The Blue Board

Wouldn't you have to include on what type of college system he goes to?

Again, so why even have different QB categories? ie: Pro-style or dual threat? Why have the jumbo athlete category? If the only evaluation is whether the player is going to go Pro, why are these sub-categories necessary.

Are you saying a dual-threat QB can't be a high draft pick and be a college QB? Vince Young, Mike Vick, Tim Tebow, Robert Griffin, etc. All dual-threat guys, all drafted in the first round. I don't follow your point.

No.

I'm saying why does it matter if they are Dual threat or pro coming out of high school in terms of the evaluation.

Those are two different positions.

QB is one position. Either a guy is good enough to play QB at the NFL level or he isn't.

Tebow is an interesting example. I realize he got drafted in the 1st round (again, the stupidity of NFL scouts) but he was certainly a more productive player at the college level. So I'd say he's a definite 5 star given his college potential but not a 5 star given his NFL potential.

Cam Newton was ranked as a duel threat guy and was a 5 star. Pretty sure he was considered a 5 star on the college and pro level. They are two categories to show the difference. They are both ranked against eachother though.

Barton,

I am a little late to the party, but I read every post and this is a great discussion. I think a great illustrative example of recruiting websites using star ratings to forecast future potential and success is Jason Pierre Paul. According to Rivals, he was a 4-star talent coming out of high school (see below). Since he only began playing football in his senior year (apparently begrudgingly, after his high school coach basically begged him), there was not alot of tape to look at to project him. However, the Rivals obviously saw his small amount of tape and looked at his size (listed as 6'6 265lbs) and speed, and projected him as a possible future great player at the next level. The concerns of course with doing so would be (1) whether he would adjust to the college game speed, athleticism, strength, and (2) whether he would have the personal drive to realize his potential. However, the Rivals people looked at, threw every possible factor together, and came up with placing him at 4-star level.

In hindsight, placing Pierre Paul at 4-star was probably low considering what he has accomplished for the NY Giants after being drafted in the 1st round, but Rivals (and I assume other recruiting sites at the time) were working without the benefit of perfect information so you can't really blame them for it. However, in the year leading up to the draft, JPP flew up some draft boards after his combine despite his middle-level college production against what many considered average competition. The point being that once the NFL scouts got ahold of JPP, they saw what they could turn him into with some coaching, i.e., they saw the measurables and saw great potential.

As with anything, while these forecasts in the form of star ratings are definitely educated decisions taking many things into consideration, they are at the end of the day simply guesses. They are very educated guesses for sure, but guesses nonetheless. There will be an occasional 2 or 3-star guy that will get to college and absolutely blow up, but those are probably few an far between in terms of future NFL success. As long as recruiting websites get way more right than they get wrong (which I assume is the case), then their utility will continue.