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The Official Michigan, MSU, and 1 Random Guy from Arky Thread

  • Oh look. Two responses about history ignoring the fact that their current team is complete trash.

    Enjoy getting trashed by ND, SDSU, MSU, OSU, Nebraska, Iowa, PSU, etc...

    ArtieLuvPancake

  • ArtieLuvPancake said...

    Oh look. Two responses about history ignoring the fact that their current team is complete trash.

    Enjoy getting trashed by ND, SDSU, MSU, OSU, Nebraska, Iowa, PSU, etc...

    Current team has the same winning season streak as the spartys. Lol, how quickly sparty forgets even recent memories.

    xxmgobluexx

  • ArtieLuvPancake said...

    Oh look. Two responses about history ignoring the fact that their current team is complete trash.

    Enjoy getting trashed by ND, SDSU, MSU, OSU, Nebraska, Iowa, PSU, etc...

    I highly doubt UM loses to SDSU this season. Hoke knows that team inside and out.

    The rest of those games could all be Ls, except for the fact that they don't play PSU, they're @ IL instead. They got off easy, missing both Wisky and PSU, and getting terrible Purdue and tZooker.

    ND is at UM, but I think it's safe to say ND is a year ahead in terms of rebuilding. Tough game for UM. Really leaning towards a W for UM, but they have won 2 straight in dramatic fashion.

    SDSU: It'll be tough due to the familiarity, but if UM loses this one, they could miss a bowl this year. And I think they make a bowl.

    MSU, Nebraska: these are Ls

    @IL: Serious trap game. IL has more raw talent than I thought, and I really like Petrino and Koenig as coordinators. Depends on where the teams are at this point in the year, really, this a toss-up

    @ Iowa: very very tough venue. Likely L

    @ Northwestern: Put it in the W category right now, but Persa can beat just about any team in the conference if they're not careful. If he's healthy. Which I'm not sure about yet.

    tOSU: Really really dependsd on what happens with the fallout and how the team adapts. If tOSU is sitting at 9-2, with a W needed to send it to the championship game, then the Scarlet and Gray are likely going to win. If they're 7-4 or worse, with nothing to play for really? I could see an upset. Still, chances are probably 25% or less right now.

    So I see 4 Ls: MSU, Neb, Iowa, and tOSU, 2 toss-ups: IL and ND, with Northwestern possibly being in that category.

    I've predicted 7-5 for UM and I'm sticking with it this season.

    Michigan State does not and will not run the 3-4 defense.

    SpartanRocky

  • ArtieLuvPancake said...

    Oh look. Two responses about history ignoring the fact that their current team is complete trash.

    Enjoy getting trashed by ND, SDSU, MSU, OSU, Nebraska, Iowa, PSU, etc...

    Complete trash?

    That sounds more like an irrational thought from someone who just hates rather than an informed opinion. What part, specifically, is complete trash?

    The QB--2010 Offensive Player of the Year? Not really trash. He's a gifted athlete.
    The OL--Lot of returning starters on that line. More than Sparty as a matter of fact.
    RB--perhaps
    WR--perhaps
    DL--2 returning starters which is the same as Sparty
    ILB--one returning starter which is more than Sparty
    OLB--2 returning starters in Roh and Gordon while State is moving an OLB inside (if I heard RockySpartan correctly). Gordon and Jones started more games as a tandem than any two in the history of the school. Why am I the only one who sees that as a glaring concern?
    DB--returning starters but perhaps trash.

    So complete? Nah.

    signature image signature image signature image

    MSU isn't a very good football program.. takes year of consistent winning to get to that level. - copemoney 1/22/13

    Due51

  • SpartanRocky said...

    I highly doubt UM loses to SDSU this season. Hoke knows that team inside and out.

    The rest of those games could all be Ls, except for the fact that they don't play PSU, they're @ IL instead. They got off easy, missing both Wisky and PSU, and getting terrible Purdue and tZooker.

    ND is at UM, but I think it's safe to say ND is a year ahead in terms of rebuilding. Tough game for UM. Really leaning towards a W for UM, but they have won 2 straight in dramatic fashion.

    SDSU: It'll be tough due to the familiarity, but if UM loses this one, they could miss a bowl this year. And I think they make a bowl.

    MSU, Nebraska: these are Ls

    @IL: Serious trap game. IL has more raw talent than I thought, and I really like Petrino and Koenig as coordinators. Depends on where the teams are at this point in the year, really, this a toss-up

    @ Iowa: very very tough venue. Likely L

    @ Northwestern: Put it in the W category right now, but Persa can beat just about any team in the conference if they're not careful. If he's healthy. Which I'm not sure about yet.

    tOSU: Really really dependsd on what happens with the fallout and how the team adapts. If tOSU is sitting at 9-2, with a W needed to send it to the championship game, then the Scarlet and Gray are likely going to win. If they're 7-4 or worse, with nothing to play for really? I could see an upset. Still, chances are probably 25% or less right now.

    So I see 4 Ls: MSU, Neb, Iowa, and tOSU, 2 toss-ups: IL and ND, with Northwestern possibly being in that category.

    I've predicted 7-5 for UM and I'm sticking with it this season.

    That's a completely reasonable prediction. All of which might happen. I have a worst case scenario season for us at 6-6, and I'm predicting an 8-4 season.

    signature image signature image signature image

    Hoffelcopter

  • Due51 said...

    Complete trash?

    That sounds more like an irrational thought from someone who just hates rather than an informed opinion. What part, specifically, is complete trash?

    The QB--2010 Offensive Player of the Year? Not really trash. He's a gifted athlete. The OL--Lot of returning starters on that line. More than Sparty as a matter of fact. RB--perhaps WR--perhaps DL--2 returning starters which is the same as Sparty ILB--one returning starter which is more than Sparty OLB--2 returning starters in Roh and Gordon while State is moving an OLB inside (if I heard RockySpartan correctly). Gordon and Jones started more games as a tandem than any two in the history of the school. Why am I the only one who sees that as a glaring concern? DB--returning starters but perhaps trash.

    So complete? Nah.

    Few corrections:

    1) I think Roundtree is a great WR. With Stonum gone, that throws that unit into the ? territory. Hemingway could make a difference, but he really hasn't thus far, and I'm trying not to project TOO much in these. I think Koger will have his best year at TE, but behind him is a lot of ?? Still, no way would I call this unit "trash"

    2) We return 3 DL starters, and Anthony Rashad White started multiple games last year (due to injuries to Pickelman and Treadwell) . . . . maybe put that at 2.5 starters returning because he definitely didn't start the whole year. I want to see how your DL adapts to going back to the 4-3, particulary for Martin.

    3) MSU's LBs: We're moving Chris Norman from the STAR (our "WILL) to the SAM, so we're moving an OLB to OLB. ILB is Bullough, who backed up Jones last year; he's a prototypical Big 10 MIKE (6'3 240). The new STAR is Denicos Allen, who saw most of his action last year on special teams (he's only a RS SOph, so that's not surprising). This area isn't a major concern because Bullough and Allen had great springs, along with Tyquan Hammock, who can play the SAM or the MIKE. Feel that we have 4 LBs that can start, with Jeremy Gainer and Steve Gardiner being solid back-ups. Still, to be fair and not project, Bullough has 20 tackles, 1 TFL and 1 INT in his career and Allen has 16 tackles and a blocked punt. It's an area to watch for us, no doubt, but if there's one area that MSU feels that it can "reload" at outside the skill positions, it's LB.

    I still think there are more ? about UM's LBs than MSU's. I'd say Norman is a more known quantity than Demons, and moving Cam Gordon to the OLB isn't a great thing, considering his performance last year. Jake Ryan I hear great things about, but he has seen less PT that Allen or Bullough.

    4) Your DBs . . . yea, I think I saw something that said your DBs have a combined 0 career INTs. Not great.

    This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by SpartanRocky on 6/14/2011 at 11:35 AM

    Michigan State does not and will not run the 3-4 defense.

    SpartanRocky

  • Hoffelcopter said...

    That's a completely reasonable prediction. All of which might happen. I have a worst case scenario season for us at 6-6, and I'm predicting an 8-4 season.

    I could see it breaking either to 6-6 or 8-4. Anything better or worse would really surpise me. I really see MSU, Neb, @Iowa and tOSU as your toughest games; you'll have to win one to get above 8 Ws.

    One big thing could be if Floyd is suspended for your game against ND. I know I'll feel a lot better about ND if he's not on the field.

    Michigan State does not and will not run the 3-4 defense.

    SpartanRocky

  • ArtieLuvPancake said...

    Oh look. Two responses about history ignoring the fact that their current team is complete trash.

    Enjoy getting trashed by ND, SDSU, MSU, OSU, Nebraska, Iowa, PSU, etc...

    It seems every time the conversation gets levelheaded and civil, a Spartan with an inferiority complex likes this has to chime in and ruin it. SpartanRocky, I don't know how you put up with it, but thanks for rational discussion instead of unsupported ornery gibberish.

    signature image

    KRGoBlue

  • SpartanRocky said...

    I hear you on YPC, but total rush yardage is deceving then for the same reasons. I don't know of a regulary kept statistic that measures just designed running plays from scrimmage, but that'd be the best measure.

    YPA (yards per attempt) against is a solid measure of pass D; if a guy throws for 250 yards, but it takes him 50 throws, then you're probably doing pretty well (5 YPA); in fact the lowest YPA in the nation last year was TCU at 5.18. Looks like 6.25 and under is top 20 or so. For reference, MSU's YPA against: was 6.78 and UM's was 8.32.

    The TD to INT ratio is a pretty solid measure, not sure what your problem is with it. The top 17 pass efficiency Ds had either a 1:1 TD to INT ratio or better and 21 of the top 25 did. Maybe you'd prefer the whole pass efficiency D? +

    FWIW, 26 ppg puts you at 60th in the nation and 22 puts you at 35th. That's a pretty big range.

    I've seen locations remove sack yardage from the equation to get a better idea of YPC and total rush yards. I'm also a much much bigger fan of YPA when measuring a pass D than almost any other statistic. I think the average amount of yards a team gets every time they throw the ball against you is a very good indicator as to how good the teams pass defense is.

    As for my issue of TD:INT Ratio, simply far too much variance for my taste. I certain feel it's a statistic that can be used on conjunction with other statistics to help show how good or bad a pass D is. But I just don't see using it as a stand-alone stat to show how good or bad a pass defense was.

    All that being said, I would opt for Pass Efficiency D over any other stat.

    This post was edited by theyellow_dup on 6/14/2011 at 11:43 AM

    theyellow_dup

  • Well since we're predicting our opponents record, I guess I'll chime in with my take on State's upcoming season:
    Youngstown St.- W
    FAU - W
    at ND - L
    CMU - W. Dan Enos can recruit but the dude appears to be over his head.
    at OSU - L but it depends. If they lose their starting RB, WR, and guys on defense, then I'll switch to a W
    Michigan - L. Homer or not, I'll never concede this game as long as RichRod isn't the head coach and Greg Robinson isn't living inside the borders of Michigan
    Wisconsin - L. This won't be the Badger's first conference road game this year so they won't choke. (they've lost their first conference road game in something like 9 of the last 10 years)
    at Nebraska- L
    Minnesota - W
    at Iowa - W
    Indiana - W
    at Northwestern - L, no W, no L, no W. Honestly, it's a crap shoot. MSU is 8-7 in the MD era in conference road games.

    That's 7-5, which I think is the low end of reality. On the high side, 9-3 switching the Michigan and Ohio State games to Ws. I equate MSU 2010/11 to Iowa 2009/10.

    signature image signature image signature image

    MSU isn't a very good football program.. takes year of consistent winning to get to that level. - copemoney 1/22/13

    Due51

  • I think both teams go 8-4 next year. Since we're predicting opponents records, I'll say that State's 4 losses come to ND, Wisconsin, Nebraska, and one of Michigan/Iowa/NW

    This post was edited by balashi5032 on 6/14/2011 at 12:54 PM

    signature image signature image signature image

    balashi5032

  • Due51 said...

    Well since we're predicting our opponents record, I guess I'll chime in with my take on State's upcoming season: Youngstown St.- W FAU - W at ND - L CMU - W. Dan Enos can recruit but the dude appears to be over his head. at OSU - L but it depends. If they lose their starting RB, WR, and guys on defense, then I'll switch to a W Michigan - L. Homer or not, I'll never concede this game as long as RichRod isn't the head coach and Greg Robinson isn't living inside the borders of Michigan Wisconsin - L. This won't be the Badger's first conference road game this year so they won't choke. (they've lost their first conference road game in something like 9 of the last 10 years) at Nebraska- L Minnesota - W at Iowa - W Indiana - W at Northwestern - L, no W, no L, no W. Honestly, it's a crap shoot. MSU is 8-7 in the MD era in conference road games.

    That's 7-5, which I think is the low end of reality. On the high side, 9-3 switching the Michigan and Ohio State games to Ws. I equate MSU 2010/11 to Iowa 2009/10.

    Check again. We are Wisconsin's first conference road game biggrin. I had to double check, but they don't leave home until our game on Oct. 22; first 3 weeks are Nebraska, Bye, Indiana. That's a W for MSU.

    And since you admit to being a homer and we all know there's no way UM beats MSU this year . . . .yea, that means your real prediction for MSU is 9-3, or 10-2 if we get tOSU. lol

    The only game I'm willing to concede as a 90% sure loss is @ Nebraska. @ND? Not a chance that I put that as an auto-loss, it's a toss-up. MSU has more Ws @ ND than any other program in history; if there's one "tough" road venue that isn't so tough for MSU, it's @ND.

    This post was edited by SpartanRocky on 6/14/2011 at 1:03 PM

    Michigan State does not and will not run the 3-4 defense.

    SpartanRocky

  • SpartanRocky said...

    Check again. We are Wisconsin's first conference road game biggrin. I had to double check, but they don't leave home until our game on Oct. 22; first 3 weeks are Nebraska, Bye, Indiana. That's a W for MSU.

    And since you admit to being a homer and we all know there's no way UM beats MSU this year . . . .yea, that means your real prediction for MSU is 9-3, or 10-2 if we get tOSU. lol

    The only game I'm willing to concede as a 90% sure loss is @ Nebraska. @ND? Not a chance that I put that as an auto-loss, it's a toss-up. MSU has more Ws @ ND than any other program in history; if there's one "tough" road venue that isn't so tough for MSU, it's @ND.

    Funny how two people can look at the exact same data and come up with completely different conclusions.

    I'll fly a Spartan flag at my house for a week if they win 10 REGULAR SEASON games this year.

    Edited for: duh, it's two not to

    This post was edited by Due51 on 6/14/2011 at 1:24 PM

    signature image signature image signature image

    MSU isn't a very good football program.. takes year of consistent winning to get to that level. - copemoney 1/22/13

    Due51

  • Due51 said...

    Funny how two people can look at the exact same data and come up with completely different conclusions.

    I'll fly a Spartan flag at my house for a week if they win 10 REGULAR SEASON games this year.

    Edited for: duh, it's two not to

    I'll fly a UM flag from my house if you guys do the same.

    Really, MSU's schedule looks like this to me:

    Sure Loss: Neb

    Toss-ups: @ND, @tOSU, @Iowa, Wisconsin

    Better than 75% Ws: Youngstown St., CMU, FAU, IU, Minny, Michigan, @ Northwestern

    Say we win 50% of our toss-ups and all our should wins, gives us a 9-3 record, which is my prediction for the year.

    Michigan State does not and will not run the 3-4 defense.

    SpartanRocky

  • SpartanRocky said...

    I'll fly a UM flag from my house if you guys do the same.

    I didn't say we'd win 10 games though.

    signature image signature image signature image

    MSU isn't a very good football program.. takes year of consistent winning to get to that level. - copemoney 1/22/13

    Due51

  • Due51 said...

    I didn't say we'd win 10 games though.

    I know biggrin

    Michigan State does not and will not run the 3-4 defense.

    SpartanRocky

  • Due51 said...

    I didn't say we'd win 10 games though.

    I did.

    xxmgobluexx

  • OK Common recruits ~ UofM and MSU, Dwayne Stanford and Adolphus Washington, will be visiting Michigan this week. HUGE visit. Not sure how realistic their dream of going to the same school is, but I think we have a legitimate shot here for both. OSU was the obvious destination, but who knows anymore. looks like OSu will miss out on Jaquay, which may make them turn their focus back to Stanford.

    Lets get some of that Hoke-us Pocus and land these 2.

    This post was edited by RicoX19 on 6/14/2011 at 3:30 PM

    signature image signature image signature image

    RicoX19

  • Meeechigan said...

    OK Common recruits ~ UofM and MSU, Dwayne Stanford and Adolphus Washington, will be visiting Michigan this week. HUGE visit. Not sure how realistic their dream of going to the same school is, but I think we have a legitimate shot here for both. OSU was the obvious destination, but who knows anymore. looks like OSu will miss out on Jaquay, which may make them turn their focus back to Stanford.

    Lets get some of that Hoke-us Pocus and land these 2.

    How many more spots do you guys have? It will be very interesting to see how it all comes together in the end since it looks like you guys might run out of spots.

    How many WR are you guys planning to take?

    spartanstate

  • SpartanRocky said...

    Better than 75% Ws: Youngstown St., CMU, FAU, IU, Minny, Michigan, @ Northwestern

    I realize MSU has won the last 3 meetings, but I still cannot believe how many MSU fans are literally just chalking up the UM game as an automatic win. When MSU was losing 7-8 in a row I don't think I ever thought the MSU game was a lock for Michigan. Maybe JLS's last year, but that's it.

    Big M

  • spartanstate said...

    How many more spots do you guys have? It will be very interesting to see how it all comes together in the end since it looks like you guys might run out of spots.

    How many WR are you guys planning to take?

    25-26 will be in this class. 1-2 wr's.

    xxmgobluexx

  • xxmgobluexx said...

    25-26 will be in this class. 1-2 wr's.

    I think we PENCIL in Burbridge and Stanford

    signature image signature image signature image

    RicoX19

  • xxmgobluexx said...

    25-26 will be in this class. 1-2 wr's.

    I didn't realize that you guys were going to be taking a full class. I still find it hard to believe that you guys have room for Washington, Pittman and Wormley. Maybe 2, but not all 3 since you guys haven't gotten any DTs yet.

    spartanstate

  • spartanstate said...

    I didn't realize that you guys were going to be taking a full class. I still find it hard to believe that you guys have room for Washington, Pittman and Wormley. Maybe 2, but not all 3 since you guys haven't gotten any DTs yet.

    Supposedly UM has "slowed down" the recruitment of Pittman.

    If 10 more are taken in this class it'll be:

    3DL
    1DB
    2OL
    1WR
    1RB
    1QB
    and 1 I dunno

    This post was edited by buttesnake on 6/14/2011 at 3:54 PM

    buttesnake

  • buttesnake said...

    Supposedly UM has "slowed down" the recruitment of Pittman.

    If 10 more are taken in this class it'll be:

    3DL 1DB 2OL 1WR 1RB 1QB and 1 I dunno

    "Slowed down" what the hell does that mean? FML, I didn't think you guys were in the position to be slow playing a guy like Pittman. Did he try to commit or something? I hope that means that you guys let him go like you did Morgan, but I don't think we have a chance at Pittman either way.

    How about FBs? I'm guessing RR never had FB recruit right?

    spartanstate