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SpartanRocky said...
I agree that a more aggressive, "swarming" D will improve your chances of a forced fumble/recovery, but I still hold that there is a more random factor in it than interceptions. Still, I see a lot of teams that just seem to have the bounces go their way (think Hart's fumble recovery and run for a 1st down in '07) for an entire season, or have the bounces not go their way.
I'm making the argument that your rate of fumble recoveries should go down, but to be fair, UM is in line for a good turnover turnaround; -32 net TOs in RichRod's 3 seasons. So though it seems that through the lens of the first 6 games, UM's fumble recoveries seem 'too good to be true/sustainable', I also have to consider that in the bigger picture this may not be true; these bounces could well go your way the rest of the year and not be out of line with the greater statistical picture.
Certainly something to keep in mind as we watch on Saturday.
Peterklima
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Peterklima said...
Not only would it make up for last year, but it really isn't random.
We are not talking about dropping a ball at the 50 and giving it to the team whose side of the field it lands on. It is not a coin toss. Fumbles definitely depend on how and when the fumble happens.
INTs are more based on performance (or lack thereof by an opponent), but fumbles are not really random.
Michigan State does not and will not run the 3-4 defense.
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SpartanRocky said...
I guess I look at it this way. For a fumble to occur, the offensive player must start out with possession of the ball, then lose possession. For an INT, the ball is already free in the air, already out of possession of a player's hands. What I'm trying to say is that there's no guarantee that an offensive player is going to lose possession of the ball once they have it, but that there will be multiple opportunities for interceptions in any and all games, in the sense that the ball is up for grabs every time its in the air.
Hard hitting and teaching players how to strip the football helps, but I feel that there are a lot more factors that go into a fumble than an INT. Maybe "random" isn't the right word, but rather, "harder to come by consistently".
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SpartanRocky ●
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SpartanRocky said...
Change of gears here (and I'm having fun with the fumble discussion), what happened to your RBs against Northwestern? Did your OL just have a series of brain-farts, or was Northwestern doing something particularly funky on D?
Last year they trotted out a 5-2 under which gave us all sorts of trouble. I only watched your game once, so I'd appreciate any further insight. I saw a lot of minimal gains from Toussaint; far from what he was doing before hand.
UMGoBlue
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SpartanRocky said...
Change of gears here (and I'm having fun with the fumble discussion), what happened to your RBs against Northwestern? Did your OL just have a series of brain-farts, or was Northwestern doing something particularly funky on D?
Last year they trotted out a 5-2 under which gave us all sorts of trouble. I only watched your game once, so I'd appreciate any further insight. I saw a lot of minimal gains from Toussaint; far from what he was doing before hand.
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SpartanRocky said...
Not at all. You guys should be 8-4 if the wheels fall off, and I think I'm going to be eating some crow in regards to my records predictions with xxmgobluexx. At this point I had you guys at 5-1, then a slide to be started by MSU, a W to Purdue, and then you losing out. Regardless of the outcome of our game, I think you beat Purdue and Iowa; the @ IL game I predicted as a trap game L, now it may just end up being an L to a good team on the road.
In reality, I don't think there's a team on your schedule that you can't beat in a single game scenario. I don't think you'll go 12-0, but 9-3 (5-3)? I could definitely see that. Your back 6 is definitely tougher than your first 6 games; 3 home vs. 3 road games, and the only sure W will be IL. As long as your coaches make the adjustments they've been making, and Robinson doesn't get hurt, I have a hard time seeing you losing more than 3 games from here on out, and maybe even that's a stretch. I don't see a sure loss on your schedule.
Preseason I said 7-5, +/- 1 game.
An MSU L to UM this Sat. would make it hard to finish 9-3, but not impossible. Wisky is better than I thought they'd be (and I thought they'd be a top 15 team this year), but Nebraska and Iowa both look vulnerable. I'm much more worried about playing powerful Ds on the road that powerful Os, and both Nebraska and Iowa do not look like vintage NU/Iowa teams defensively. It also depends where those teams are at in their seasons when we play them.
I expect sure Ws over Minny, IU and Northwestern, so I'd say 7-5 is the floor for MSU right now.
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Maize&Blue said...
I am not entirely sure on this. I will say that Toussaint didn't seem to run as hard against NW as he has been the prior couple of weeks. There were a couple of plays where he got tackled by one guy where i felt like he had been running through that tackle.
I do give NW a lot of credit for stopping our running game. I would be more inclined to say it was our RB's if they did not hold Denard to way under his yards per carry average as well. Our O line looked bad but i think NW was selling out to stop the run on early downs. We had a lot of negative or gains for very little on early downs. We did seem to do well on 3rd down running for the game though. We were like 14 for 17 on 3rd down and we were 6 of 8 throwing for 6 first downs, So we were 8 for 9 for first downs running the ball on 3rd down. We also were 1 for 1 on 4th down.
Michigan State does not and will not run the 3-4 defense.
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Big M said...
Good post, basically agree. IF, IF, UM wins Saturday, I think 10-2 is achievable- right now I'm at 9-3.
I did think MSU had a shot at falling to 7-5, but beating OSU and Nebraska not looking that good has me thinking 8-4 is probably the floor.
I felt that in the 5 years or so, MSU and UM would clash with the Legends title on the line.
I honestly didn't expect it to be this season.
Though I predicted 9+ Ws for Iowa and under 9 Ws for both PSU and UM (that's my debate with xxmgobluexx, I have to call him a genius in an open thread if 2 of the 3 happen: Iowa under 9 wins, PSU and UM each 9 or more), I'm more than glad to be wrong about Iowa and PSU, especially if that means Iowa is out of contention for our division and PSU hands Nebraska a 2nd L.
Ultimately, I want MSU to gain national exposure, and having our rivalry mean more and more each year means more exposure for MSU. UM would obviously get the same, but you already have a national name. Would really enjoy if, after this year, our teams continued to meet with no more than 1 loss each, and preferably unbeaten in conference play.
Michigan State does not and will not run the 3-4 defense.
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SpartanRocky said...
Saw that 3rd down stat. Mind-boggling-ly efficient.
Your guys may be a little tired; this will be your 7th straight game and 2nd straight road game. I know MSU wore down a bit last year (10 straight games before a bye), especially Bell, who wasn't used to the load we gave him early on (well, and he bruised both his shoulders in back to back weeks). It's not that someone is hiding a major injury, it's just the bumps and bruises that has a guy losing a quarter or half step, or maybe makes him hesitate to make a cut that he would've made without thinking. This is pure conjecture, because I don't have inside knowledge of the health of your team. I'm just thinking of reasons outside of poor OL play/strong DL play that would cause the drop in running efficiency.
Didn't you guys have an OL injury or other shuffling going on against Minny or something like that?
This post was edited by WillyWolverine on 10/10/2011 at 4:10 PM
WillyWolverine ●
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SpartanRocky said...
Saw that 3rd down stat. Mind-boggling-ly efficient.
Your guys may be a little tired; this will be your 7th straight game and 2nd straight road game. I know MSU wore down a bit last year (10 straight games before a bye), especially Bell, who wasn't used to the load we gave him early on (well, and he bruised both his shoulders in back to back weeks). It's not that someone is hiding a major injury, it's just the bumps and bruises that has a guy losing a quarter or half step, or maybe makes him hesitate to make a cut that he would've made without thinking. This is pure conjecture, because I don't have inside knowledge of the health of your team. I'm just thinking of reasons outside of poor OL play/strong DL play that would cause the drop in running efficiency.
Didn't you guys have an OL injury or other shuffling going on against Minny or something like that?
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Hoffelcopter said...
We had our LG (Ricky Barnum) go out with an injury, don't know exactly what, but it wasn't serious. RS. Soph. Michael Schofield took his place (who has played well in his place), that is the entirety of our OL problems.
Michigan State does not and will not run the 3-4 defense.
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Joester16 said...
Yup. Right now all I'm thinking about is the Lions game.
After tonight it will be UM/MSU mode.
I live in Chicago, but I'm 100% a Lions fan. Hosting a MNF party of mostly Bears fans, who insist that they're going to win. Their big plan? Put Julius Peppers out wide on Megatron if the Lions are at the 5 yardline or closer.
yea, we owe these SOBs for that "complete the catch" game from last year. Go Lions!
Michigan State does not and will not run the 3-4 defense.
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SpartanRocky said...
I live in Chicago, but I'm 100% a Lions fan. Hosting a MNF party of mostly Bears fans, who insist that they're going to win. Their big plan? Put Julius Peppers out wide on Megatron if the Lions are at the 5 yardline or closer.
yea, we owe these SOBs for that "complete the catch" game from last year. Go Lions!
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buttesnake ●
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SpartanRocky said...
I live in Chicago, but I'm 100% a Lions fan. Hosting a MNF party of mostly Bears fans, who insist that they're going to win. Their big plan? Put Julius Peppers out wide on Megatron if the Lions are at the 5 yardline or closer.
yea, we owe these SOBs for that "complete the catch" game from last year. Go Lions!
Please do that.
I'm just hoping Peppers doesn't hurt Stafford again tonight.
But, to be honest, Ford Field is going to be jumping tonight. Crowd is going to be loud and it's going to be something us fans have never experienced ever.
And I just think the Lions are going to come out and play lights out and dominate the Bears.
I hope I'm right.
11 National Titles | 42 Conference Titles | 3 Heisman Winners | 78 All-Americans | 37 College Hall of Fame Members
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The Official Michigan, MSU, and 1 Random Guy from Arky Thread