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Predict Michigan States Schedule

  • a2brutus said...

    well when non homers see the game as pretty even, and vegas sees it as pretty even, yeah, homefield is pretty huge...

    you have a great d, but ur qb is suspect at best, ur receivers are unproven as well...

    um has a great running qb (albeit a pretty bad passer) a good o line anchored by lewan but their d line is average at best...

    so, neither team will throw well and both will run effectively (msu right at um and denard on broken plays)...

    that looks pretty even to me and thats why i give the homefield team the edge...

    btw, past performances have nothing to do with what happens this yr...too much attrition in college football

    Suspect at best? How do you even know that? Maxwell was highly recruited and has been in the system for 3 years. I think many are going to be surprised by this kid.

    I'm not saying MSU is going to blow out UM, but they should definitely be considered the favorite, ESPECIALLY if they go into that game undefeated, because that will probably mean the offense is pretty good.

    This post was edited by JEK on 8/25/2012 at 12:17 PM

    "RCMB: You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainry." - some dude from MgoBlog

    JEK

  • JEK said...

    Suspect at best? How do you even know that? Maxwell was highly recruited and has been in the system for 3 years. I think many are going to be surprised by this kid.

    I'm not saying MSU is going to blow out UM, but they should definitely be considered the favorite, ESPECIALLY if they go into that game undefeated, because that will probably mean the offense is pretty good.

    Maxwell has never thrown a meaningful pass in college, so yes, as of now, he should be considered suspect.

    signature image signature image

    This is Michigan, fergodsakes.

    Never Lose Hoke

  • JEK said...

    Suspect at best? How do you even know that? Maxwell was highly recruited and has been in the system for 3 years. I think many are going to be surprised by this kid.

    I'm not saying MSU is going to blow out UM, but they should definitely be considered the favorite, ESPECIALLY if they go into that game undefeated, because that will probably mean the offense is pretty good.

    being in a system for 3 yrs is much, much different then starting and facing different defensive schemes week in and week out...

    we will see what the kid has, maybe he's the real mccoy, but until then he's mostly unproven...

    playing well in practice means squat, real time game experience is what matters...

    and you can think msu should be favored all you want (i can think osu should be favored in east lansing) doesnt mean it will happen...

    besides, who cares who's favored..both teams will get a chance to decide it on the field....gonna be a great game!!!!

    a2brutus

  • Sp4rt4ns said...

    I can assure you the MSU players will be just as motivated, if not more so, as the UM players. The only thing they want more than beating Michigan's arse to go to the Rose Bowl, and a loss to UM would put a huge dent in that.

    i know msu wants 5 in a row badly, but when ur on the losing end of a streak to ur hated rival i think the motivation is a bit greater...

    believe me, when osu lost to um 8 times during the cooper era we wanted them BAD...and we still had some really good seasons during that time (couple big 10 titles and a rosebowl win), but even still today thats what most osu fans remember during that era...i really cant wait for that game (msu/um), since i have no dog in that fight i dont care who wins...just want to see some good ol fashion hitting between 2 hated rivals...

    may the best team win, and woever does probably goes to the ccg against whisky...

    a2brutus

  • Never Lose Hoke said...

    Maxwell has never thrown a meaningful pass in college, so yes, as of now, he should be considered suspect.

    this!

    a2brutus

  • Macks said...

    Not sure why everyone is loving UM's defense against MSU.

    Their DL got pushed around last year by our otherwise terrible run blocking OL and had 0 sacks. Now they've graduated Mike Martin and RVB and are replacing them with....William Campbell (bust so far) and a bulked up DE?

    Now our OL returns 4 of 5 starters of whom 3 were first year starters last year. We've finally given Bell the full time job and Maxwell literally just needs to manage the game.

    Denard vs. MSU's defense is a mismatch. He threw 1 TD and 3 INTs in 2010 and rushed at nearly 2 YPC less than his year's average. In 2011, he rushed at 2.33 YPC (nearly 3 YPC below his average) and had a 1:1 TD/INT ratio with 38% completion rate. MSU's defense lost 3 starters, true, but return every CB, DE, and LB on the roster. MSU's defense is too fast to the edges for Denard to exploit, and it will be the same way against Alabama imo.

    I don't doubt that UM can win, especially at home, but I don't know how they are a favorite.

    I think that the optimism for Michigan's defense comes from the return of everybody in the back 7.

    signature image signature image

    This is Michigan, fergodsakes.

    Never Lose Hoke

  • Macks said...

    Not sure why everyone is loving UM's defense against MSU.

    Their DL got pushed around last year by our otherwise terrible run blocking OL and had 0 sacks. Now they've graduated Mike Martin and RVB and are replacing them with....William Campbell (bust so far) and a bulked up DE?

    Now our OL returns 4 of 5 starters of whom 3 were first year starters last year. We've finally given Bell the full time job and Maxwell literally just needs to manage the game.

    Denard vs. MSU's defense is a mismatch. He threw 1 TD and 3 INTs in 2010 and rushed at nearly 2 YPC less than his year's average. In 2011, he rushed at 2.33 YPC (nearly 3 YPC below his average) and had a 1:1 TD/INT ratio with 38% completion rate. MSU's defense lost 3 starters, true, but return every CB, DE, and LB on the roster. MSU's defense is too fast to the edges for Denard to exploit, and it will be the same way against Alabama imo.

    I don't doubt that UM can win, especially at home, but I don't know how they are a favorite.

    very good points macks,

    i would guess that um is favored because um can stack the box and force an unproven qb to beat them...

    and i have been slammed for my homefield advantage point, but i still contend its huge in college football...

    maxwell will be in the biggest game of his life and he is at the most important position on the field...if he does well, msu will win...but thats just it, IF, because nobody really knows now how he will fare, hence um giving points early on...

    a2brutus

  • Denard can't beat MSU. It's pretty simple. We own him. He's scared of our defense, and should be.

    OTPT

  • copemoney0 said...

    After taking in home field (somewhere around 4 pts for UM), this game is very nearly even and the books see it that way

    4 pts sounds high to me. UM isn't known for a super special home field advantage. The game is not at night. And it's about a 90 minute drive by bus. I would give 3 pts for home field. That means Vegas considers us a 2 1/2 to 3 pts better team. I think that's a bit light, but who am I to argue with Vegas?

    MrWoodson ●

  • MrWoodson said...

    4 pts sounds high to me. UM isn't known for a super special home field advantage. The game is not at night. And it's about a 90 minute drive by bus. I would give 3 pts for home field. That means Vegas considers us a 2 1/2 to 3 pts better team. I think that's a bit light, but who am I to argue with Vegas?

    UM is very solid at home and gets treated as such by the oddsmakers to the tune of more than the standard 3 pts (which is less standard than in the NFL)

    2011- 8-0 at home
    2007- 5-3
    2006- 7-0
    2005- 4-3
    2004- 6-0
    2003- 7-0
    2002- 5-1

    So 42-7 at home the last 7 years (sans RR era).. that's pretty darn good and a pretty good advantage

    This post has been edited 4 times, most recently by copemoney0 on 8/25/2012 at 2:03 PM

    copemoney0 ●

  • copemoney0 said...

    Look at UM's home road splits LY and during the LC era (they were losing to everyone during RR years).. UM is very solid at home and right around a .500 team on the road over the past 7-8 years.. their home field is def worth more than 3 points..

    You're not flying in from the West Coast. You get full practice time at your own facilities. You get to eat lunch and dinner at your place and sleep in your own beds. If it's a 3:30 pm game, you probably don't even have to get up extra early. It's a short bus ride to a venue you've played at every other year for more than 60 years. It's probably 2.5 points, but I gave you 3 to be nice.

    MrWoodson ●

  • MrWoodson said...

    You're not flying in from the West Coast. You get full practice time at your own facilities. You get to eat lunch and dinner at your place and sleep in your own beds. If it's a 3:30 pm game, you probably don't even have to get up extra early. It's a short bus ride to a venue you've played at every other year for more than 60 years. It's probably 2.5 points, but I gave you 3 to be nice.

    lol

    Not sure why I'm discussing Vegas odds with someone who clearly doesn't know what he's talking about..

    UM gets 2.5 pts for home field?? That's Minnesota territory

    smh

    copemoney0 ●

  • MrWoodson said...

    4 pts sounds high to me. UM isn't known for a super special home field advantage. The game is not at night. And it's about a 90 minute drive by bus. I would give 3 pts for home field. That means Vegas considers us a 2 1/2 to 3 pts better team. I think that's a bit light, but who am I to argue with Vegas?

    Vegas is always right on the dot.

    OTPT

  • And you guys realize Vegas' lines are just to get an even amount of money on both sides, right? Not necessarily what they think will happen?

    OTPT

  • copemoney0 said...

    lol

    Not sure why I'm discussing Vegas odds with someone who clearly doesn't know what he's talking about..

    UM gets 2.5 pts for home field?? That's Minnesota territory

    smh

    There is no such thing as a standard home field advantage for every match up. It depends on many factors. In this instance, most are in your favor. For example, SDSU last year and AF this year would get more points to play at UM than MSU. Travel matters. Familiarity with the venue and opponent matters. It's a day game, not a night game (we are undefeated at home in night games). All those factors cut in MSU's favor. If MSU was unusually bad on the road, it would matter. Is that what you are saying? Is MSU a worse road team than average? And even if I accepted your 4 point HFA, Vegas still is giving us 1.5 to 2 points on top of that. Vegas considers us the better team.

    This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by MrWoodson on 8/25/2012 at 2:16 PM

    MrWoodson ●

  • MrWoodson said...

    There is no such thing as a standard home field advantage for every match up. It depends on many factors. In this instance, most are in your favor. For example, SDSU last year and AF this year would get more points to play at UM than MSU. Travel matters. Familiarity with the venue and opponent matters. All those factors cut in MSU's favor. If MSU was unusually bad on the road, it would matter. Is that what you are saying? Is MSU a worse road team than average? And even if I accepted your 4 point HFA, Vegas still is giving us 1.5 to 2 points on top of that. Vegas considers us the better team.

    loco

    OTPT

  • MrWoodson said...

    For example, SDSU last year and AF this year would get more points to play at UM than MSU. Travel matters. Familiarity with the venue and opponent matters.

    It's a day game, not a night game (we are undefeated at home in night games).

    If MSU was unusually bad on the road, it would matter. Is that what you are saying? Is MSU a worse road team than average?

    And even if I accepted your 4 point HFA, Vegas still is giving us 1.5 to 2 points on top of that. Vegas considers us the better team.

    I'm not exactly sure what you mean by the first statement.. UM's rated 1-2 pts higher than MSU at this point in the season, so I would expect the spreads to be very similar (1-2 pts different) if comparing what AFA at UM is and what AFA at MSU is... Travel really doesn't come into affect and neither does familiarity with the venue or opponents.. Just because Hoke has faced AFA before, doesn't mean the spread will be larger vs. a UM coach who hasn't faced AFA before in the exact same situation

    you also need to factor in the "public" option of the team..UM's got a huge fan base and in games like that, books can add on 1-2 pts, knowing it's still going to get the same action on UM at -32 and at -34.5 (ie. bump up across couple dead #s)

    2nd statement.. c'mon.. 1-0 roflmao

    3rd statement.. I'm saying UM's HFA counts for more than 3 pts

    4th statement-That's been established.. currently Vegas would favor UM over MSU on a neutral field by 1 pt or so in August, which, per my original statement is clear- Vegas thinks the game is very close to a PK and even

    This post was edited by copemoney0 on 8/25/2012 at 2:24 PM

    copemoney0 ●

  • copemoney0 said...

    I'm not exactly sure what you mean by the first statement.. UM's rated 1-2 pts higher than MSU at this point in the season, so I would expect the spreads to be very similar (1-2 pts different) if comparing what AFA at UM is and what AFA at MSU is... Travel really doesn't come into affect and neither does familiarity with the venue or opponents.. Just because Hoke has faced AFA before, doesn't mean the spread will be larger vs. a UM coach who hasn't faced AFA before in the exact same situation

    you also need to factor in the "public" option of the team..UM's got a huge fan base and in games like that, books can add on 1-2 pts, knowing it's still going to get the same action on UM at -32 and at -34.5 (ie. bump up across couple dead #s)

    2nd statement.. c'mon.. 1-0 roflmao

    3rd statement.. I'm saying UM's HFA counts for more than 3 pts

    4th statement-That's been established.. currently Vegas would favor UM over MSU on a neutral field by 1 pt or so in August, which, per my original statement is clear- Vegas thinks the game is very close to a PK and even

    Most of what you wrote makes no sense. But one thing you wrote is correct and goes to the crux of the issue ... Vegas rates UM higher than MSU. So stop whining about the fact that most objective third party observers expect us to win the game. We are considered the better team and, using your math, we are being spotted 4 points in terms of HFA. The people who expect us to win are the sane and logical ones. The people who expect us to lose are wearing Green and White or Scarlet and Gray glasses.

    MrWoodson ●

  • MrWoodson said...
    It's probably 2.5 points, but I gave you 3 to be nice.

    From senior analyst from Caesars

    Question: In a vacuum, what's Michigan's HFA worth in terms of pts? 3? 4? 5?

    Answer: @ToddFuhrman one of the most over valued HFA's among the casual bettor. Elite venues get 5, I make UM's power # closer to 3.6 myself

    So anyway where from 3.5 to 5 is UM's HFA...

    This post was edited by copemoney0 on 8/25/2012 at 3:03 PM

    copemoney0 ●

  • OTPT said...

    Denard can't beat MSU. It's pretty simple. We own him. He's scared of our defense, and should be.

    But Tmart can

    signature image signature image signature image

    Landohusker

  • copemoney0 said...

    From senior analyst from Caesars

    Question: In a vacuum, what's Michigan's HFA worth in terms of pts? 3? 4? 5?

    Answer: @ToddFuhrman one of the most over valued HFA's among the casual bettor. Elite venues get 5, I make UM's power # closer to 3.6 myself

    So anyway where from 3.5 to 5 is UM's HFA...

    That's a generic comment. Whether it's accurate or not is irrelevant. The HFA in a game of AF @ UM is different than the HFA in a game of MSU @ UM. If you don't understand that, you should get out of the business.

    MrWoodson ●

  • Landohusker said...

    But Tmart can

    I wouldn't say that Martinez was the reason Nebraska won. He had 80 yards passing, 1 TD, and 1 INT. Burkhead + Nebraska's defensive performance + MSU's terrible offensive playcalling was what won Nebraska the game. Looking forward to the rematch.

    Final Countdown

  • MrWoodson said...

    That's a generic comment. Whether it's accurate or not is irrelevant. The HFA in a game of AF @ UM is different than the HFA in a game of MSU @ UM. If you don't understand that, you should get out of the business.

    Of course.. I show stats from a guy who works in the business... and Woodson dismisses it as it's not relevant to UM's HFA..

    Got it lol

    Forgot how much UM fans hate stats

    copemoney0 ●

  • Final Countdown said...

    I wouldn't say that Martinez was the reason Nebraska won. He had 80 yards passing, 1 TD, and 1 INT. Burkhead + Nebraska's defensive performance + MSU's terrible offensive playcalling was what won Nebraska the game. Looking forward to the rematch.

    why is it when you lose its terrible play calling, but when osu lost to msu it was dominance?

    thats weak, weak sauce...no excuses you lost to a better team...

    so did osu to msu last yr...

    a2brutus

  • a2brutus said...

    why is it when you lose its terrible play calling, but when osu lost to msu it was dominance?

    thats weak, weak sauce...no excuses you lost to a better team...

    so did osu to msu last yr...

    Dude... I said Nebraska had a good defensive performance. I gave them credit. But MSU's playcalling certainly didn't help things.

    Final Countdown

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