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SpartanRocky said...
I don't know either. Every one of the 8 returning starters received at least an Hon. Mention (2, WILL LB Norman and CB Darqueze Dennard), and those 2 missed 2 or 3 full games during the regular season. The question is how the replacements fair. I doubt MSU gets Worthy's production out of Hoover/White . . . but I think one of those 2 could exceed what Kevin Pickelman gave at NT when he was starting (started 9/14 games).
I'm more optimistic about the FS position vacated by Trenton Robinson, because the back-ups got a lot of PT last year.
So, in the end, it's a question mark who will improve and by how much. I tend to believe that younger players have more room to improve than the older guys. In that respect, I'd expect minimal improvements from Chris Norman and Johnny Adams, and bigger improvements from the guys who were in their first year starting last year: DEs Gholston and Rush, LBs Bullough and Allen, CB Darqueze Dennard and SS Isaiah Lewis.
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SpartanRocky said...
True, but that should have helped Michigan much more than MSU. As you correctly point out, MSU's running game was not good last season, while it's passing game was among the more efficient and potent in the conference.
UM, on the flip side, had a pair of 1000 yard rushers last season and finished averaging over 220 yards/game on the ground (221.85 ypg, 13th nationally) and a robust 5.15 yards/carry as a team. Prior to the MSU game in fact, UM was 7th nationally in rushing offense at a ridiculous 270.4 yards/game.
Bad weather conditions for passing should favor the stronger rushing team. Michigan State was able to take away UM's greatest offensive strength.
The result, however, was that UM rushed for 82 yards, less than 1/3 of their season average to date, and a miserable 2.3 YPC. UM actually threw for more yards (168 vs. 120) than MSU and a better YPA (5.4 to 5.0). The difference was the MSU run-game, where Edwin Baker alone doubled Michigan's ground production (167 yards, 6.4 YPC) and the team had 213 yards on 5.5 YPC, the best rushing output of the season for MSU.
That's probably the best defensive job done by MSU last year. UM was 19th nationally in scoring O (19th, 38.8 ppg) and 14th in total O (491.40 yards/game) going into that game. They were held to 14 points and 250 yards, or 36.1% of their average scoring and 50.8% of their average yardage. That's some pretty good D.
MSU, OTOH, averaged 28 PPG and 398 YPG going in. MSU reached 100% of their scoring average and 83.66% of their yardage average.
Interesting stats.
This post was edited by Peterklima on 5/2/2012 at 1:32 PM
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SpartanRocky said...
Awesome, you've just given MSU fans an excuse for the ND and Nebraska offensive performances; Roushar called the wrong plays. Lest you think I'm making fun of you, he had that horrible unbalanced line vs. ND and continuously called deep passes to an always-double covered Cunningham against Nebraska, going away from the run which was working.
Come on man, just give MSU's D credit for being very good against Michigan last year.
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Peterklima said...
Your post just made me realize what Borgess was doing in EL. He obviously knew the pass game was their weakness. He probably figured Denard would do a better job evading the pass rush and finding secondary receivers than he did. (9Part of Denard's failure there was probably lack of familiarity with the offensive plays.) So Borgess scouted MSU pretty well.
The $1MM question is why didn't he change it on game day when the conditions were not suitable for passing? Was it "too late" based on the plays they had practiced earlier in the week? Was it the lack of a primary tailback at the time? Was it over confidence in DRob? Was it just a mistkare? Regardless, it was a close game at the end, so maybe it wasn't a CRAZY idea to keep with the scouting plan?!?! (BTW- I believe Borgess has said he screwed up in his decision to pass on 4th and 1 that changed the game. For one reason or another he stuck with the passing game plan even in bad spots.)
Also, this makes me think Narduzzi was doing more than just gambling on harrassing QBs trying to figure out a new offense. He was covering up the defenses blemishes by unleashing the pass rush. Makes since too because Gholston is their superstar and Worthy was one the line too.
It'll be interesting to see how it plays out this year. Do we continue to see Denard improve in the passing game like he did towards the end of last year? What does having a clear starting RB do to the game plan? Does the MSu defense get better?
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swizbeatz said...
The pass defense is MSU's weakness? I have heard nothing but good things said about MSU's back 7 last year, as shown by the post season recognition. I have also heard nothing but good things for the unit as a whole, so i don't understand how he would be covering up blemishes. I'll just take this as an attempt to troll and stop replying at this point.
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Peterklima said...
They were very good. I said that. I just said they don't induce "concern" among rival fans. (Well, maybe CMU fans.)
I am not "making excuses" Michigan's poor offensive performance. Michigan's offense played poorly. Play calling is part of that. The focus is how you rate the MSU defense on that day. Likewise, in the ND and Nebraska examples you gave, Roushar's play calling is not an excuse for MSU's poor offensive performance in those games. It is part of the poor performance.
BUT, if you were assessing the ND and/or Nebraska defenses in those games, you might consider those factors when "grading them."
Seriously, people think that the "wind" or play calling is some kind of excuse for losing or playing poorly on offense. It is not for either. But, it some something that you look at when trying to figure out "just how good" the other team's defense was in a game. Is the distinction really lost on true CFB fans?
Michigan State does not and will not run the 3-4 defense.
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swizbeatz said...
Didn't every secondary player get at least honorable mention all big ten? Wow, exploit that weakness.
Edit- Basically tied for 3rd in yards per attempt.
This post was edited by SpartanRocky on 5/2/2012 at 2:35 PM
Michigan State does not and will not run the 3-4 defense.
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SpartanRocky said...
It really has to do with the 2010 class providing help much faster than anticipated; of those 6 "young 1st year starters", 5 were from the 2010 class and featured 4 true Sophs (Gholston, Bullough, Lewis and Dennard) and 1 RS FR (Rush). Denicos Allen was a RS Soph last season (2009 class). Anthony Rashad White was a JUCO from the 2010 class as well. Drummond, the likely starter at FS is, guess what, a 2010 guy as well.
We had a discussion on our board about the 2009 class vs. the 2010 class. The 2009 class featured 10 4-stars; the 2010 class 1 5-star and 4 4-stars (via Rivals, 247 wasn't working then). Despite one less year, the 2010 class is outperforming the 2009 one across the board; 17 of the 22 members of 2010 are either projected starters or are expected to be key contributors in some other way. That's an almost unheard of rash of "success" from one recruiting class; if over 50% of your classes are starting/making an impact, your team is pretty solid.
We'll see if the '11 class can provide similar depth. Who knows. Fun to discuss though.
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SpartanRocky said...
Maybe it's just me, but you're pretty much trotting out every conceviable reason for why MSU's defensive performance was just not that great against UM.
Pass D: Well, UM was playing with the wind.
Run D: Well, Borges called bad plays.
How much of this was due to MSU controlling the line of scrimmage? How many plays on the ball did the DBs make? State had 7 sacks; isn't that up to your OL to prevent those sacks? How much running room did Denard have?
This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by MrWoodson on 5/2/2012 at 2:59 PM
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SpartanRocky said...
It really has to do with the 2010 class providing help much faster than anticipated; of those 6 "young 1st year starters", 5 were from the 2010 class and featured 4 true Sophs (Gholston, Bullough, Lewis and Dennard) and 1 RS FR (Rush). Denicos Allen was a RS Soph last season (2009 class). Anthony Rashad White was a JUCO from the 2010 class as well. Drummond, the likely starter at FS is, guess what, a 2010 guy as well.
We had a discussion on our board about the 2009 class vs. the 2010 class. The 2009 class featured 10 4-stars; the 2010 class 1 5-star and 4 4-stars (via Rivals, 247 wasn't working then). Despite one less year, the 2010 class is outperforming the 2009 one across the board; 17 of the 22 members of 2010 are either projected starters or are expected to be key contributors in some other way. That's an almost unheard of rash of "success" from one recruiting class; if over 50% of your classes are starting/making an impact, your team is pretty solid.
We'll see if the '11 class can provide similar depth. Who knows. Fun to discuss though.
MSU isn't a very good football program.. takes year of consistent winning to get to that level. - copemoney 1/22/13
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SpartanRocky said...
Maybe it's just me, but you're pretty much trotting out every conceviable reason for why MSU's defensive performance was just not that great against UM.
Pass D: Well, UM was playing with the wind.
Run D: Well, Borges called bad plays.
How much of this was due to MSU controlling the line of scrimmage? How many plays on the ball did the DBs make? State had 7 sacks; isn't that up to your OL to prevent those sacks? How much running room did Denard have?
Okay, let me try: I would say that wind or weather usually is about 7.3% of the performance of the UM offense that day. And, I would say poor offensive play calling is 10% or so. Add it up and it is 17.3% of the reason for the performance. I would also argue that those two factors usualy combine for less than 10% of the offense's performance.
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SpartanRocky said...
Johnny Adams: 1st Team Coaches
Trenton Robinson: 1st Team Media
Isaiah Lewis : 2nd team Consensus
Darqueze Dennard: Consensus Hon. Mention (only played in 10 of 12 regular season games, had 4 tackles and 2 INTS (1 pick 6) in the bowl game)Also, Klima, I compared MSU and UM's Big 10 Regular season opponents head to head in terms of average PPG and total O. MSU faced higher scoring O's and stronger total Offenses than UM. It's probably 10-15 pages ago, maybe 20. I think the PPG was a 4 point difference, on average, and the total O difference was something like 26 yards/game. Given the discrepancy, I do not believe that Big 10 statistics show that UM had the better defense.
Additionally, I do not see a viable argument for UM having a better rush D than MSU last year, in big 10 play. UM gave up 2.5 yards/game less than MSU, but gave up a higher YPA (3.7 to MSU's 2.9) and nearly twice the rushing TDs (11 to MSU's 6) despite facing over 70 FEWER rushing attempts.
Now consider that Michigan State faced both Wisconsin and Michigan in Big 10 play last year, the top 2 rushing O's in the conference. Michigan faced neither offense. That's a pretty big difference in rushing O's faced, and for UM to only give up 2.5 ypg less than MSU, as well as falling behind by a far margin in YPA and rush TDs given up, does not outweigh the discrepancy in rush O's faced.
Edit: I know how UM fans like to state that scoring D is the "only stat that matters" in defense, and therefore you could make the argument that UM had a better D than MSU because UM's national scoring D was better than MSU's (#6 vs. #10).
Just so you're aware, UM's Big 10 scoring D was higher than MSU's, who was #2 behind PSU. If your statement about scoring D's is true, then it's clear that MSU had a better defense in Big 10 play than UM did in 2011. I also think this is compounded by the fact that, on average, MSU faced tougher offenses than Michigan in 2011.
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MrWoodson said...
Clearly some people are overstating/exaggerating on both sides here, but you can't deny that teams perform better in some games than others and that is a major reason upsets occur. It's not crazy or unreasonable to believe that we did not play our best game against you last year or that you did not play your best game against ND or Nebraska. Likewise, take our game against Nebraska last year. Yes, we played well, but they also repeatedly shot themselves in the foot by turning the ball over. I believe we were the better team, but not by the margin of victory we had. If we had played them 10x on a neutral field, my guess is we would have won 5-6x. And something similar is true of our game with you last year. We lost, period, and that L is what goes in the record books, but the teams were not wildly different in terms of how good they were. And if we had played 10x on a neutral field, it is very likely neither team would have won more than 5-6x.
Edit: And just to be clear, I would not say the same thing about RR's teams. We were awful.
Michigan State does not and will not run the 3-4 defense.
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Peterklima said...
Okay, let me try: I would say that wind or weather usually is about 7.3% of the performance of the UM offense that day. And, I would say poor offensive play calling is 10% or so. Add it up and it is 17.3% of the reason for the performance. I would also argue that those two factors usualy combine for less than 10% of the offense's performance.
Now I'd like to see your calculations
Michigan State does not and will not run the 3-4 defense.
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xxmgobluexx said...
Aren't you the one who said that the MSU defense was so clearly better than Michigan's that it wasn't even debatable, and yet here we are debating it.
One thing about your rushing stat, in college a sack comes out of the rushing numbers not the passing numbers like the NFL. With sacks being the only stat that MSU led the B1G in, that will clearly help those ypc #'s, and yet it wasn't enough for ypg #'s.
I said it last time and I will say it again, if the MSU defense was so clearly the best defense in the B1G, they would have led in more stats than just sacks.
They also led in Red Zone D
. Case closed. Michigan State does not and will not run the 3-4 defense.
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The Official Michigan, MSU, and 1 Random Guy from Arky Thread