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jadennis said...
Since things are relatively slow in the off-season, i thought I'd share some numbers that I wrote up a couple years ago (updated today).
These are the top 5-year stretches by the top 6 SEC programs. I found the best 5-year stretch and then found the rest that didn't overlap. I did the same thing for great 10 year stretches and great 20 year stretches as well. I'll post some other time.
There are notes at the end, and since I was posting this on an Auburn board, AuburnUndercover, the notes pertain primarily to Auburn, so no need to flame, I'm giving the disclaimer up front.
Enjoy...or don't.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
And here are some great 5 year periods:
Alabama 1930-1934 - 44-4-1 .908% 1971-1975 - 56-6-0 .900% 1962-1966 - 49-5-1 .900% 1977-1981 - 53-6-1 .892% 1936-1940 - 36-7-3 .815%
Auburn 1910-1914 - 34-4-3 .866% 1954-1958 - 42-8-2 .826% 1986-1990 - 47-10-3 . 808% 1993-1997 - 46-12-1 .788% 2003-2007 - 50-14-0 .781%
Florida 1993-1998 - 65-10-1 .862% 2005-2009 - 57-10-0 .851% 1981-1985 - 42-13-3 .750% 1921-1925 - 33-10-6 .735% 1999-2003 - 45-19-0 .703%
Georgia 1980-1984 - 50-8-2 .850% 1942-1946 - 44-10-0 .815% 2002-2006 - 53-13-0 .803% 1997-2001 - 43-17-0 .716% 1929-1933 - 31-15-3 .663%
LSU 2003-2007 - 56-10-0 .848% 1958-1962 - 44-8-2 .833% 1933-1937 - 41-7-6 .815 1969-1973 - 45-12-1 .784% 1905-1909 - 28-7-2 .784%
Tennessee 1928-1932 - 45-1-4 .940% 1938-1942 - 48-5-1 .898% 1995-1999 - 54-8-0 .871% 1968-1972 - 48-9-1 .836% 1989-1993 - 48-11-2 .803%
NOTES:
Notice the records from the 2000's. Auburn, LSU, Georgia, and Florida all had stretches of .780% or higher that overlapped at least 3 of the 5 years. In fact, the Auburn and LSU runs in the 2000's were exactly the same, 2003-2007. Considering that Auburn played LSU and Georgia every one of those 5 years (while they were in great 5-year runs of thier own) and still had a 50-14 record is impressive.
It's also interesting to see that Alabama has two 5 year stretches taking up basically the entire 1970's. But note that Auburn, Georgia, and Florida didn't have any strong runs during the 1970's, and LSU and Tennessee only had periods that slightly bled into the beginning of that decade. The same is true of the Alabama run from 1962 to 1966. It doesn't overlap with any run by any other team. In other words, they didn't exactly face many other juggernauts during those runs. They were extremely up, but none of the other top programs were in the midst of a particularly strong run. That's opposite of the 2000's, in which FOUR teams had overlapping stretches of very strong play.
To be fair, the same comparison can be made of Auburn's 1986 to 1990 run. It doesn't overlap with any other 5-year stretch of the other programs either. This isn't to say other programs weren't strong, but they weren't having an all-time five year run at the same time Auburn was having one of theirs. One important note in that stretch however, is that this simple list doesn't show that Auburn did play Florida State, Texas, and USC a combined 6 times out of conference during that span, but still went 47-10-3.
Because of the insanely strong competition in the SEC in the 2000's, I've always been proud of those 2003-2006 Auburn teams. Those teams had a winning % of .782 and played 12 games against Florida, Georgia, and LSU, who were all also in the midst of some of the best 5 year stretches in their program's histories. In fact, Auburn handed those teams 6 losses in those 12 head-to-head games. Those three teams only lost 27 times in their other 187 games that were not against Auburn. In other words, those teams were .500 against Auburn, .856 against everyone else. Say what you want about Tuberville, but his teams competed very well against top competition.
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Lesticals said...
Thank you for posting but next time can you add SEC Championship wins and appearances along with MNC's? It would really show the good 5 year stretches (Alabama would have some good looking runs)
This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by FortWorthTide on 3/3/2011 at 6:12 PM
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FortWorthTide said...
The season has 13 games now with bowl games, so it would be 22-4 if we go on your assumption of losing 4. There would be a possibility for 2 additional games if Alabama makes the conference championship in both years.
That's why its exciting. Even if we lost 2 games each of the next two seasons (which I doubt) that would be one of the best runs of the last couple decades. I'm not normally a fan of picking certain windows for statistics (modern era, last 20 years, etc) but because of the addition of conference championship games and more bowl games since the early 90s, lets make an exception and use 1990 on as a reference. Looking at the records in those years (which, again, had more games played so more opportunities for wins/losses than any other era) 22-4 would put Alabama at 58-9 (.866). That would rival or top the 4 elite streaks during that time:
2005-2009 - 57-10-0 .851% for Florida 2003-2007 - 56-10-0 .848% for LSU 1995-1999 - 54-8-0 .871% for Tennessee. Florida also had this run: 1993-1998 - 65-10-1 .862% but the number of games played is significantly higher than those in all other 1990-2011 streaks. I don't know if that's an error or just a scheduling fluke, but if its legit its very impressive.
Regardless, Alabama would be in solid company. When you take into account the possibility that Alabama might lose less than 4 games in the next two years, its even better. If you give Alabama 2 loses instead of 4 and 1 more win for a conference championship win, that pushes the record to 25-2 for the next two years for a total of 61-7 (.897). I think you could reasonable assume Alabama could accomplish this. They could have an undefeated NC season and a 11-2 season. Or they could have a 13-1 SEC championship season with a loss in the NC game or the regular season, with the other season being a 12-1 season with no conference championship game appearance (say they lost to an undefeated LSU). There would be other scenarios with varying numbers of SEC championship appearances, but you get the point. This run Alabama is on is already very impressive, and could be the best of the conference championship game/expanded bowl schedule era. Other than 1 Alabama streak and 1 Tennessee streak in the 1930s, it would be the best win percentage over 5 years other than two runs by Paul Bryant.
This post was edited by jadennis on 3/4/2011 at 10:19 AM
jadennis
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jadennis
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jadennis said...
That Florida game total looked odd because it was accidentally a 6 year period (93 to 98 is 6 seasons).
It should have read....
1993-1997 - 55-8-1 .867%, which is even more impressive.
All your possibilities for the next two years are legit. If Alabama can hold on, it could end up being a all-time 5 year run. But, don't forget.....it's very, very hard to do. This year you spent time as the #1 team in the country, and rightly so. But by years end, you had somehow lost 3 games. It's very, very hard to do it year after year these days in the SEC.
Last year, in 2010, you had a very good team, but still managed to lose 3 games. You were likely much better than 10-3 indicated.
In 2009, you had a special team, and went 14-0. Everything worked out just right (blocked kick against Tennessee, final TD drive @ Auburn, etc), but mostly, it was a very, very good football team, bottom line.
In 2008, that team was good, but probably not nearly as good as the 12-0 regular season implied. That year you had the luxury of facing major rivals in the middle of melt-down seasons. 5-7 Tennessee, 5-7 Auburn, 5 loss LSU, 5-7 Arkansas, and 4-8 Mississippi St. The rest of the SEC West was a combined 31-31 that year (compared to 48-17 this year).
The point is, it's hard to come across years like your 2008 and 2009. One year that had unusually down competition, and one year that is a very special team. Just based on how tough the league is right now, I wouldn't be surprised to see Alabama have 4 losses in the next two years.....maybe 1 loss in one year and 3 losses in another?
Regardless, it's likely to be a very, very good 5-year run, especially considering the state of the SEC right now. Like I mentioned in my original post, some of those other 5-year runs by Bryant's teams were impressive, but weren't done against many other elite SEC teams. This current run is in the midst of an SEC domination. Several programs have been at or near their all-time best during these 5 years, which makes it especially impressive.
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Great 5-year runs in history by the top SEC programs