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MrWoodson ●
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MrWoodson ●
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BetterOff ●
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BetterOff said...
I don't think it is that far fetched, but there eventually would have to be a limit on whether the ACC could allow another team to do this. You are essentially forcing your actuall full time members to play home and homes with a team that they possibly would rather not play. Imagine if you are a Florida St or Virginia Tech and in the middle of trying to get to the ACCCG, all of a sudden, you have to go to Austin, TX the first week of November to play, for the most part, a meaningless game. Most teams want that type of game out of the way early in the season so that they can concentrate on getting through their conference later in the season. If it's not one of the first few games or the last game on the schedule, teams are not going to want to play it.
Also, if Texas pulled the plug and decided to go this route, I think they could get the Big12 to keep the rest of their sports and lose football. As long as OU could keep the RRR, I don't think they would care and the Big12 would still want Texas as a market for basketball, IMO.
This post has been edited 4 times, most recently by MrWoodson on 9/14/2012 at 11:32 AM
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MrWoodson said...
Ok. Except (a) all ACC schools will benefit financially, including VaTech, and (b) with a $50 million exit fee, the ACC members who might object don't have much of an alternative to accepting whatever the majority wants. Also, ESPN has a $300 million dog of an investment in LHN. ESPN also controls the ACC TV rights and 50% of the B12 TV rights. ESPN has a substantial motivation to help make this happen because LHN suddenly goes from a dog to a massive success.
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MrWoodson ●
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MrWoodson said...
Ok. Except (a) all ACC schools will benefit financially, including VaTech, and (b) with a $50 million exit fee, the ACC members who might object don't have much of an alternative to accepting whatever the majority wants. Also, ESPN has a $300 million dog of an investment in LHN. ESPN also controls the ACC TV rights and 50% of the B12 TV rights. ESPN has a substantial motivation to help make this happen because LHN suddenly goes from a dog to a massive success.
Edit: Also, if you are right about the B12 allowing UT to become a non-football member, maybe that is the route UT takes. But UT still ends up independent for football, which is my primary premise.
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BetterOff said...
Depending on the conference, $50 million can be made up very quickly. The difference in ticket sales alone could make up about $3 million or so per year and then when you add in an additional $5 million+ in revenue per year, that $50 million can go away very quickly. Not to mention that fact that FSU could probably get another conference to pony up 10-15 million of it for them, if I had to guess.
This post was edited by MrWoodson on 9/14/2012 at 12:27 PM
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MrWoodson said...
Never say never, but $50 million is a big number. And it's not exactly clear that the B12's TV contract would remain better then the ACC's over the long-term without Texas. This move by ND will result in some sort of increase for the ACC. If UT were to join for non-football sports too, my guess is that would bring the ACC close to even with the B12. And how much is the next B12 contract going to be worth without UT? Even if a school like FSU could come up with the $50 million, it would have to think long and hard about the long-term implications of moving to a B12 conference that no longer has Texas.
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MrWoodson said...
C'mon. The short answer is $$$$. But the long answer is no you're not. UT already has explored leaving the B12 at least twice in the past three years. Over that time period, the B12 has lost two of its signature members in Nebraska and TAMU and two of its largest media markets in St. Louis and Denver. And going into year two LHN is a bust. Of course, the holy grail that was going to fix all of this was adding ND to the B12 for non-football in the short-term with the goal of getting their football down the line. Deloss Dodds supposedly was working a deal with his buddy Jack Swarbrick to make that happen. As of yesterday, the ND plan is dead. And with it most likely any chance of luring FSU or any other school from the ACC. Brace yourselves, Longhorn fans, because the next sound you are going to hear is Deloss Dodds and the B12 welcoming Louisville and BYU to the league. Enjoy!
This post was edited by FSUTrackLoveFSU on 9/14/2012 at 1:22 PM
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MrWoodson said...
Never say never, but $50 million is a big number. And it's not exactly clear that the B12's TV contract would remain better then the ACC's over the long-term without Texas. This move by ND will result in some sort of increase for the ACC. If UT were to join for non-football sports too, my guess is that would bring the ACC close to even with the B12. And how much is the next B12 contract going to be worth without UT? Even if a school like FSU could come up with the $50 million, it would have to think long and hard about the long-term implications of moving to a B12 conference that no longer has Texas.
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MrWoodson said...
C'mon. The short answer is $$$$. But the long answer is no you're not. UT already has explored leaving the B12 at least twice in the past three years. Over that time period, the B12 has lost two of its signature members in Nebraska and TAMU and two of its largest media markets in St. Louis and Denver. And going into year two LHN is a bust. Of course, the holy grail that was going to fix all of this was adding ND to the B12 for non-football in the short-term with the goal of getting their football down the line. Deloss Dodds supposedly was working a deal with his buddy Jack Swarbrick to make that happen. As of yesterday, the ND plan is dead. And with it most likely any chance of luring FSU or any other school from the ACC. Brace yourselves, Longhorn fans, because the next sound you are going to hear is Deloss Dodds and the B12 welcoming Louisville and BYU to the league. Enjoy!
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FSUTrackLove said...
I made the same argument about why FSU shouldn't leave the ACC. I got a million downvotes because I said the Big 12 is not stable. I only see two really stable conferences...SEC and PAC... Big 12 has the money but Penn St rumour from last year may be more real than a lot of people perceived... ACC and Big 12 are very unstable conferences... ACC had the advantage last year, this year the Big 12 had the advantage all summer, and then the ACC made a big move... Honestly if I was the ACC and was trying to save my conference I would go after Penn St. while they are cheap and down... weaken the B1G so it would force them to make a big move which would be for Texas... which would destroy the Big 12 and let things work themselves out from there...
Honestly one of those conferences is not going to last... (ACC or Big 12 I mean)
This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by MrWoodson on 9/14/2012 at 1:49 PM
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MrWoodson said...
PSU is not going anywhere. First, they hate ND because of the double cross ND pulled on them back when PSU joined the B10. Second, the research funding benefits of the CIC (B10 research consortium) are substantial and dwarf anything on the athletic side. And third, without going through all the numbers, when the B10 renews its TV deal in 2015, those revenues combined with BTN revenues should be $40-45 million per year. The ACC won't be anywhere near that. The SEC*, B10* and Texas will be significantly ahead of everyone in a few years, even the P12. PSU has no interest in walking away from that.
* The SEC and B10 are the only two major conferences that have yet to renegotiate or renew their TV deals. The SEC is in the process of doing theirs now and it is expected to include some sort of SEC Network. The B10 will likely start their renewal negotiations in 2013.
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How long before Texas goes independent?