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USC is capable of signing a top 10 recruiting class this year

  • I used the formula that Barton Simmons gave me in my thread earlier today (http://247sports.com/Board/30/My-annoying-questions-for-the-mods-2796414/1). I also used 17 as the number for USC's commits, as this is the that Scott Schrader gave me (15+2 early enrollees).

    For Kelvin York and the other unranked prospects, I gave them a ranking of 3 stars and an 80. So far USC has 9 commits and 826 points. Of the uncommitted prospects that USC has offered, there are: ten 5-star prospects with an average ranking of 98.9 (989 points), Thirty two 4-star prospects with an average ranking of 95.5 (3056 points), and five 3-star prospects with an average ranking of 82.4 (412 points). If you add those points up and divide them by 47, you realize that the average ranking for the remaining members of USC's recruiting class would be 94.829. That would give us an additional 758.638 points if we take 8 more prospects. This would put us 1,584.638 points for 17 prospects, which I will round up.

    Here is the 24/7 recruiting formula with the cap on 17, 20, and 21, and a comparison between USC, recruiting superpower Texas. There is also a comparison to USC's sixth ranked recruiting class from last year and Florida's ninth ranked class.

    17 prospect cap: USC- 1,585... Texas- 1,584 (93.17 average).... '11 USC class 1,583... '11 FL class 1,573
    20 prospect cap: USC- 1,795... Texas- 1,864 (estimate)... 2011 USC Class 1,846... '11 FL class 1,738
    21 prospect cap: USC- 1,865 Texas- 1,965 (estimate)... 2011 USC Class 1,933... '11 FL class 1,808

    It seems as though USC is very capable of signing a top 10 class, even with the restrictions the coaching staff has to deal with.

    Chris Swanson

  • howardjones said...

    I used the formula that Barton Simmons gave me in my thread earlier today (http://247sports.com/Board/30/My-annoying-questions-for-the-mods-2796414/1). I also used 17 as the number for USC's commits, as this is the that Scott Schrader gave me (15+2 early enrollees).

    For Kelvin York and the other unranked prospects, I gave them a ranking of 3 stars and an 80. So far USC has 9 commits and 826 points. Of the uncommitted prospects that USC has offered, there are: ten 5-star prospects with an average ranking of 98.9 (989 points), Thirty two 4-star prospects with an average ranking of 95.5 (3056 points), and five 3-star prospects with an average ranking of 82.4 (412 points). If you add those points up and divide them by 47, you realize that the average ranking for the remaining members of USC's recruiting class would be 94.829. That would give us an additional 758.638 points if we take 8 more prospects. This would put us 1,584.638 points for 17 prospects, which I will round up.

    Here is the 24/7 recruiting formula with the cap on 17, 20, and 21, and a comparison between USC, recruiting superpower Texas. There is also a comparison to USC's sixth ranked recruiting class from last year and Florida's ninth ranked class.

    17 prospect cap: USC- 1,585... Texas- 1,584 (93.17 average).... '11 USC class 1,583... '11 FL class 1,573
    20 prospect cap: USC- 1,795... Texas- 1,864 (estimate)... 2011 USC Class 1,846... '11 FL class 1,738
    21 prospect cap: USC- 1,865 Texas- 1,965 (estimate)... 2011 USC Class 1,933... '11 FL class 1,808

    It seems as though USC is very capable of signing a top 10 class, even with the restrictions the coaching staff has to deal with.

    You hearing anything on Armstead being interested in visiting ND? What is Payton's situation, still firm with USC?

    signature image

    star69 ●

  • star69 said...You hearing anything on Armstead being interested in visiting ND? What is Payton's situation, still firm with USC?

    Armstead is solid and Payton isn't a priority, but is ours if we have room for him.

    Chris Swanson

  • Rivver

  • Rivver said...okay...

    I just wanted to point it out since everyone thinks that we are screwed

    Chris Swanson

  • howardjones said...

    I just wanted to point it out since everyone thinks that we are screwed

    How do you see USC's next 5 years panning out? Asking for your honest opinion. What years do you expect to be the toughest?

    signature image

    star69 ●

  • star69 said...How do you see USC's next 5 years panning out? Asking for your honest opinion. What years do you expect to be the toughest?

    The toughest year will be the year before we can take 25 kids again. Who's left of our last big recruiting class will be seniors and we might be hurting to sign a few guys. This class is going to be fine because we will take 17, but the 2013 and 2014 cycles won't be that much fun. I think this year and the next will be the two years for USC to shine on the field. I expect us to have around 10 wins this year and the next (2012 top 5 if we hang on to a few NFL ready guys), then I expect us to hover around 8 wins because of the depth. If we stay healthy, I expect us to be able to hang with anyone, but I'm not sure that we will.

    Chris Swanson

  • howardjones said...

    The toughest year will be the year before we can take 25 kids again. Who's left of our last big recruiting class will be seniors and we might be hurting to sign a few guys. This class is going to be fine because we will take 17, but the 2013 and 2014 cycles won't be that much fun. I think this year and the next will be the two years for USC to shine on the field. I expect us to have around 10 wins this year and the next (2012 top 5 if we hang on to a few NFL ready guys), then I expect us to hover around 8 wins because of the depth. If we stay healthy, I expect us to be able to hang with anyone, but I'm not sure that we will.

    I think Barkley is gone after this year. What does your QB depth chart look like after him?

    signature image

    star69 ●

  • Good luck with that.

    Probae esti in segetem sunt deteriorem datae fruges, tamen ipsae suaptae enitent

    L Perry ●

  • star69 said...I think Barkley is gone after this year. What does your QB depth chart look like after him?

    4 star Jesse Scroggins (2011 RS Frosh)
    4 star Max Wittek (2011 Frosh)
    4 star Cody Kessler (2011 Frosh)

    Chris Swanson

  • who cares about a top 10 class, just fill the needs with talented kids.

    It's not like USC will be winning a NC anytime soon.

    MB7

  • howardjones said...

    4 star Jesse Scroggins (2011 RS Frosh) 4 star Max Wittek (2011 Frosh) 4 star Cody Kessler (2011 Frosh)

    Scroggins - average
    Wittek - talented
    Kesslar - overrated

    MB7

  • star69 said...

    How do you see USC's next 5 years panning out? Asking for your honest opinion. What years do you expect to be the toughest?

    2011 : 8-9 wins
    2012: 7-8 wins
    2013: 7 wins
    2014: 5 wins

    MB7

  • howardjones said...

    Armstead is solid and Payton isn't a priority, but is ours if we have room for him.

    lol Armstead is far from solid. ND gonna grab him

    MB7

  • i think everyone think's yer screwed because you have lane kiffin as your head coach...

    in reality, it might be true, unless monty can save the boy...

    but, why should that matter, yo...

    it's still univurcity of souf centro dogg...

    yea--e-yeah...

    attachment
    signature image
    signature image
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    www.yohoodent.com ... errybawdee awn ignorle

    GoingLightBarny

  • MB7 said...

    lol Armstead is far from solid. ND gonna grab him

    Troll

    dukeb15 ●

  • howardjones said...

    I used the formula that Barton Simmons gave me in my thread earlier today (http://247sports.com/Board/30/My-annoying-questions-for-the-mods-2796414/1). I also used 17 as the number for USC's commits, as this is the that Scott Schrader gave me (15+2 early enrollees).

    For Kelvin York and the other unranked prospects, I gave them a ranking of 3 stars and an 80. So far USC has 9 commits and 826 points. Of the uncommitted prospects that USC has offered, there are: ten 5-star prospects with an average ranking of 98.9 (989 points), Thirty two 4-star prospects with an average ranking of 95.5 (3056 points), and five 3-star prospects with an average ranking of 82.4 (412 points). If you add those points up and divide them by 47, you realize that the average ranking for the remaining members of USC's recruiting class would be 94.829. That would give us an additional 758.638 points if we take 8 more prospects. This would put us 1,584.638 points for 17 prospects, which I will round up.

    Here is the 24/7 recruiting formula with the cap on 17, 20, and 21, and a comparison between USC, recruiting superpower Texas. There is also a comparison to USC's sixth ranked recruiting class from last year and Florida's ninth ranked class.

    17 prospect cap: USC- 1,585... Texas- 1,584 (93.17 average).... '11 USC class 1,583... '11 FL class 1,573 20 prospect cap: USC- 1,795... Texas- 1,864 (estimate)... 2011 USC Class 1,846... '11 FL class 1,738 21 prospect cap: USC- 1,865 Texas- 1,965 (estimate)... 2011 USC Class 1,933... '11 FL class 1,808

    It seems as though USC is very capable of signing a top 10 class, even with the restrictions the coaching staff has to deal with.

    Good analysis, but it seems it may be slanted a little because you're factoring the values of ten 5-star guys when you're likely to only land 1 or 2, possibly 3 if you have a really outstanding class.

    Maybe just breakdown the 17 slots how you see it most likely playing out. Add in two 5-star guys, two 3-star guys, and the rest 4-star. Something like that. It won't make a huge difference probably, but is maybe more accurate?

    You can still win if you avoid injuries. Auburn lost literally half of the recruits from the 2007 and 2008 classes. Tuberville went after way too many academic question marks and we really paid for it in depth (I believe we played 2009 with about 70 scholarship players).

    The BCS title last year was won primarily with about 10 guys from the 2006 class, 10 from the 2007 class, and some freshman from the 2010 class. The only reason it worked is because we had only 1 significant injury (a starting offensive lineman that was replaced by a JUCO transfer).

    Keep bringing in the talent, avoid injuries, and you might get through it without a drastic drop off.

    That is if Kiffin can be a successful head coach. I guess we really don't know the answer to that one yet, regardless of talent and depth.

    signature image signature image

    jadennis

  • star69 said...

    I think Barkley is gone after this year. What does your QB depth chart look like after him?

    Three very good QB's hoping he does. I hope he stays, but agree with you, may not happen.

    Nattys50447

  • jadennis said...

    Good analysis, but it seems it may be slanted a little because you're factoring the values of ten 5-star guys when you're likely to only land 1 or 2, possibly 3 if you have a really outstanding class.

    Maybe just breakdown the 17 slots how you see it most likely playing out. Add in two 5-star guys, two 3-star guys, and the rest 4-star. Something like that. It won't make a huge difference probably, but is maybe more accurate?

    You can still win if you avoid injuries. Auburn lost literally half of the recruits from the 2007 and 2008 classes. Tuberville went after way too many academic question marks and we really paid for it in depth (I believe we played 2009 with about 70 scholarship players).

    The BCS title last year was won primarily with about 10 guys from the 2006 class, 10 from the 2007 class, and some freshman from the 2010 class. The only reason it worked is because we had only 1 significant injury (a starting offensive lineman that was replaced by a JUCO transfer).

    Keep bringing in the talent, avoid injuries, and you might get through it without a drastic drop off.

    That is if Kiffin can be a successful head coach. I guess we really don't know the answer to that one yet, regardless of talent and depth.

    will be hard to avoid injuries, just part of the game. I'm not as optimistic but hope to be proved wrong.

    Nattys50447

  • L. Perry said...

    Good luck with that.

    we may need more than luck, but thanks for the well wishes.

    Nattys50447

  • MB7 said...

    who cares about a top 10 class, just fill the needs with talented kids.

    It's not like USC will be winning a NC anytime soon.

    agree with your first line

    I don't disagree with your second, but at the same time I hope I'm wrong.

    Nattys50447

  • MB7 said...

    Scroggins - average Wittek - talented Kesslar - overrated

    I've been saying on the USC board, MAX is definitely the replacement for Barkley.

    Nattys50447

  • jadennis said...

    Good analysis, but it seems it may be slanted a little because you're factoring the values of ten 5-star guys when you're likely to only land 1 or 2, possibly 3 if you have a really outstanding class.

    Maybe just breakdown the 17 slots how you see it most likely playing out. Add in two 5-star guys, two 3-star guys, and the rest 4-star. Something like that. It won't make a huge difference probably, but is maybe more accurate?

    You can still win if you avoid injuries. Auburn lost literally half of the recruits from the 2007 and 2008 classes. Tuberville went after way too many academic question marks and we really paid for it in depth (I believe we played 2009 with about 70 scholarship players).

    The BCS title last year was won primarily with about 10 guys from the 2006 class, 10 from the 2007 class, and some freshman from the 2010 class. The only reason it worked is because we had only 1 significant injury (a starting offensive lineman that was replaced by a JUCO transfer).

    Keep bringing in the talent, avoid injuries, and you might get through it without a drastic drop off.

    That is if Kiffin can be a successful head coach. I guess we really don't know the answer to that one yet, regardless of talent and depth.

    The difference in average star ranking that you are talking about is 4 compared to 4.1. If I dropped our average player ranking to 90 from 94, our 17 prospects would have a point total of 1,530, which is still very very high. By the way, thanks for the encouraging words about my program.

    Chris Swanson

  • GoingLightBarny said...

    i think everyone think's yer screwed because you have lane kiffin as your head coach...

    in reality, it might be true, unless monty can save the boy...

    but, why should that matter, yo...

    it's still univurcity of souf centro dogg...

    yea--e-yeah...

    Kiffin was considered a great up and coming coach that got a bad deal in Oakland until Tennessee fans got butt hurt. I think a great coaching staff is more important than one guy anyone, and we might have the best coaching staff in the country, in terms of resumes, top to bottom.

    I would rather live in downtown los angeles than whatever state you're from, trust me

    Chris Swanson

  • MB7.....

    "who cares about a top 10 class, just fill the needs with talented kids. It's not like USC will be winning a NC anytime soon."

    My point was that taking 17 talented kids and filling our needs will land us a top ten class. You do realize that if MNC's happen once a decade, it was an epic decade. So what's your definition of soon, and why should I care about winning an MNC soon or in a decade?

    ......."Scroggins - average, Wittek - talented, Kesslar - overrated"

    These kids where the top quarterbacks in california the last two years according to every recruiting service. I think they are all very talented, but even if you think they are "overrated" or "average", we are still talking about kids that are immensely talented. I'll take the scouting reports I pay for over your scouting reports.

    "2011 : 8-9 wins, 2012: 7-8 wins, 2013: 7 wins, 2014: 5 wins"

    5 wins in 2014? Cool story, bro.

    "lol Armstead is far from solid. ND gonna grab him"

    Yeah, he's going to nowheresville, Indiana to play football. He's from California, his brother plays at USC, and he's committed. I think we might have a chance.

    ...... Why do you even pretend to be a USC fan?

    Chris Swanson

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