The Blue Board

The line blows. I dont see how anything changes that.

What I'm trying to say with the forecast it seems like each team will have to depend on a running game.

I'd give UM that advantage.

i came here ready to hype and pump,

but then i left having to take a big dump.

Too be fair, Cousins is throwing in the same wind, but, umm, I guess I see where you are going.

One of the biggest critiques I have heard about Cousins from state fans, sports analysts and broadcasters is that his biggest drawback is his arm strength. They all talk about how he is an accurate passer and game manager, but I hear people frequently say his arm strength is average at best.

Denard is not an accurate passer, especially compared to Cousins, but he has a much stronger arm. There was a game (Minnessota or SDSU) where he threw the ball off his back foot and it was in the air for 55-60 yards... no exaggeration. He has great arm strength but isn't a polished passer, and thus, not very accurate.

Saban beat UM his first year. Ok, that's 16 years ago, but hardly "decades".

And wasn't last year's game Denard's 6th start?

But hey, at least you were right Shiu the trend of MSU winning the last 3.

Wait... what?

Why do you think arm strength won't be a factor if there are 30mph winds? That's when it's one of the biggest factors because you can use your arm strength on shorter passes to negate the effect the wind has. If you don't have the arm strength to do that than the wind can end up affecting the pass and it's accuracy.

I just don't follow the logic in thinking because a game has a lot of wind, that Denard's arm strength isn't going to be put to use. The complete opposite is what I come up with actually.

Within 10 yards both QBs are similarly accurate. Denard has the bigger arm, but Kirk is more accurate the longer the pass.

The wind negates the Cousins deep ball and the Denard deep ball. I think Cousins throws a better deep ball. The short stuff shouldn't be affected too much and they are similar in those passes anyway.

So, you would think the wind negates an advantage of the Spartans (an accurate vertical game).

I think it will have more effect on kicks anyway. It will cause some returns off short kicks, bobbled balls, field goal accuracy. I am not sure who that benefits.

Ahh, the Michelle Tanner offense, aka the "Full House".

Cousins arm strength is questionable? He's not Matt Stafford, but he's not a noodle-arm guy. He threw an "official" 33 yard pass to Cunningham, but he was about 3 yards behind the line of scrimmage when he threw it, and it was towards the back of the endzone. Seemed to have more than enough strength and accuracy to complete a 40+ yard pass down field in less than ideal conditions (rainy day as well).

Arm strength without accuracy is pretty much meaningless. Who cares if he can throw the ball 60 yards if it's 6 yards away from the nearest receiver, or worse, half a yard away from a defender.

The wet grass favors a North-South run game, and a wet turf, but no rain, can really benefit a short passing game (DBs get caught when trying to break on a ball, WR knows the route and should make fewer "jerky" movements that lead to slips/stumbles).

On kicks, it could be a major factor. Muma for MSU has gotten it into the endzone on kick-offs, but usually kicks to about the 6 yardline. If that becomes the 12 yardline, UM's mediocre Kick Return game could still give them possession at the 30 (averaging 18.5 yards/return). That's solid field position.

On punts . . . who knows? None of the punters have been booming them, though I think Sadler's rugby style (which he hasn't done the entire year, for those UM fans that just watched our game vs. tOSU) will be less impacted by any wind. That's because the ball doesn't go up in the air as high, where the wind can push it back. That could also set up some punt returns for UofM, but who knows?

The effect of FG accuracy probably favors Michigan. Though Gibbons and Conroy both have hit on 2/3 of their kicks (4/6 for Gibbons and 6/9 for Conroy), Conroy definitely has the bigger leg (5/6 beyond 40 yards, 2/3 from 50+). Bad weather conditions could bring his distance down so that instead of being automatic from say 45, he's only good from 38 this game. That puts him in Gibbons ballpark, and would put the onus on the MSU offense to move the ball to at least the 23 vs. the 30 in order to feel comfortable about points.

If the wind is as strong as predicted, I wouldn't be surprised to see both teams try to pick up some 4th and 1s and 4th and 2s from the 30 yardline in.