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Helwagen: Early Top 25 For 2013

  • http://247sports.com/Article/Who-are-teams-to-watch-in-chase-for-2013-college-football-title-113103

    We look at some of the key contenders for college football in 2013. Plus, we examine coaching changes, Heisman hopefuls, games to watch, BCS projections and more.

    SteveHelwagen

  • This was a lot of fun to go in and research exactly what everybody is losing and what everybody has coming back.

    As always, there are a ton of facts and figures in something like this. If I missed a name or mistyped a number, please point it out or PM me.

    Also, please share your top 10 or top 25 and your own BCS projections on how you see it.

    SteveHelwagen

  • Also, I gave you a possible top 50.

    Who are we missing from outside that group? Arkansas, Auburn aren't going to be down forever. One of them could pop off 8 wins this year if everything fell right.

    San Jose State, Kent State, Arkansas State and Louisiana Tech all had great years and could contend in their leagues again this year.

    SteveHelwagen

  • Agree with the top 5 in general. Though I've got this feeling that people are overrating aTm a little much simply because of Manziel.

    So is Penn State ineligible for these rankings or do you not think they're a top 50 team?

    signature image

    psubills62

  • great write up, thanks Steve

    UNTbuckeye85

  • Let me look at penn state and report back

    SteveHelwagen

  • Steve, great write up. I would point out that it's misleading to claim that Alabama is bringing back 8 defensive starters. Even if CJ Mosley were considered a starter (which, although technically debatable, I have no problem with), then there are still clearly 4 starters leaving the roster:
    Jessie Williams, Damian Square, Robert Lester, Dee Millner. Even if Nico were not considered a starter, who are you considering the 8 starters returning? If you include the nickel back or something like that, I think you should note that you're including 12-13 'starters' for each team. Just a thought. Thanks.

    This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by jrogers2 on 1/24/2013 at 5:29 PM

    jrogers2

  • Steve you should probably look at the players returning for teams alot closer.

    Right off the bat. Ace Sanders is not returning for USCe

    UF has 13 guys returning on Defense that have, had, or did start on D with 2 more with starting number of reps. Not 4 sir, 4 are returning in the secondary.

    gatornate10

  • gatornate10 said...

    Steve you should probably look at the players returning for teams alot closer.

    Right off the bat. Ace Sanders is not returning for USCe

    UF has 13 guys returning on Defense that have, had, or did start on D with 2 more with starting number of reps. Not 4 sir, 4 are returning in the secondary.

    And look at who they are losing and how many they are losing.

    I mean that does have an impact

    Jeff4SC

  • Nice work Steve and for the most part you're right but I might have givin braska more love with Martinez being a sr. Loved how you think ttun is going to struggle.

    davebucknut

  • Jeff4SC said...

    And look at who they are losing and how many they are losing.

    I mean that does have an impact

    Sure it does, but Reef, elam, Bostic, McCray, and Evans are the only real losses.
    Morrison replaced Jelani for the 2nd half of the season.
    Evans will be easy to replace with a secondary one of the 5 starters at corner.

    So really, replacing Reef, Elam and Bostic are the major concern. Morrison will prob slide over
    into a Bostics spot...done, Taylor who has started and played as much as anyone will replace Jelani's/Morrison. McCray's spot will be filled with the starter before McCray, Ronald Powell, so thats the LBs
    Roberson a 2 year starter can replace Evans an prob improve the position, as well as Poole. Corner is full Pirifoy, Watkins, Riggs, Brown, and VH III everyone will agree will play right away. Add Ramsey when he joins.

    So we are down to replacing Reef and Elam. Easley will slide down and replace floyd with Orr and Jacobs still there and Fowler and Bullard will remain as DEs. in 3-4 Fowler can slide down or play Buck.

    Elam is now about the only position of concern, Marcus Maye is capable along with others but replacing 1 key positions is alot different then 7 as the author initially wrote.

    Also that is replacing all "starters" with "starters" with the exception of Elam. This is before any of the great recruits of the last 2 years get a crack at it. VHIII, McMillan, Brian Poole, Valdez Showers, Caleb Brantley, 1 more secret, McAllister, Anzalone, etc. All who have the ability to play right away based on ability.

    This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by gatornate10 on 1/24/2013 at 6:16 PM

    gatornate10

  • Nice of you to provide all of 247 with free Buckeye content!

    signature image

    "As far as the downvotes. It's a gnat biting an lion" -- A member of tRCMB Justice League, taking the internet WAY WAY too seriously.

    Rocket_Play

  • Rocket_Play said...

    Nice of you to provide all of 247 with free Buckeye content!

    Hey at least he didn't put them #1

    signature image signature image signature image

    Ducksworth

  • Rocket_Play said...

    Nice of you to provide all of 247 with free Buckeye content!

    Knew this comment was going to be coming:)

    We are both atheists. When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours

    OmegaBuckeye

  • Isn't Ace Sanders going pro? And, bigger question - will SEC heads explode if only Ohio State & Oregon go undefeated?

    This post was edited by Frozen Buckeye on 1/24/2013 at 7:00 PM

    Badger Alumni, Lifelong Buckeye.

    Frozen Buckeye

  • psubills62 said...

    Agree with the top 5 in general. Though I've got this feeling that people are overrating aTm a little much simply because of Manziel.

    So is Penn State ineligible for these rankings or do you not think they're a top 50 team?

    That game Manziel had against Oklahoma was legendary and maybe I am swayed too much by that. He could get killed in the SEC if he tries running it like that. You hope that success does not go to his head ... so far he can't stay out of the headlines for all of his off-field stuff.

    Regarding Penn State, they would definitely be in my thoughts. They could be a top 50 team.

    As I look at it, they have 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense and both specialists.

    They lose McGloin and he was a huge part of their success. To expect Bench or Hackenberg to do anything close to what he did has to be a stretch.

    Zwinak rushed for 1,000 yards on the nose and Robinson had 77 catches. Will everything click in again perfectly? I dunno. I also like Carter at TE.

    Defense loses Hodges and Mauti. Barnes very promising at DE, Amos only guy back in secondary.

    The Penn State schedule for 2013:

    Aug. 31 vs. Syracuse (at MetLife Stadium; East Rutherford, N.J.), tossup
    Sept. 7 EASTERN MICHIGAN, W
    Sept. 14 VIRGINIA, W
    Sept. 21 KENT STATE, W
    Oct. 5 at Indiana, W
    Oct. 12 MICHIGAN (Homecoming), tossup
    Oct. 26 at Ohio State, L
    Nov. 2 ILLINOIS, W
    Nov. 9 at Minnesota, W
    Nov. 16 PURDUE, W
    Nov. 23 NEBRASKA, tossup
    Nov. 30 at Wisconsin, L

    That is 7 wins, 2 losses and 3 tossups; probably 9-3 if everything goes perfectly, 8-4 if all things are equal and 7-5 if there are some bumps.

    SteveHelwagen

  • jrogers2 said...

    Steve, great write up. I would point out that it's misleading to claim that Alabama is bringing back 8 defensive starters. Even if CJ Mosley were considered a starter (which, although technically debatable, I have no problem with), then there are still clearly 4 starters leaving the roster: Jessie Williams, Damian Square, Robert Lester, Dee Millner. Even if Nico were not considered a starter, who are you considering the 8 starters returning? If you include the nickel back or something like that, I think you should note that you're including 12-13 'starters' for each team. Just a thought. Thanks.

    I take a pretty liberal view of starters. Few guys start an entire 14 game season due to injuries or otherwise.

    On defense, I usually look at 11-12 guys because most teams play nickel half the time.

    I have DE Stinson, SLB Hubbard, MLB DePriest, WLB Mosley, Jack Dickson, CB Belue, S Sunseri, S Clinton-Dix all coming back and NG Williams, DE Square, LB Johnson and S Foster leaving.

    Those guys all played enough to be considered starters, even if they didn't start every game.

    That's what I was looking at.

    SteveHelwagen

  • SteveHelwagen said...

    Oct. 12 MICHIGAN (Homecoming), tossup
    Oct. 26 at Ohio State, L

    You're trying too hard.

    signature image signature image signature image

    Go Blue & Gig Em'!

    TAMUWolverine

  • gatornate10 said...

    Steve you should probably look at the players returning for teams alot closer.

    Right off the bat. Ace Sanders is not returning for USCe

    UF has 13 guys returning on Defense that have, had, or did start on D with 2 more with starting number of reps. Not 4 sir, 4 are returning in the secondary.

    Good catch on Sanders, I apologize on that. News on that did not come out until last week. He wasn't on the list I had as of the deadline on the 15th. I will take him out of there.

    Regarding Florida, maybe I didn't dig hard enough. It looks like roughly 13 guys played/started over the course of the year.

    6 are gone: Elam, Evans, Bostic, Hunter, Floyd and McCray

    7 back: Easley, Purifoy, Watkins, Ball, Morrison, Roberson and Bullard ... the first 3 started most of the year, the last 4 seemed to split time ... so, yes, they have a bit more experience back on defense than I originally thought

    SteveHelwagen

  • davebucknut said...

    Nice work Steve and for the most part you're right but I might have givin braska more love with Martinez being a sr. Loved how you think ttun is going to struggle.

    I like Nebraska, Martinez, Abdullah, Bell and Enunwa. THey are going to put points on the board.

    But is the defense going to do any better? ... and they were equal opp ... they gave up 500 rushing to wis and 500 passing to uga ... that was awful

    SteveHelwagen

  • Rocket_Play said...

    Nice of you to provide all of 247 with free Buckeye content!

    Hey, man, you are welcome ... how 3 graphs out of about 500 constitute Buckeye coverage is beyond me, but whateves

    SteveHelwagen

  • Frozen Buckeye said...

    Isn't Ace Sanders going pro? And, bigger question - will SEC heads explode if only Ohio State & Oregon go undefeated?

    Yes, all heads would explode

    SteveHelwagen

  • TAMUWolverine said...

    You're trying too hard.

    Michigan not a finished product, some holes to fill. It will be a nice team and I think Gardner will do well. They've lost at PSU with better teams, right?

    SteveHelwagen

  • SteveHelwagen said...

    Michigan not a finished product, some holes to fill. It will be a nice team and I think Gardner will do well. They've lost at PSU with better teams, right?

    Your list claims Michigan is a top 20 team, then you go on to tell a PSU fan that PSU isn't a top 50 team, yet you think the game will be a tossup. That's some interesting logic there. I assume it has nothing to do with Michigan being Michigan...

    signature image signature image signature image

    Go Blue & Gig Em'!

    TAMUWolverine

  • Michigan will be a much better team than Wisky. Michigan is top 15 or so and Wisky is just gonna suck. A&M that high is laughable IMO. They lose a ton of talent and three of there four best players aren't coming back including two guys that will go in the top 5 of the NFL draft, they don't reload with talent like BAMA does, Johnny Football returning or not. I also have a hard time thinking a team that loses it's head-coach just keeps winning big like Oregon. When has that ever happened? I think they lose 3-4 games next year. My top 5 would be BAMA, OSU, Georgia, Clemson and South Carolina. Each team returns there starting QB, each team has had little to no coaching changes, and each team has recruited well for the last 4 years. One more thing look out for TCU next year.

    JDgopher