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ErnieMcCracken said...
Look- I dont get caught up in this recruiting game la-la land. If you thought that place was rocking when ND was stepping on you I guess you did not watch the game. Instead you will take the word of some recruiting service who pumps your ass for money. There is a reason I dont pay for that crap. My advice, is to develop your opinion and basis of judgement and do not take someone else's word for your own beliefs. The place was loud at the end but not when ND was marching up and down the field at will in the first half.
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Ducksworth said...
I completely agree. I think football has the least HF advantage out of any sport, because the fans are farther away from the play. In hockey and basketball, the crowds are smaller, but they're very close and the cheers/heckles are much easier to hear.
But you're right that it's impossible to tell who it helps more. Like for the ND/MSU game, it's easy to say that ND will be helped by their home crowd, but I would argue that the crowd would pump MSU up more because they just want to shut the fans up. I know when I was playing hockey, I'd get almost more pumped on the road because it's just so much fun to be the hated team and shut the crowd up.
This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by steveschneider on 9/13/2011 at 6:05 PM
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steveschneider said...
I disagree, I think the crowd has a huge impact. In fact football is one of the few sports I can think of that can have a direct impact on the game. If the crowd noise is loud enough where the QB can't get his snap off or call an audible they have to burn a TO.
Also, there has to be a reason why the defense always jack their arms up for crowd noise on third downs.
The noise at home gives you adrenalin, it's positive reinforcement and probably helps with fatigue levels. I've run marathon races before where you get on a street with a crowd cheering you on it energizes you.
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Ducksworth said...
I never said the crowd has no impact. Read the post. I said it has less of an impact than it does in basketball or hockey, where the crowds are louder. I do think that the crowd matters, obviously. Read my second post in response to Rocky. It can be an advantage for the away team almost as much as the home team in some situations
Eagles notebook: Crowd noise affects offensive line early - pressofAtlanticCity.com: Sports
ST. LOUIS - The noise inside the Edward Jones Dome on Sunday hurt the Philadelphia Eagles' offensive line more than the St. Louis Rams' defense.
www.pressofatlanticcity.com steveschneider
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steveschneider said...
Sorry, I wasn't being clear. I meant I disagree I think in football the crowd has more of an impact than in basketball or hockey. Football is the only sport I can think of where the crowd can impact the game by forcing a QB to chew up a timeout. I've also seen crowds cause delay of games.
Look at this...
http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/sports/eagles-notebook-crowd-noise-affects-offensive-line-early/article_dca59191-6432-54a6-b78b-bbc2e472953c.html
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Ducksworth said...
Crowds can do that in all sports, though. The student section at Yost has made several players so angry that they take unnecessary roughness penalties (couple games where players even threw sticks into the stands).
Although you have a good point. I guess the real message is that any GOOD crowd can affect the game. There are some pretty lousy crowds, quiet as a mouse. A good crowd in hockey, football, or basketball can really help their team
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steveschneider said...
Just read this on Wikipedia and thought it was interesting so I'm posting here...
"The New York Giants allegedly asked the NFL to intervene in 2006 when they played the Seattle Seahawks. In their 2005 matchup at Qwest Field, the Giants incurred 11 false start penalties due to the crowd noise. For the 2006 rematch between the two teams, the NFL sent observers to verify that the Seahawks were not artificially enhancing the noise level.[15] Qwest Field in Seattle has been architecturally designed to be the loudest stadium in the NFL. This has caused 2.83 false starts per game, which is the highest in the NFL since 2005. The Decibel level at Qwest Field is a whopping 112 dB, only 18 dB below the roar of a Boeing 747.[19]"
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Bump, because the MSU/Notre Dame thread became an MSU/UM "discussion". Again.
Quick updates:
MSU down 3 OL from the start of the season, making 7 OL injuries since Spring '11 for the Spartans.
MSU lost 31-13 against Notre Dame as the OL looked generally inept and the play-calling was highly suspect. Defense performed fairly well in light of circumstances
UM is 3-0 for the 3rd straight year, ranked in both polls.
UM still searching for a true #1 RB, as Vincent Smith seems to have the nod against SDSU. Shoelaces is by far the leading rusher after carrying the ball 26 times against Eastern Michigan.
UM should get Brandon Herron and Cam Gordon back from injury soon.
Michigan State does not and will not run the 3-4 defense.
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xxmgobluexx said...
How do you see the Michigan/MSU game going after seeing 25% of the games, Rocky. I thought you had the game as an almost guarenteed win for MSU before the season.
I thought it was a tossup before the season and still see it that way.
This post was edited by SpartanRocky on 9/21/2011 at 1:18 PM
Michigan State does not and will not run the 3-4 defense.
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SpartanRocky said...
If MSU's secondary continues its strong play, I still put the game as an almost guaranteed MSU win. Dennard has struggled passing in the new system, which I believe several UM fans shouted me down for saying earlier this year, and UM still doesn't have an established running game. Combine that with a pass D that held Notre Dame to under half the yards passing that they were averaging on the year, and I think MSU can really contain the UM offense.
For all of MSU's OL woes, UM's DL hasn't had the impact this season that many thought it would, and I question their ability to take advantage of that weakness for MSU. From what I've seen, e only major difference in UM defense's is aggression; the fundamentals are a little better, but forcing TOs via aggressive blitzes has been the only major improvement from last season. That said, I do think aggressive blitz packages will lead to a couple big plays for UM's D, but having the bye (and the game being at home), should allow for MSU to plan accordingly; those plays leave rather large coverage gaps.
It should be a good game, but I think MSU wins. I don't think UM has the front 7 to take advantage of MSU's biggest weakness, while MSU's pass D matches up with your offense's biggest weakness. That bye really helps the Spartans a lot, especially with the OL injuries.
This post was edited by Peterklima on 9/21/2011 at 1:44 PM
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Peterklima said...
How can you say UM doesn't have an established running game?
I think they do and the stats back that up. The lack of experiences (senior) LBs at MSU will likely be exposed by an elite running QB.
And, your conclusions about the MSU pass defense are based on the ND performance are based on keeping them to half of the yards they averaged in the first two games. Did it occur to you that ND threw the ball substantially less against MSU because they were winning handily and didn't need to throw downfield? Plus, ND's pass yards against MSU included some big negative pass completions.
I don't think DRob will torch the MSU secondary, but calling the MSU secondary "strong" is a real stretch given the data to this point. That, plus UM's running game and UM will score on MSU.
As for your analysis of the Michigan D line, the problem for UM there has been with respect to the run game. They were pressuring WMU and EMU QBs all day. The blitzes work great. I don't think MSU has an Oline that is better than MAC-level and I don't think an extra week is going to give them the experience to pick up different blitz packages (and any variations thrown in by UM).
This post was edited by SpartanRocky on 9/21/2011 at 2:38 PM
Michigan State does not and will not run the 3-4 defense.
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SpartanRocky said...
1) UM does not have an established running game because you have no true threat at RB. As great as Robinson is, asking him to shoulder the load will not work come Big 10 season; look at last year. Your stats include Robinson's rushing totals, which are reduced compared to where they were last year, to go along with his decreased accuracy as a passer. Without a solid running back (or two) to take the pressure off, UM's offense becomes the Dennard Robinson show for the 2nd year in a row. I think that's been proven to be not sustainable in Big 10 play.
2) The pass defense isn't just about total yards; they held ND to 6.2 yards/attempt, a far cry from the over 8 yards/attempt they were averaging going into the game. I do accept that ND reduced their offensive production once the game was over, but they were held to 80 total yards in the 2nd half, including either 2 or 8 yards rushing (was having problems figuring which # it is). For a team trying to "kill clock", it would seem that they were ineffective.
Additionally, what "big negative pass completions" are you referring to? I don't recall a ND receiver being tackled for a 10 yard loss or something. Additionally sacks are deducted from the rushing total in college football, not the passing total, so I have no idea where you pulled that one from. It's very very rare in college football to have a pass play go for negative yards, and even a behind the line screen pass isn't going to lose more than a yard or two. MSU's DBs drew praise for their coverage of Floyd, who was held to half his average catches.
3) You're talking a lot about data, but I wonder what data you're looking at regarding MSU's pass D. Going purely on stats, MSU's passing defense is 3rd nationally in yards and 15th nationally in pass efficiency D, allowing a total of 2 passing TDs in 3 games. That's after facing the #10 passing offense in the country. If that isn't considered "strong" data, then I don't know what is.
If you'd like to make an argument that MSU hasn't faced a lot of tough competition, thus skewing their pass D #s, then we could have a discussion. But to say "the data" doesn't back up a statement that MSU's secondary is strong, when the actual #s prove the opposite point makes you look very uninformed. And further to my point, especially in terms of efficiency, it's hard to argue that MSU's pass D is not strong when they took the #10 passing O in the country and dropped it to #27 in one week.
4) Somehow you conclude that UM will score on MSU based on the fact that Robinson will NOT torch MSU's secondary and the fact that UM can (in your opinion) run the football. That doesn't allow for the fact that UM's D should allow MSU to score as well, as MSU has a much stronger passing offense at this point.
5) Your blitzes may have worked well in your eyes, but let's have a look at the data. UM has produced a total of 1.5 sacks in 3 games and a total of 12 TFL in 3 games (111th and 102nd nationally, respectively).
I agree that pressures/hurries can be just as good in forcing bad throws, but UM still ranks 92nd in passing efficiency D, allowing 2/3 of passes against you to be completed at a 7.64 YPA rate. Considering anything over 7 YPA is considered "good", UM's pass D could be considered "bad" at this point Keep in mind that this is after facing the weakest teams on your schedule.
Looking at MSU, having a veteran QB at home, with an extra week to prepare for UM should worry you.
In terms of all the different blitz packages, Mattison's strategy reminds me quite a bit of Pat Narduzzi's in 2009. He knew our coverage was not very good, so blitzed heavily, with the idea that if MSU sat in coverage they'd be picked apart anyways, so might as well try to force a TO, get a sack or force a bad throw. I think we're seeing something very similar play out with UM, and the data appears to be backing it up. Only difference is that your blitzes don't appear to actually be getting home, as indicated by low # of sacks, TFL and a high completion %/YPA and poor passing efficiency D #s.
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Due51 said...
Amazing what playing an FAU and YSU, along with defending against team nursing a 2TD lead will do for your defensive statistics.
Let's face it, State's patch OLine made up of converted kickers and punters will be able to keep Michigan's DL at bay, thanks in part to the magical bye week prior to the game.
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Due51 said...
Amazing what playing an FAU and YSU, along with defending against team nursing a 2TD lead will do for your defensive statistics.
Let's face it, State's patch OLine made up of converted kickers and punters will be able to keep Michigan's DL at bay, thanks in part to the magical bye week prior to the game.
Michigan State does not and will not run the 3-4 defense.
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SpartanRocky said...
Just the same way Dennard Robinson's innovative "shot-put passing" will no doubt tear up Michigan State's over-rated secondary.
FWIW, ND had under 100 yards passing at halftime, and finished with 160ish. I know they were "nursing a 2 TD lead", but it's not like they threw for 160 yards in the first half and did nothing in the 2nd. It's not as though ND was up 35-0 at halftime.
Are you really discounting the benefit of having a bye week given MSU's injuries and overall youth on the OL thus far this year? And what, pray tell, about your DL makes it so formidable thus far? UM has played a schedule that's about the same as MSU's, so what does that say about your defensive statistics? MSU's are better all around, despite having to play on the road at least once. I realize that early season stats are skewed due to largely poor competition, but when you have 2 relatively equal schedules you can at least point out the relative differences between them.
Need I add that UM's total defensive statistics have been further aided by the fact that you're missing an entire quarters worth of game-time due to the lightening strikes? Those totals, particularly the passing defense ones, are no doubt lower than they should be.
MSU isn't a very good football program.. takes year of consistent winning to get to that level. - copemoney 1/22/13
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The Official Michigan, MSU, and 1 Random Guy from Arky Thread