The Blue Board

Just from watching the teams play, I would consider it an upset. Plus it's a home game for you, right? You've lost very close games to us and OSU and Nebraska. Your offense has struggled, but your defense is way better than NW's. Assuming we beat NW, you should be favored.

What is MSU's home record this year?

They will put up 10-15 points against us because we have one of the best if not the best defense in the big ten.

Well, it's not something that's really measured by "stats".

I base my predictions based on the match-ups and stats. I try to go more with the "eye-test" match-ups than just pure stats, though later in the season I feel that stats can give you some very useful information. I look a lot at the different styles of play; teams with mobile QBs, for instance, do much better on the ground vs. MSU than teams that have a strong running game based mostly on the RBs. In that respect, if Team A and Team B both average 220 yards/game on the ground at 5.2 YPC for the team, but Team A has a running QB and Team B does not, I'd give Team A a much better chance of having success on the ground vs. MSU than Team B.

As far as a group being "due", well, that depends a lot on who the group is. It's hard for me to declare a unit that's struggled in the past and this year suddenly due to to have a good game; MSU's OL, for instance, has done nothing to earn a "hey, they should put it together this game" distinction until they finally showed they could be decent vs. Nebraska (over 200 yards on the ground, 0 sacks given up, only 4 TFL yielded for the game).

If a group has had a series of good games, then a bad one or two, I'll be more likely to say they're due for a "bounce back" game. Think of MSU's WRs last year; Cunningham gets blanketed by Nebraska and State throws for just 86 yards in that game. That won't sour me on the unit instantly, because they had shown they could be quite good.

SR Day matters more than homecoming, but fighting for bowl eligibility or a CCG berth is more important. For instance, MSU very much wants Minny to chalk up one more win prior to State's game @Minny; even though it's Minny's SR day, if they were also fighting for bowl eligibility on that day it would be much harder to win.

All in all, proven talent matters more than the emotional aspects, and I give edges to the team with the better relative defensive match-up and the home team. That's why I predicted MSU to beat Iowa, Neb and tOSU, and lose to UM and Wisconsin. Obviously my prognosticating hasn't been that great, though my margins of victory have been very close to reality .*

*Looking for consolation where ever I can find it

I'd love for Sanchez to stick around. He shaped up to be a pretty solid starter towards eoy and the playoffs. I think he's risky for that type of money though. I would want to see one solid year of good numbers before shelling out that type of cash.

IMO Tigers need relievers. You look at SF they had Lincecum and Romo who were just about a lock to give the Giants 3 shut out innings almost every game in the playoffs. That turns it into a 6 inning game and with their starting pitchers good luck. With our starters if you could have that type of lock down at the end of the game I think the Tigers would have a really good shot at winning the series.

Why would his presence effect MSU any different than it does UConn?

Pulling for Sparty tonight (must be getting soft in my old age). Don't go embarrassing the B10 now.

Good luck with Slipery Rock! Are they better or worse than Ohio?

Does it feel that way when he officiates or is there stats that shows he specifically blows the whistle against MSU more often?

Fwiw, for being told by MSU fans that Michigan fans blame the refs for everything, I have seen a crapload of Spartans doing just that this year.

Sounds like MSU is playing ugly early right now.

Michigan loading up in the preseason this year? Any top 30 teams?

Wow uconn is faaaast

Thats pretty heavy for Michigan actually isn't it? I know you're forced to play NC state, but props for the other two powerhouses. You guys are stepping up. Much impressed.