The Blue Board

Why do you think it's the Big 12 that's waiting? I think it's more a case of programs looking at the SEC, ACC and Big Ten as better options because of the equal share of TV and bowl revenue.

With the SEC at 14 schools, the Big Ten at 14 (with Maryland and Rutgers) and the ACC with 12, I think schools that are attractive to the Big 12 see the potential 8 spots in those conferences (presuming they all expand to 16 schools) as more attractive than the spots the Big 12 has available. The fact is, Texas' control over the Big 12 money has already caused Nebraska, Colorado, Texas A&M and Missouri to bolt for better situations. To compensate, the Big 12 had to go for West Virginia - who the SEC and ACC didn't want - and TCU.

The SEC added A&M and Missouri and the reaction from ESPN and CBS (whoever holds Tier 1) was meh. They said that they would increase the contracts enough to avoid dilution, but there is no value added. The Big 12 is not anxious to add teams like those two. Teams that don't increase the pot. Notre Dame clearly would. FSU might. There are also a lot of new dollars being added to the pot outside of TV contracts. Potential play-off payouts, the new SEC/Big 12 bowl matchup, etc. The Big 12 splits these huge pots 10 ways. The SEC 14 ways. The disadvantage of a 10 team conference is that there are 9 conference games so the win/loss records suffer.

Why expand? Big 12 doesn't have a TV network. TV Contract is sitting at $20 Million per team, while giving all teams free reign with tier 3 rights. WVU is looking to make another $7 Million on tier 3. Also throw in money from the Champions Bowl, which is $4 Million per team($40 Million per conference). Teams like WVU will easily make over $30 Million a year just from TV money. Also get a round robin to determine conference champion.

Adding two teams just to add two teams would be stupid. We don't have something like the Big 10 Network where we can just add a Rutgers or Maryland to expand market. We need eyeballs/ratings. Not markets. That is why WVU was brought in. Not a huge market, but good ratings. Adding two teams would just take away from programs that are already members, making their cut smaller. What is the sense in that? Conferences are way too big at 14. Playing 60% of your conference is terrible, and punishes the fans since we miss out on so many great match ups.

I wouldn't mind moving to 12 if its the right two schools. Nothing passed that.

a team that wants to be in the Big 12

Sorry, but I don't see any way WVU is going to make $30mm a year in TV money. What makes you think WVU's tier 3 rights are worth $7mm per year? If their tier 3 rights were that valuable, they would be an independent, because the value of their tier 1 and tier 2 rights would be enormous.

It's interesting to me that a WVU fan is defending the Big 12. My bet is that, while in the Big 12, WVU will travel more each year than any team other than Hawaii. I look for WVU to have a pretty severe Home/Away differential in the Big 12 because of that, which is going to effectively end it's ability to compete for national championships. The rest of the Big 12 only has to take that long flight once every other year. WVU has to do it either 4 or 5 times each year.

I don't see anything left in the big east worth having

Who cares about travel? NFL teams do it every week. ACC teams travel up and down the east coast. They have these things called airplanes these days. I went from eastern NC to California in 6 hours. How long do you think it takes to get from Morgantown, WV to Texas? Not that long.

Many teams get right around $7 Million tier 3, and they aren't independents. Not sure what you are thinking with that one.

Yes, WVU, and the other teams in the Big 12 will be right around $30 Million after you add up $20 Million tier 1 and 2 TV deal, tier 3, Champions Bowl with $4 Million per school, other Bowl revenue, ect...

Its simple math. Hell, I'm not even counting beer sales, which netted around $1.7 Million for WVU last season.

I agree, but the real problem with the B12 is it is inherently unstable. Everything hinges on UT. Everything. And UT has made it abundantly clear they will always do whatever is in their own best interests. That might be a tolerable risk for a school like Iowa State, which has no other real alternatives, but it can't be seen as an acceptable situation by schools like Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. We've already seen Colorado, Nebraska, Missouri and A&M leave. Trust me, no school in the B12 feels safe and secure right now as far as the long-term survival of the B12 is concerned.

Also, I know everyone in the B12 likes to throw around the Grant of Rights as the great solution to everything. It is no such thing. It is a temporary fix. UT agreed to the GOR because it needed time to get LHN up and running. It wanted a 5 year GOR and ended up getting pushed into a 13 year GOR, but either way every year that passes reduces the cost of exit from the B12 until that cost evaporates entirely when the GOR expires. In effect, the GOR has put the other nine B12 schools on the clock to find a long term solution before the GOR runs out or before some group of smart lawyers finds a way around it. If UT ever decides it is in their best interests to leave the B12 to go to another conference or to go independent, it will do so. And at that point the B12 will collapse.

Louisville has accepted an invite to the ACC. Louisville is gone.

Unless somebody can flip them... Coach Urbs style.

IMO here are the two most likely scenarios for the next round of expansion:

SEC: Adds North Carolina & Virginia

B16 TEN: Adds Virginia Tech and one of Syracuse/Pittsburgh/N.C. State/Ga. Tech

That would likely send the following to what would become the BIG 16:
FSU
Miami
Clemson
Louisville
Syracuse/Pitt/N.C. State/Ga. Tech
Syracuse/Pitt/N.C. State/Ga. Tech

OR

B16 TEN: Adds North Carolina & Virginia

SEC: Adds Virginia Tech & N.C. State

That would likely send the following to what would become the BIG 16:
FSU
Miami
Georgia Tech
Clemson
Louisville
Syracuse/Pittsburgh

MarineMountie... here's a bit of info, this comes from collegefootballtalk.nbcsports.com website..

Stefan Stevenson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram writes that TCU will “gradually slide into the conference’s revenue-sharing structure over the next four years. TCU will earn 50 percent of the normal $17 million payout in the 2012-13 academic year, 67 percent in 2013-14, 84 percent in 2014-15, and 100 percent in 2015-16.”

So based on this info that 30 million you say WVU is going to get is way off target. Can't imagine WVU is getting any sweeter of a deal than TCU.