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What effect would Spain going bankrupt have on U.S.?

  • Thanks.

    fsufsu

  • It would mean that going on vacation in Spain would be very cheap, yet probably more dangerous.

    AlwaysMore

  • Michelle Obama would certainly have to cut down her luxury trips there, I'd assume.

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    GONIG BUCK

  • fsufsu said...

    Thanks.

    Spain then Greece then Italy then Portugal then the rest of Europe then US then global recession/depression.

    Doesn't everyone love the interconnectedness of the global economy?

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    "A political call, the fall guy accord...We can't afford to be neutral on a moving train..."

    BamaLivesFootba

  • BamaLivesFootba said...

    Spain then Greece then Italy then Portugal then the rest of Europe then US then global recession/depression.

    Doesn't everyone love the interconnectedness of the global economy?

    Is that your honest opinion? I mean, it makes sense.

    fsufsu

  • fsufsu said...

    Is that your honest opinion? I mean, it makes sense.

    Yes. The exposure those European countries have to each other's debt in addition to the drop in import/export and intercontinental economic and political relations would be too much. EU is the largest economic union in the world. If multiple countries default and go into deep recession/depression we are all fvcked.

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    "A political call, the fall guy accord...We can't afford to be neutral on a moving train..."

    BamaLivesFootba

  • Think Lehman Brothers and friends on steroids.

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    "A political call, the fall guy accord...We can't afford to be neutral on a moving train..."

    BamaLivesFootba

  • I mean that's been my opinion for years. I think America will be in a depression many people will not be able to believe in 5-7 years. Thought it was a pretty radical opinion though, not like.....mainstream.

    fsufsu

  • fsufsu said...

    I mean that's been my opinion for years. I think America will be in a depression many people will not be able to believe in 5-7 years. Thought it was a pretty radical opinion though, not like.....mainstream.

    The crazy thing is that, unlike the past where we were the only country who could really send us into a depression, there are now multiple countries and unions that could send us into a recession and even worse a depression. If the BRIC countries collapsed, if European Union collapsed, if the Tiger economies collapsed, it would send the world into a global depression.

    Everyone is so interconnected that one default have a huge domino effect on the world.

    This post was edited by BamaLivesFootba on 4/28/2012 at 6:36 PM

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    "A political call, the fall guy accord...We can't afford to be neutral on a moving train..."

    BamaLivesFootba

  • I have plenty of guns,ammo and vegetables. I'll survive.

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    DrStach_

  • There was a good 60 minutes segment on the EU's financial woes two weeks ago. I highly recommend it.

    Basically, because the countries in financial trouble don't own their own currency, they can't use economic tools like interest rates and currency valuation to manage their own problems. So guess who essentially owns them? Germany. Naturally that invokes WWII/Nazi memories, which incites the citizens to favor political candidates who want to pull out of the EU. Since the EU and most currencies are stabilized significantly by foreign debt, there's a lot of fear of the unknown with countries leaving the EU. Which brings the tricky situation of Germany using said debt from bailouts to control elections and incites even more populous turmoil.

    Basically it's a giant mess and Germany, whether intentional or not, will own the bankrupt countries unless they revolt against the EU. Then who do we side with?

    PTCcock195

  • PTCcock195 said...

    There was a good 60 minutes segment on the EU's financial woes two weeks ago. I highly recommend it.

    Basically, because the countries in financial trouble don't own their own currency, they can't use economic tools like interest rates and currency valuation to manage their own problems. So guess who essentially owns them? Germany. Naturally that invokes WWII/Nazi memories, which incites the citizens to favor political candidates who want to pull out of the EU. Since the EU and most currencies are stabilized significantly by foreign debt, there's a lot of fear of the unknown with countries leaving the EU. Which brings the tricky situation of Germany using said debt from bailouts to control elections and incites even more populous turmoil.

    Basically it's a giant mess and Germany, whether intentional or not, will own the bankrupt countries unless they revolt against the EU. Then who do we side with?

    I would side with Germany. However, I doubt they would side with the spendthrift, wasteful Americans, whose government debt on a percentage of GDP basis is in league with Greece and Portugal, but on a much larger scale.

    FSU Football. Making cool the new swag since 2013.

    gonoles2011

  • France is even favoring essentially anti-EU candidates. There's an Economist article this week on it and the potential repercusssions but I haven't gotten around to reading it.

    Germany is already, basically controlling the Greek government. But with elections coming up its getting into in unchartered waters whether or not they'll try to suspend those elections if unfavorable candidates look like they'll win.

    PTCcock195

  • PTCcock195 said...

    France is even favoring essentially anti-EU candidates. There's an Economist article this week on it and the potential repercusssions but I haven't gotten around to reading it.

    Germany is already, basically controlling the Greek government. But with elections coming up its getting into in unchartered waters whether or not they'll try to suspend those elections if unfavorable candidates look like they'll win.

    I posted this is another thread, but the Hollande candidate guy running against Sarkozy is essentially a very left-wing,socialist, anti-EU.

    Guy wants 100% income tax on people making $500k+. When asked on the possibility of them leaving he essentially said "whatever".

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    "A political call, the fall guy accord...We can't afford to be neutral on a moving train..."

    BamaLivesFootba

  • Dr.Stache said...

    I have plenty of guns,ammo and vegetables. I'll survive.

    Good man
    Get silver/gold

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    3 time POTW, member since 2006, MLWTI: 4-3

    irishyoung

  • Depressing thread.

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    How Bout Em!

    GeorgiaDawgs804

  • fsufsu said...

    I mean that's been my opinion for years. I think America will be in a depression many people will not be able to believe in 5-7 years. Thought it was a pretty radical opinion though, not like.....mainstream.

    Friday was my last day of classes, my econ professor gave the best speech I've ever heard, will link when I get to my laptop

    http://www.econ.psu.edu/~tll32/Last%20Day.pdf

    This post was edited by ejb5212 on 4/28/2012 at 11:25 PM

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    'Just to make it clear, I'm not transferring, I like it here too damn much to leave.' Jordan Kerner

    ejb5212

  • I think 'will have' is a more sccurate question. The spanish fed holds over 5billion in defaulted loans which is about 10% of the total banking transactions currently held by the gov. In essence they are getting ready to take a 10 percent gross hit. They are effed.
    As to germany, its a natural progression for the big to eat the small. And money is the new bullet on the european front. serves the lazy nap taking bastards right. Grown ass men taking a two hour nap in the middle of the day....smh

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    AUVTM

  • PTCcock195 said...

    There was a good 60 minutes segment on the EU's financial woes two weeks ago. I highly recommend it.

    Basically, because the countries in financial trouble don't own their own currency, they can't use economic tools like interest rates and currency valuation to manage their own problems. So guess who essentially owns them? Germany. Naturally that invokes WWII/Nazi memories, which incites the citizens to favor political candidates who want to pull out of the EU. Since the EU and most currencies are stabilized significantly by foreign debt, there's a lot of fear of the unknown with countries leaving the EU. Which brings the tricky situation of Germany using said debt from bailouts to control elections and incites even more populous turmoil.

    Basically it's a giant mess and Germany, whether intentional or not, will own the bankrupt countries unless they revolt against the EU. Then who do we side with?

    The interesting thing here is that Germany is trying to avoid another situation like the one leading up to WWII, and everyone else is pushing them into it. What the EU needs right now more than anything is to lower interest rates, but that could cause inflation like what led up to WWII, and Germany refuses to do it based on those grounds. It's really a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation for them.

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    Jcrick

  • irishyoung420 said...

    Good man
    Get silver/gold

    Silver and gold will be as worthless as paper money if things get really bad. After a certain point, if you can't eat it, hunt with it, or cultivate with it, no one will barter for it. Gold and silver serve none of those purposes.

    bvg153555

  • rms02d said...

    The US economy's stregthis based on consumer spending, not exports to Spain.

    Consumer spending is a strength for the US? A consumer-based economy is a house of cards, which is a concept totally lost on most Fed Governors.

    FSU Football. Making cool the new swag since 2013.

    gonoles2011

  • To answer your question with a question

    How good is your Chinese?

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    @BillyEN4C

    BillyEN4C

  • rms02d said...

    Spain would get bailed out by the IMF or EU before going "bankrupt"

    The value of the Euro would decrease relative to the dollar. (Remember a few years ago people said the EURO could replace the $ as reserve currency, HA) probably only short term, but imports to US would be cheaper, and exports more expensive to Europe.

    Spain is a small economy relatively speaking. It would prolong the world recession and the Euro crisis, but it wouldn't hurt the US that much. The US economy's stregthis based on consumer spending, not exports to Spain.

    Spain isn't going bankrupt.

    In these cases "bankrupt" would be defaulting, pulling out of the EU, and going back to a national currency. It's a legitimate concern.

    Germany enforces strict regulations with bailouts that while financially prudent, stifle economic recovery. It's a difficult concept for populations to accept.

    PTCcock195

  • gonoles2011 said...

    Consumer spending is a strength for the US? A consumer-based economy is a house of cards, which is a concept totally lost on most Fed Governors.

    I agree... I'm a supporter of higher tariffs so manufacturing in the United States could be more competitive locally. It's never ideal to rely more on imports than exports.

    rolltide06

  • irishyoung420 said...

    Good man
    Get silver/gold

    I'll just shoot those that have it and take theirs when the time is right.

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    DrStach_