

    Nov. 5: Late Poll Gains for Obama Leave Romney With Longer Odds - NYTimes.com

    President Obama appears to have gained ground in the closing days of the race: among 12 national polls published on Monday, he led Mitt Romney by an average of 1.6 percentage points.

    fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com

    Trevor Barnes

  • callen05 said...

    Take it or leave it, Nate Silver gives Obama a 90% chance of winning.

    I have tickets for a talk he's giving on Friday, he could hear a lot of crickets if he's wrong.

    Nate Silver is an example of what we need out of statisticians and scientists these days - he's made his model, he's tested it extensively, and he stands by it. He's staked his reputation on the success of his model, and so far, it's passed every test with flying colors.

    I appreciate this type of confidence and determination in conjunction with politics - it's a nice break from the flip-flopping and waffling.

    signature image signature image signature image

    CMXI ●

  • Aussie said...

    So you will be playing video games then?

    How'd you guess?

    signature image

    Time and change will surely (truly) show How firm thy friendship ... OHIO!

    callen05

  • Seeing Facebook posts in Ohio of people admitting/bragging about voting multiple times.

    purple_rein

  • purple_rein said...

    Seeing Facebook posts in Ohio of people admitting/bragging about voting multiple times.

    Hi, lets post on the internet how we've committed a federal crime.

    signature image

    Time and change will surely (truly) show How firm thy friendship ... OHIO!

    callen05

  • callen05 said...

    How'd you guess?

    Just lucky.

    Aussie

  • CMXI said...

    Nate Silver is an example of what we need out of statisticians and scientists these days - he's made his model, he's tested it extensively, and he stands by it. He's staked his reputation on the success of his model, and so far, it's passed every test with flying colors.

    I appreciate this type of confidence and determination in conjunction with politics - it's a nice break from the flip-flopping and waffling.

    +1

    Trevor Barnes

  • CMXI said...

    Nate Silver is an example of what we need out of statisticians and scientists these days - he's made his model, he's tested it extensively, and he stands by it. He's staked his reputation on the success of his model, and so far, it's passed every test with flying colors.

    I appreciate this type of confidence and determination in conjunction with politics - it's a nice break from the flip-flopping and waffling.

    Yup, a single wrong prediction could break his career.

    signature image

    Time and change will surely (truly) show How firm thy friendship ... OHIO!

    callen05

  • callen05 said...

    Yup, a single wrong prediction could break his career.

    This is what is about to happen.

    signature image signature image

    Status

  • callen05 said...

    Yup, a single wrong prediction could break his career.

    I disagree completely. Again, his job is to analyze the polls. If the polls are wrong based on how they have performed historically, that's not on him. If anything, he could write articles for months analyzing why the polls were wrong, and how they need to adjust in the future, etc.

    Trevor Barnes

  • Status said...

    This is what is about to happen.

    Call me crazy, but I'll take the established statistician, hard mathematics and his model that predicted 99% of the 2008 election accurately over your opinion.

    signature image signature image signature image

    CMXI ●

  • Trevor Barnes said...

    I disagree completely. Again, his job is to analyze the polls. If the polls are wrong based on how they have performed historically, that's not on him. If anything, he could write articles for months analyzing why the polls were wrong, and how they need to adjust in the future, etc.

    He's praised for his accuracy and with a swing and a miss in such a high profile prediction, people would start to question his methods. It's a fickle world.

    signature image

    Time and change will surely (truly) show How firm thy friendship ... OHIO!

    callen05

  • CMXI said...

    Call me crazy, but I'll take the established statistician, hard mathematics and his model that predicted 99% of the 2008 election accurately over your opinion.

    lol

    signature image

    Time and change will surely (truly) show How firm thy friendship ... OHIO!

    callen05

  • CMXI said...

    Call me crazy, but I'll take the established statistician, hard mathematics and his model that predicted 99% of the 2008 election accurately over your opinion.


    It's not really an opinion. His equations are predicting the same Obama turnout in 2012 as 2008. Anyone with half a brain knows this will not happen. Just like anyone with half a brain could have predicted an Obama victory in 2008.

    signature image signature image

    Status

  • callen05 said...

    He's praised for his accuracy and with a swing and a miss in such a high profile prediction, people would start to question his methods. It's a fickle world.

    Think of Nate Silver as the AP poll of politics. All he does is aggregate all of the different polls and analyze them based on how they've performed in the past. Does the AP poll ALWAYS predict who wins the national championship every season? No, but it usually does a decent job. Even if #1 lost in the championship game the year before, people are still pretty interested in who is ranked #1 the following season.

    Trevor Barnes

  • Rush is saying Romney. I trust Rush over shady statistics guy with fuzzy math.

    VTSmitty

  • Status said...

    It's not really an opinion. His equations are predicting the same Obama turnout in 2012 as 2008. Anyone with half a brain knows this will not happen. Just like anyone with half a brain could have predicted an Obama victory in 2008.

    Unless you have some sort of statistics or evidence to back up what you just said, it's an opinion, and nothing more.

    o·pin·ion /əˈpinyən/
    Noun:
    A view or judgment formed about something, not necessarily based on fact or knowledge.

    signature image signature image signature image

    CMXI ●

  • Status said...

    It's not really an opinion. His equations are predicting the same Obama turnout in 2012 as 2008.

    Where are you reading that? I read his posts almost daily and I don't think I've seen anything along those lines.

    Trevor Barnes

  • Status said...

    It's not really an opinion. His equations are predicting the same Obama turnout in 2012 as 2008. Anyone with half a brain knows this will not happen. Just like anyone with half a brain could have predicted an Obama victory in 2008.

    He's staking his career and reputation on it, what do you do for a living?

    signature image

    Time and change will surely (truly) show How firm thy friendship ... OHIO!

    callen05

  • Trevor Barnes said...

    Think of Nate Silver as the AP poll of politics. All he does is aggregate all of the different polls and analyze them based on how they've performed in the past. Does the AP poll ALWAYS predict who wins the national championship every season? No, but it usually does a decent job. Even if #1 lost in the championship game the year before, people are still pretty interested in who is ranked #1 the following season.

    Yeah, I know. But there are a lot more variables involved than it appears on the surface.

    Fun fact, he used to be a baseball statistician.

    signature image

    Time and change will surely (truly) show How firm thy friendship ... OHIO!

    callen05

  • VTSmitty said...

    Rush is saying Romney. I trust Rush over shady statistics guy with fuzzy math.

    The best thing that ever happened for Rush's career was Clinton getting reelected. Same goes for Obama getting reelected.

    Limbaugh Predicts McCain Victory

    "Talk radio giant Rush Limbaugh says that Sen. John McCain will score a stunning upset over Sen. Barack Obama and win the presidency on Nov. 4.

    In an interview with London Telegraph correspondent Nigel Farndale published Friday, Limbaugh said the mainstream media has been pushing Obama’s candidacy because “They want to be able to say they did it if Obama wins.”

    To which Farndale countered, “Well, he is going to win, isn’t he?”

    Limbaugh’s response: “No, I don’t see it Nigel. I think [Obama has] been dead in the water since the primaries. He is going to need to be up 10 to 12 points to win by 3 or 4.”

    The latest “poll of polls” on RealClearPolitics.com showed Obama leading by 6.4 percent.

    “Don’t forget,” Limbaugh said according to Farndale, “that Hillary winning was a foregone conclusion, too. If the polls had been right it would have been Giuliani versus Hillary. That’s why polls a year out are worthless.”

    © 2012 Newsmax. All rights reserved.

    Trevor Barnes

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