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Staff question - How to rank potential

  • mizAU said...

    I'm on the side of the discussion that agrees that the star rankings should deal with the impact a player can have on his college team. I have to agree with whoever said that a 5* should be able to come in and contribute Day 1 and a 3* will more likely than not redshirt or play a lot less his Freshman year.

    I see what you're saying about the NFL only caring about talent, so that's how you measure, but being a good football player isn't all about talent. The rankings should rate how good of a football player that person is, including size, speed, smarts, intangibles and talent.

    size, speed, smarts, intangibles are all part of the equation too. I'm just emphasizing the word "talent" to kind of simplify things to point where all the NFL and all we care about is how good of a football player can this guy be. It's not about how many yards do I think he'll be able to put up in a spread offense or how many sacks can he get as a career 3rd down rusher. It's about how good of a football player is this guy capable of being and how likely is he to reach that potential. That's what we look at and that's what the NFL looks at.

    Barton Simmons | 247Sports | National Recruiting Analyst | Twitter: @bartonsimmons

    Barton S ●

  • Barton S said...

    Talent as a football player. If the NFL thought Dontari Poe was just a sideshow freak he would've never been drafted as high as he was.

    Do you honestly think Poe was drafted so high because of his tape? Put another way, if Poe doesn't have the freakish combine numbers does he get drafted that high?

    signature image

    devidee

  • I agree with Barton. I want guys ranked on likely hood of them being future pros not likely hood they'll be great college players. The whole "a 5 star should be someone who makes an immediate impact" argument is ridiculous to me. If a 5 star goes to Bama he's most likely not going to start his freshmen year but if he goes to UAB then his chances of starting increase exponentially.

    BMoney41747

  • devidee said...

    What if both Shugarts and Brewster were just horribly coached at Ohio State? That is, they were 5 star talents coming out of high school but were coached so poorly that NFL talent evaluators didn't think they were draft worthy.

    Do you think Ebner was under-utilized at Ohio State? Based on your philosophy Ebner was a 4 start talent.

    That's just like the question of "what if Dontari Poe turns out to be a bust?"

    We have to draw the line somewhere and we have just basically designated the NFL evaluators to be our judge. So we'll take whatever evaluation they hand down to be the final metric.

    You're going to have to give me some help on Ebner's career at Ohio State. Did he basically only play special teams? Was he drafted to play safety or be an NFL special teams guy?

    Barton Simmons | 247Sports | National Recruiting Analyst | Twitter: @bartonsimmons

    Barton S ●

  • *B-Money* said...

    I agree with Barton. I want guys ranked on likely hood of them being future pros not likely hood they'll be great college players. The whole "a 5 star should be someone who makes an immediate impact" argument is ridiculous to me. If a 5 star goes to Bama he's most likely not going to start his freshmen year but if he goes to UAB then his chances of starting increase exponentially.

    Well that's just because Bama is loaded. That doesn't mean he can't make an impact Day 1, just that they don't need him to. I just think that since we're following College recruiting, players should be ranked on their college potential. If I want to see who's oing to be a good pro player, I'll look at mock drafts and big boards.

    That's just my opinion though, and obviously you guys are the pros at this.

    signature image signature image signature image

    Huddles are for rookies.

    mizAU

  • Barton, do you know what they other sites base their evaluations on? Just wondering. I know you worked for some others for a time. Is this a pretty standard evaluation process or is this different on 247Sports?

    signature image signature image signature image

    kitemac ●

  • *B-Money* said...

    I agree with Barton. I want guys ranked on likely hood of them being future pros not likely hood they'll be great college players.

    See, I am the opposite. I would prefer them be ranked based on their potential on the college level. Trying to evaluate 10,11,12 graders based on their NFL potential just doesn't make a lot of sense to me. It's hard enough trying to project their college careers.

    Big A ●

  • devidee said...

    Do you honestly think Poe was drafted so high because of his tape? Put another way, if Poe doesn't have the freakish combine numbers does he get drafted that high?

    Of course not but he didn't get drafted as a first rounder just because he can run fast at 340 pounds. It's all part of the equation.

    If NFL evaluators didn't think that his tape combined with his athleticism showed first round ability, he wouldn't have been drafted as such. At this point whether they're right or wrong is irrelevant for our purposes.

    Barton Simmons | 247Sports | National Recruiting Analyst | Twitter: @bartonsimmons

    Barton S ●

  • Barton S said...

    That's just like the question of "what if Dontari Poe turns out to be a bust?"

    We have to draw the line somewhere and we have just basically designated the NFL evaluators to be our judge. So we'll take whatever evaluation they hand down to be the final metric.

    You're going to have to give me some help on Ebner's career at Ohio State. Did he basically only play special teams? Was he drafted to play safety or be an NFL special teams guy?

    Again, I understand the line has to be drawn somewhere.

    I'd rather you go back and look at what the player actually did in college as opposed to whether or not they get drafted to evaluate if the ranking coming out of high school was accurate. You are giving way too much credit to NFL evaluators. As a Browns fan, I can attest to how stupid NFL execs/scouts can actually be.

    Ebner was a walk-on special teams player at Ohio State. He was a back-up safety but primarily played on special teams. Solid player but not a stand out. I assume the Patriots drafted him to play special teams.

    signature image

    devidee

  • kitemac said...

    Barton, do you know what they other sites base their evaluations on? Just wondering. I know you worked for some others for a time. Is this a pretty standard evaluation process or is this different on 247Sports?

    All I know is that Rivals has the same perspective and takes the same approach. Of course the people that developed that approach with that perspective are primarily over here at 247 now but Rivals has maintained the same mentality as far as I know.

    I don't really know what the Scout and ESPN philosophies are.

    Barton Simmons | 247Sports | National Recruiting Analyst | Twitter: @bartonsimmons

    Barton S ●

  • Barton S said...

    Of course not but he didn't get drafted as a first rounder just because he can run fast at 340 pounds. It's all part of the equation.

    If NFL evaluators didn't think that his tape combined with his athleticism showed first round ability, he wouldn't have been drafted as such. At this point whether they're right or wrong is irrelevant for our purposes.

    I can guarantee no one had Poe going in the first round prior to his combine workout. No one. I think he did get drafted so high precisely because he can run fast at 340 pounds.

    signature image

    devidee

  • mizAU said...

    Well that's just because Bama is loaded. That doesn't mean he can't make an impact Day 1, just that they don't need him to. I just think that since we're following College recruiting, players should be ranked on their college potential. If I want to see who's oing to be a good pro player, I'll look at mock drafts and big boards.

    That's just my opinion though, and obviously you guys are the pros at this.

    I got to disagree a bit. Onterio is a great player for us and puts up a lot of numbers for us within the spread system that we were in. If he went to Bama or a pro style offense would he be that great? I certainly doubt it big time. He's a big player for us but may not be on other teams. To us he is a high 4 star guy but that is due to our old system. If you were going to rank them by what college numbers they are going to put up, he would have been a high 4 star guy signing with us. Say on signing day he decided to instead commit to Bama. Should he go to a 2 star just because it is a terrible choice for a speed back system? Should he be a high 4 star guy just because he is very productive for our spread?

    signature image signature image signature image

    kitemac ●

  • devidee said...

    Ebner was a walk-on special teams player at Ohio State. He was a back-up safety but primarily played on special teams. Solid player but not a stand out. I assume the Patriots drafted him to play special teams.

    In that case I don't think Ohio State 'underutilized Ebner'. It sounds like he's just a great special teams player and the Patriots placed a high value on that. I would label him an outlier more than anything. It's hard for me to believe that we would ever rank a guy like that as a four-star knowing that he would be a special teams player in his career and be drafted as a special teams player.

    I think that just means that the Patriots place a higher value than most on special teams. I can't imagine he was expected to get drafted. Was he?

    Barton Simmons | 247Sports | National Recruiting Analyst | Twitter: @bartonsimmons

    Barton S ●

  • kitemac said...

    I got to disagree a bit. Onterio is a great player for us and puts up a lot of numbers for us within the spread system that we were in. If he went to Bama or a pro style offense would he be that great? I certainly doubt it big time. He's a big player for us but may not be on other teams. To us he is a high 4 star guy but that is due to our old system. If you were going to rank them by what college numbers they are going to put up, he would have been a high 4 star guy signing with us. Say on signing day he decided to instead commit to Bama. Should he go to a 2 star just because it is a terrible choice for a speed back system? Should he be a high 4 star guy just because he is very productive for our spread?

    Exactly

    Barton Simmons | 247Sports | National Recruiting Analyst | Twitter: @bartonsimmons

    Barton S ●

  • Barton S said...

    In that case I don't think Ohio State 'underutilized Ebner'. It sounds like he's just a great special teams player and the Patriots placed a high value on that. I would label him an outlier more than anything. It's hard for me to believe that we would ever rank a guy like that as a four-star knowing that he would be a special teams player in his career and be drafted as a special teams player.

    I think that just means that the Patriots place a higher value than most on special teams. I can't imagine he was expected to get drafted. Was he?

    Absolutely not. But that's my point.

    signature image

    devidee

  • kitemac said...

    I got to disagree a bit. Onterio is a great player for us and puts up a lot of numbers for us within the spread system that we were in. If he went to Bama or a pro style offense would he be that great? I certainly doubt it big time. He's a big player for us but may not be on other teams. To us he is a high 4 star guy but that is due to our old system. If you were going to rank them by what college numbers they are going to put up, he would have been a high 4 star guy signing with us. Say on signing day he decided to instead commit to Bama. Should he go to a 2 star just because it is a terrible choice for a speed back system? Should he be a high 4 star guy just because he is very productive for our spread?

    That's why QB's are being split between pro-style and dual threat.

    signature image

    devidee

  • devidee said...

    I'd rather you go back and look at what the player actually did in college as opposed to whether or not they get drafted to evaluate if the ranking coming out of high school was accurate. You are giving way too much credit to NFL evaluators. As a Browns fan, I can attest to how stupid NFL execs/scouts can actually be.

    Here are the top passers in college football history:

    1. Timmy Chang, Hawaii: (2000-2004) 17,072 yards
    2. Graham Harrell, Texas Tech (2005-2008)
    3. Ty Detmer, BYU: (1988-91) 15,031
    4. Colt Brennan, Hawaii: (2005-07) 14,193
    5. Case Keenum, Houston: (2007-present) 13,586
    6. Philip Rivers, North Carolina State: (2000-03) 13,484
    7. Colt McCoy, Texas: (2004-2008) 12,253
    8. Kevin Kolb, Houston: (2003-06) 12,964
    9. Dan LeFevour, Central Michigan: (2006-2009) 12,905
    10. Tim Rattay, Louisiana Tech: (1997-99) 12,746

    Do you honestly think that even half those guys deserve to be 5-stars coming out of high school? By your logic all of those guys should be 5-stars but if June Jones leaves Hawaii the week after signing day and they hire Fran Solich, Timmy Chang is instantly a 3-star guy.

    Barton Simmons | 247Sports | National Recruiting Analyst | Twitter: @bartonsimmons

    Barton S ●

  • kitemac said...

    I got to disagree a bit. Onterio is a great player for us and puts up a lot of numbers for us within the spread system that we were in. If he went to Bama or a pro style offense would he be that great? I certainly doubt it big time. He's a big player for us but may not be on other teams. To us he is a high 4 star guy but that is due to our old system. If you were going to rank them by what college numbers they are going to put up, he would have been a high 4 star guy signing with us. Say on signing day he decided to instead commit to Bama. Should he go to a 2 star just because it is a terrible choice for a speed back system? Should he be a high 4 star guy just because he is very productive for our spread?

    No, he should be rated for how good of a football player he is, period. If he goes to Alabama, either Saban finds a way to utilize him or he just made a bad decision for himself.

    These kids get to choose where they go to school. Corey Grant was a stud coming out of high school, ranked 4*. He went to Alabama, but that didn't change the fact that he was a 4* RB. Even if he never would've transferred to AU, that doesn't mean he wasn't a good football player coming out of HS just because he made a bad decision for himself.

    signature image signature image signature image

    Huddles are for rookies.

    mizAU

  • kitemac said...

    I got to disagree a bit. Onterio is a great player for us and puts up a lot of numbers for us within the spread system that we were in. If he went to Bama or a pro style offense would he be that great? I certainly doubt it big time. He's a big player for us but may not be on other teams. To us he is a high 4 star guy but that is due to our old system. If you were going to rank them by what college numbers they are going to put up, he would have been a high 4 star guy signing with us. Say on signing day he decided to instead commit to Bama. Should he go to a 2 star just because it is a terrible choice for a speed back system? Should he be a high 4 star guy just because he is very productive for our spread?

    Great breakdown kite. There are too many variables in college (depth chart, playing style, conference, etc.) to determine if a guy will be a great college player. On the other hand the NFL is fairly uniform in their schemes and play style. For this reason the NFL gets the players with the most talent, not the players who put up the best numbers in college.

    This post was edited by BMoney41747 on 5/10/2012 at 11:40 AM

    BMoney41747

  • mizAU said...

    No, he should be rated for how good of a football player he is, period. If he goes to Alabama, either Saban finds a way to utilize him or he just made a bad decision for himself.

    These kids get to choose where they go to school. Corey Grant was a stud coming out of high school, ranked 4*. He went to Alabama, but that didn't change the fact that he was a 4* RB. Even if he never would've transferred to AU, that doesn't mean he wasn't a good football player coming out of HS just because he made a bad decision for himself.

    Exactly.

    Big A ●

  • *B-Money* said...

    Great breakdown kite. There are too many variables in college (depth chart, playing style, conference, etc.) to determine if a guy will be a great college player. On the other hand the NFL is fairly uniform in their schemes and play style. For this reason the NFL gets the players with the most talenothin the players who put up the best numbers in college.

    Yeah, but using the same example (McCalebb), why was he rated so highly coming out? He's not a big-time NFL prospect, but he's a damn good college player.

    signature image signature image signature image

    Huddles are for rookies.

    mizAU

  • Barton S said...

    Here are the top passers in college football history:

    1. Timmy Chang, Hawaii: (2000-2004) 17,072 yards 2. Graham Harrell, Texas Tech (2005-2008) 3. Ty Detmer, BYU: (1988-91) 15,031 4. Colt Brennan, Hawaii: (2005-07) 14,193 5. Case Keenum, Houston: (2007-present) 13,586 6. Philip Rivers, North Carolina State: (2000-03) 13,484 7. Colt McCoy, Texas: (2004-2008) 12,253 8. Kevin Kolb, Houston: (2003-06) 12,964 9. Dan LeFevour, Central Michigan: (2006-2009) 12,905 10. Tim Rattay, Louisiana Tech: (1997-99) 12,746

    Do you honestly think that even half those guys deserve to be 5-stars coming out of high school? By your logic all of those guys should be 5-stars but if June Jones leaves Hawaii the week after signing day and they hire Fran Solich, Timmy Chang is instantly a 3-star guy.

    Again, you are using the system QB as an example.

    If college fit doesn't matter at all why even break the QB position into pro-style and dual threat? Shouldn't the evaulation simply be whether this QB will someday play in the NFL?

    signature image

    devidee

  • *B-Money* said...

    Great breakdown kite. There are too many variables in college (depth chart, playing style, conference, etc.) to determine if a guy will be a great college player. On the other hand the NFL is fairly uniform in their schemes and play style. For this reason the NFL gets the players with the most talenothin the players who put up the best numbers in college.

    Wrong. Those issues of depth chart, playing styles, and conference exist in the pros as well. Do Falcons run the same offense as the Patriots? What about the Saints and the 49ers. Are they running the same offense. How about Philly and the Steelers. Do they run the same defense? NFL teams run spreads, I formations, pro sets, 2 TE looks just like they do in college. On defense they run 4-3, 3-4, Tampa 2.

    Big A ●

  • mizAU said...

    Yeah, but using the same example (McCalebb), why was he rated so highly coming out? He's not a big-time NFL prospect, but he's a damn good college player.

    Honestly I have no idea what his ranking was but maybe the recruiting sites saw him as a dynamic slot receiver/return guy. Dude is fast as hell.

    BMoney41747

  • Big A said...

    Wrong. Those issues of depth chart, playing styles, and conference exist in the pros as well. Do Falcons run the same offense as the Patriots? What about the Saints and the 49ers. Are they running the same offense. How about Philly and the Steelers. Do they run the same defense? NFL teams run spreads, I formations, pro sets, 2 TE looks just like they do in college. On defense they run 4-3, 3-4, Tampa 2.

    You're now just arguing for the sake of arguing. You knew what I meant. In college you can play a team that runs the triple option one week and a team that runs the air raid the next week. Not gonna happen in the pros. I understand teams run different schemes on D but they draft the most talented guy that fits their scheme.

    BMoney41747

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