The Blue Board

I can assure you the MSU players will be just as motivated, if not more so, as the UM players. The only thing they want more than beating Michigan's arse to go to the Rose Bowl, and a loss to UM would put a huge dent in that.

Maxwell has never thrown a meaningful pass in college, so yes, as of now, he should be considered suspect.

i know msu wants 5 in a row badly, but when ur on the losing end of a streak to ur hated rival i think the motivation is a bit greater...

believe me, when osu lost to um 8 times during the cooper era we wanted them BAD...and we still had some really good seasons during that time (couple big 10 titles and a rosebowl win), but even still today thats what most osu fans remember during that era...i really cant wait for that game (msu/um), since i have no dog in that fight i dont care who wins...just want to see some good ol fashion hitting between 2 hated rivals...

may the best team win, and woever does probably goes to the ccg against whisky...

Not sure why everyone is loving UM's defense against MSU.

Their DL got pushed around last year by our otherwise terrible run blocking OL and had 0 sacks. Now they've graduated Mike Martin and RVB and are replacing them with....William Campbell (bust so far) and a bulked up DE?

Now our OL returns 4 of 5 starters of whom 3 were first year starters last year. We've finally given Bell the full time job and Maxwell literally just needs to manage the game.

Denard vs. MSU's defense is a mismatch. He threw 1 TD and 3 INTs in 2010 and rushed at nearly 2 YPC less than his year's average. In 2011, he rushed at 2.33 YPC (nearly 3 YPC below his average) and had a 1:1 TD/INT ratio with 38% completion rate. MSU's defense lost 3 starters, true, but return every CB, DE, and LB on the roster. MSU's defense is too fast to the edges for Denard to exploit, and it will be the same way against Alabama imo.

I don't doubt that UM can win, especially at home, but I don't know how they are a favorite.

very good points macks,

i would guess that um is favored because um can stack the box and force an unproven qb to beat them...

and i have been slammed for my homefield advantage point, but i still contend its huge in college football...

maxwell will be in the biggest game of his life and he is at the most important position on the field...if he does well, msu will win...but thats just it, IF, because nobody really knows now how he will fare, hence um giving points early on...

4 pts sounds high to me. UM isn't known for a super special home field advantage. The game is not at night. And it's about a 90 minute drive by bus. I would give 3 pts for home field. That means Vegas considers us a 2 1/2 to 3 pts better team. I think that's a bit light, but who am I to argue with Vegas?

You're not flying in from the West Coast. You get full practice time at your own facilities. You get to eat lunch and dinner at your place and sleep in your own beds. If it's a 3:30 pm game, you probably don't even have to get up extra early. It's a short bus ride to a venue you've played at every other year for more than 60 years. It's probably 2.5 points, but I gave you 3 to be nice.

Vegas is always right on the dot.

There is no such thing as a standard home field advantage for every match up. It depends on many factors. In this instance, most are in your favor. For example, SDSU last year and AF this year would get more points to play at UM than MSU. Travel matters. Familiarity with the venue and opponent matters. It's a day game, not a night game (we are undefeated at home in night games). All those factors cut in MSU's favor. If MSU was unusually bad on the road, it would matter. Is that what you are saying? Is MSU a worse road team than average? And even if I accepted your 4 point HFA, Vegas still is giving us 1.5 to 2 points on top of that. Vegas considers us the better team.

I'm not exactly sure what you mean by the first statement.. UM's rated 1-2 pts higher than MSU at this point in the season, so I would expect the spreads to be very similar (1-2 pts different) if comparing what AFA at UM is and what AFA at MSU is... Travel really doesn't come into affect and neither does familiarity with the venue or opponents.. Just because Hoke has faced AFA before, doesn't mean the spread will be larger vs. a UM coach who hasn't faced AFA before in the exact same situation

you also need to factor in the "public" option of the team..UM's got a huge fan base and in games like that, books can add on 1-2 pts, knowing it's still going to get the same action on UM at -32 and at -34.5 (ie. bump up across couple dead #s)

2nd statement.. c'mon.. 1-0

3rd statement.. I'm saying UM's HFA counts for more than 3 pts

4th statement-That's been established.. currently Vegas would favor UM over MSU on a neutral field by 1 pt or so in August, which, per my original statement is clear- Vegas thinks the game is very close to a PK and even

From senior analyst from Caesars

Question: In a vacuum, what's Michigan's HFA worth in terms of pts? 3? 4? 5?

Answer: @ToddFuhrman one of the most over valued HFA's among the casual bettor. Elite venues get 5, I make UM's power # closer to 3.6 myself

So anyway where from 3.5 to 5 is UM's HFA...

That's a generic comment. Whether it's accurate or not is irrelevant. The HFA in a game of AF @ UM is different than the HFA in a game of MSU @ UM. If you don't understand that, you should get out of the business.

Of course.. I show stats from a guy who works in the business... and Woodson dismisses it as it's not relevant to UM's HFA..

Got it

Forgot how much UM fans hate stats