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Separating the Men from the Boys - The Elite Dozen

  • No, this isn't a thread about the Sandusky trial, but after writing the title it did make me
    pause and think for a minute.

    Anyway, when you get rid of all the fluff and cupcake stuff in non-conference games, and just boil it down to games against teams that were .500 or better from the AQ Conferences & ND, and teams that won 10+ plus games as a member of any of the 5 Non AQ conferences, it leaves you with only 12 teams in the BCS era who can boast about being a winner against winners.

    The rules I used were this:
    Non-Conference games only (Includes Post-season bowl games)
    All non-conference losses were counted in the total.
    Wins only counted against .500 or better teams from one of the 6 AQ Conference & ND.
    Or a win counted if it was against a 10+ win team from any of the 5 Non AQ Conferences.

    BCS Era (1998-2011)
    Top 40 (Winning Pct)

    (Over .500) #1-12
    ----------------------------------
    1.USC 25-10 (.714)
    2.LSU 16-7 (.696)
    3.Georgia 21-11 (.656)

    4.Miami (FL) 24-17 (.585)
    5.Texas 14-10 (.583)
    6.Ohio State 16-12 (.571)

    7.Florida 18-15 (.545)
    7.Wisconsin 12-10 (.545)
    9.Nebraska 13-11 (.542)

    10.Virginia Tech 18-16 (.529)
    11.Oklahoma 14-13 (.519)
    12.Florida St. 23-22 (.511)
    ======================

    (Over .400) #13-21
    ------------------------------------
    13.Utah 15-16 (.484)
    14.Auburn 10-12 (.454)
    15.Penn State 12-15 (.444)

    16.Boston College 12-16 (.429)
    17.Michigan 14-19 (.424)
    18.Oregon 11-15 (.423)

    18.TCU 11-15 (.423)
    20.Arkansas 8-11 (.421)
    21.Boise State 12-17 (.414)
    =======================

    (Over .350) #22-30
    -----------------------------------
    22.Wake Forest 9-14 (.391)
    23.Alabama 10-16 (.385)
    24.Missouri 8-13 (.381)

    25.Tennessee 9-15 (.375)
    26.NC State 10-17 (.370)
    27.UCLA 12-21 (.364)

    28.Kansas St. 8-14 (.364)
    29.Notre Dame 40-72 (.357)
    30.Michigan St. 10-18 (.357)
    =======================

    (Over .275) #31-40
    ---------------------------
    31.South Car 8-15 (.348)
    32.Oklahoma St. 7-14 (.333)
    33.Iowa 10-21 (.323)

    34.Texas Tech 6-13 (.316)
    35.Clemson 10-22 (.313)
    36.Ole Miss 6-14 (.300)

    37.Arizona St. 8-19 (.296)
    38.Oregon St. 7-18 (.280)
    39.Maryland 7-18 (.280)
    40.Louisville 10-26 (.278)
    =====================
    +++}+++}+++}+++}+++}+++
    --------------------------------

    TOP 20 (Total Wins Only)
    >< >< >< >< >< >< >< ><
    1.USC- 25
    2.Miami (FL)- 24
    3.Florida St- 23
    4.Georgia- 21
    5.Va Tech- 18
    Florida - 18

    7.Ohio State- 16
    LSU- 16
    9.Utah - 15
    10.Oklahoma- 14
    Michigan- 14
    12.Nebraska- 13
    Texas- 13

    14.Wisconsin- 12
    Boise St- 12
    UCLA- 12
    Penn St- 12
    Boston College- 12
    19.Oregon- 11
    20.TCU- 11

    Top 20 Total Wins Only Per Conference =
    PAC- 4, ACC- 4, Big Ten- 4,
    Big12- 3, SEC- 3, Mtn West- 1, WAC- 1.

    ========================================

    I wasn't surprised to see USC at the top, since they have been kicking everyone's ass during the BCS Era.
    However, I was surprised to see that teams like UCLA, Boston College, Boise State, and TCU, all put up more wins against good competition than Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Arkansas, South Carolina, Clemson, or Missouri did.

    Man, how did that happen? Aren't these teams I just listed suppose to define strength of schedule in the BCS Era. Isn't that what is constantly talked about when discussing college football, about how tough it is when these teams play each other. Yet, none of these teams has a winning record against other good teams. Man, talk about a total misrepresentation of the truth.

    =========================================================

    Wow, the rest of the SEC. I can see why they don't play any road games
    and why they want to play only amongst themselves.

    Auburn (10-12)
    0-5 road games

    Alabama (10-16)
    2-2 road games

    Arkansas (8-11)
    1-2 road games

    Tennessee (9-15)
    2-2 road games

    South Carolina (8-17)
    1-6 road games

    Ole Miss (6-14)
    0-3 road games

    Kentucky (5-15)
    1-2 road games
    *1 road win @ Louisville(7-6)
    4 other wins vs Clemson(8-5), Florida St(7-6), Louisville(6-6), & Central Michigan(10-4).

    Miss State (5-18)
    1-3 road games
    *1 road win @Middle Tennessee State (10-3).
    4 other wins vs Clemson(6-6), Texas A&M(7-5), C. Florida(10-4), and Michigan(7-6).

    Vanderbilt (2-22)
    0-6 road games
    *2 wins vs BC(9-5) 16-14, in Music City Bowl in Nashville,TN, & vs Rice (10-3).
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    8 total road wins by those 9 SEC schools in 14 years!!!
    USC had 9 road wins by themself.

    The Rest of the ACC

    Wake Forest (9-14)
    NC State (10-17)
    Clemson (10-22)
    Georgia Tech (9-24)
    North Carolina (8-26)
    Maryland (7-18)
    Virginia (7-26)
    Duke (2-32)

    That's over a 14 year period, not a lot of work being done by any of these schools.

    Props to USC, LSU, Georgia, Miami, and Ohio State = The only schools that are at least 4 games over
    .500 against .500 or better teams OOC in the BCS era.

    This post was edited by NcaaAssassinG13 on 6/16/2012 at 11:15 AM

    NcaaAssassinG13

  • way to make fun of rape victims.

    signature image

    warsofeagles

  • Nothing to see here.

    SEC! SEC! SEC!

    Alonzo Harris ●

  • It's only making fun if you laughed.....

    signature image signature image signature image

    BBucksorBeGone8 ●

  • Damn looks like our schedule blows everyone else's out of the water.. We need to scale it back some..

    signature image

    star69

  • NcaaAssassinG13 said...

    The rules I used were this: Non-Conference games only (Includes Post-season bowl games) All non-conference losses were counted in the total. Wins only counted against .500 or better teams from one of the 6 AQ Conference & ND. Or a win counted if it was against a 10+ win team from any of the 5 Non AQ Conferences.

    BCS Era (1998-2011) Top 40 (Winning Pct) 6.Texas 13-10 (.565)

    texas has only played 23 games against winning aq conf teams since 98?

    i like the premise of the analysis. how did you pull that info? manually, or scrape a site and put into a database?

    roger huerta

  • But, but....nashunal champeensheps!!!

    signature image

    devidee ●

  • Appreciate the effort, some results are surprising

    signature image

    PSUTE

  • Tenn vs FSU- Tenn win
    LSU vs OU- LSU win
    UF vs Ohio St- UF win
    LSU vs Ohio St- LSU win
    UF vs OU- UF win
    Bama vs Texas- Bama win
    Auburn vs Oregon- AU win
    Bama vs LSU- Bama win

    This is all that matters, pretty much.

    CRgator1 ●

  • roger huerta said...

    texas has only played 23 games against winning aq conf teams since 98?

    i like the premise of the analysis. how did you pull that info? manually, or scrape a site and put into a database?

    That reminds me, I forgot to give mention that I primarily used Stassen.com, which is a great site, to get these numbers. I just went through each team's OOC schedules manually, I used some other sites at times but primarily Stassen.Com.

    Since I counted all losses, I think Texas actually played only 18 games against over .500 AQ schools because they lost to 2 under .500 Pac12 teams and a .500 NC State team, and also had a couple win vs 10 win non AQ schools.

    NcaaAssassinG13

  • CRgator1 said...

    Tenn vs FSU- Tenn win LSU vs OU- LSU win UF vs Ohio St- UF win LSU vs Ohio St- LSU win UF vs OU- UF win Bama vs Texas- Bama win Auburn vs Oregon- AU win Bama vs LSU- Bama win

    This is all that matters, pretty much.

    Winner Winner - Chicken dinner

    The over/under for the collective Southeast to chime in was 10 posts.

    LSU & Georgia fans won't need to the use that crutch,
    because their accomplishments stand on their own,
    no need for them to resort to the collective.

    NcaaAssassinG13

  • PSUTE said...

    Appreciate the effort, some results are surprising


    Utah, definately doesn't get the credit or respect it deserves.
    Even after they destroyed Alabama in the SEC's house.

    I think Utah is going to be pretty good this year. If they were located
    in the south, they would probably starts the season ranked about #12-14.

    NcaaAssassinG13

  • Crutch? Lol.

    CRgator1 ●

  • CRgator1 said...

    Crutch? Lol.


    Considering that Florida went 6-15 against AQ teams that had
    9 win or better seasons during this time span, which included wins
    over Cincinnati, Maryland, and two against 9 win Florida State teams,
    I'd say it's probably best you talk about the SEC, rather than just Florida.

    Florida is 0-8
    vs 10+ win Miami and Florida St teams since 1998, and 6 of
    Florida's wins that counted in their 18 win total were against avg Florida St
    teams that won 7/8 games.

    NcaaAssassinG13

  • Good post. Definitely enlightening to realize that we are only the maybe 30th-best program in America.

    ASBamaguy

  • So ]only non-conference games were included? What do the standings look like when you expand it and include conference games?

    signature image signature image signature image

    thejumper5 ●

  • NcaaAssassinG13 said...

    Considering that Florida went 6-15 against AQ teams that had
    9 win or better seasons during this time span, which included wins
    over Cincinnati, Maryland, and two against 9 win Florida State teams,
    I'd say it's probably best you talk about the SEC, rather than just Florida.

    Florida is 0-8
    vs 10+ win Miami and Florida St teams since 1998, and 6 of
    Florida's wins that counted in their 18 win total were against avg Florida St
    teams that won 7/8 games.

    Shoot out all the #'s and stats you want dude, lol.

    Still wont take away those 2 BCS 'ship wins in '06 and '08. So there's no need for me to ride the SEC.

    FSU/Miami can keep those 8 wins. All 3 teams won championships within that time period, so it all worked out.

    But, keep trying.

    CRgator1 ●

  • ASBamaguy said...

    Good post. Definitely enlightening to realize that we are only the maybe 30th-best program in America.


    If the post was about right now, of course the Tide would be at or near the top. But since it takes into account the whole body of work, that means the not so glorious years of when Bama lost to
    La-Monroe, Northern Illinois, and Central Florida at home are included.

    4 great years out of 14 for Alabama. About 30 is probably right.

    NcaaAssassinG13

  • CRgator1 said...

    Tenn vs FSU- Tenn win LSU vs OU- LSU win UF vs Ohio St- UF win LSU vs Ohio St- LSU win UF vs OU- UF win Bama vs Texas- Bama win Auburn vs Oregon- AU win Bama vs LSU- Bama win

    This is all that matters, pretty much.

    You really don't, that's why its strange that you did. ^^^

    Again, USC and LSU have been consistently the best in this era.
    Especially in games against the best.

    Most Wins OOC vs 10 or more win teams (1998-2011)
    -------------------------------------------------------------
    USC- 11
    LSU- 7
    Ohio St- 7
    Miami- 6
    Oklahoma- 6
    Boise St-6

    NcaaAssassinG13

  • Nicely done. Puts a lot into perspective. Shows certain teams winning in a playoff isn't a forgone conclusion. Also shows how tough it is to win on the road. Big ten might be getting a bit of a bad rap considering most of the losses where probably on the road in a bowl. Which by the looks of things the sec can identify with.

    signature image

    Do infants have as much fun in infancy as adults do in adultery?

    AnthonyBourdain ●

  • NcaaAssassinG13 said...

    You really don't, that's why its strange that you did. ^^^

    Again, USC and LSU have been consistently the best in this era.
    Especially in games against the best.

    Most Wins OOC vs 10 or more win teams (1998-2011)
    -------------------------------------------------------------
    USC- 11
    LSU- 7
    Ohio St- 7
    Miami- 6
    Oklahoma- 6
    Boise St-6

    I agree. USC has been the big dog in that category.

    If anything comes out of the playoff talks, I hope its increased ooc sos resumes.

    I mean, it wouldnt change really anything for most teams, except for UF. But, I loved the 90's. I wish UF played a role in some of those big matchups, outside of FSU.

    CRgator1 ●

  • I appreciate all the work, but it seems like a system that is definitely flawed. For instance, in 2009 we went 14-0 and won the national championship. Southern Cal was 9-4, but by your measures they apparently had a better season than Alabama that year.

    This post was edited by ASBamaguy on 6/16/2012 at 3:30 AM

    ASBamaguy

  • Thanks for the effort to post this...good info...I have always said SOS should be the top consideration in the polls.

    signature image signature image signature image

    Dawg E Style161

  • NcaaAssassinG13 said...

    6.Texas 13-10 (.565)

    check my math here, but i have texas at 15-9 (admittedly, i did half of the research last night when i came home from the bar, so...)

    wins

    1998 miss st
    1999 stan
    2001 unc
    2001 uw
    2002 lsu
    2004 mich
    2005 tosu
    2005 usc
    2006 iowa
    2007 asu
    2007 ucf
    2008 rice
    2008 tosu
    2011 byu
    2011 cal

    losses

    1998 ucla
    1999 ark
    1999 ncst
    2000 oregon
    2000 stan
    2003 ark
    2003 wsu
    2006 tosu
    2009 bama

    btw - props to you for putting this together. i love threads where someone puts in real work to measure something of value objectively.

    roger huerta

  • ASBamaguy said...

    I appreciate all the work, but it seems like a system that is definitely flawed. For instance, in 2009 we went 14-0 and won the national championship. Southern Cal was 9-4, but by your measures they apparently had a better season than Alabama that year.

    I don't think you are understanding the premise of the post. It's about all 14 years combined as one whole body of work, rather than one random year like 2009.

    Really what it should make you ask yourself is why a team like Alabama over the last 14 years has only won 38% of their games outside of the SEC when confronted with a .500 or better opponent and yet Alabama has won 62% of their games when playing in the conference that they sell as "the end all-be all toughest conference ever".

    Here's something interesting. Comparing the win pct OOC to Conference win pct.
    Most every team did improve their win pct. in conf (because I counted all games) but I think when you see a drastic increase of anything 15% or more, I think that is an indicator of 1 or 2 things.

    1- The team tends to underachieve in big games, and or is just a way better team at home, and just not as good on a neutral field on a big stage. (Oregon comes to mind here).
    2- Perhaps the conference the team plays in isn't nearly as strong as it is made out to be.

    It's only relevant if the team is close to or above .500 in it's own conference.
    So I didn't list any teams well below .500 in their conference.

    % Improvement in Conf.
    Ohio State = 18% better in conf.
    Michigan = 24% better in conf.
    Penn St = 14% better in conf.
    Iowa = 21% better in conf.
    Wisconsin = 9% better in conf.

    Miami = 8% better in conf
    Clemson = 25% better in conf.
    VaTech = 24% better in conf.
    Florida St = 21% better in conf.

    LSU = 5% worse in conf.
    Georgia = 1% better in conf.
    Arkansas = 11% better in conf.
    Alabama = 24% better in conf.
    Florida = 18% better in conf.
    Auburn = 15% better in conf.
    Tennessee = 22% better in conf

    Nebraska = 7% better in conf.
    Texas = 16% better in conf.
    Oklahoma = 25% better in conf.
    Kansas St = 19% better in conf.
    Texas Tech = 22% better in conf.

    USC = .002% worse in conf.
    UCLA = 12% better in conf.
    Oregon = 29% better in conf.
    Oregon St = 26% better in conf.

    I think it's kind of interesting that some of the higher % changes are the teams that have not done real well in the biggest games - teams like Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oregon, VaTech, Clemson.

    And the teams that didn't change much - teams like LSU, Georgia, USC, & Miami all have been pretty good in bowl games and big games OOC.

    This post was edited by NcaaAssassinG13 on 6/16/2012 at 11:08 AM

    NcaaAssassinG13

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