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Who's the next POTUS?

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6 months ago via 247Sports Mobile

Crazy that its so close. I'm nervous energetic about it. I'm not one of the 100 million folks who's wound themselves up to the point where I think my candidate is great but if the other guy wins its the end of life as we know it. I'm actually worried about how many folks do believe that. Anyways....,
I don't want to hear who you WANT to win, who do you think WILL win Tuesday night? I know for many that's difficult to separate band for many the answer is the same.
I really believe in my heart of hearts there are enough indicators, given where we were in '08, that say Barack is doing well enough to get a 2nd term. Just don't think Romney did enough. Your thoughts?

This post was edited by fsufsu on 11/4/2012 at 11:07 AM
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6 months ago via 247Sports Mobile

Obama.
Black Jesus and Aliens.
@rpayne2107
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6 months ago

Obama.
On that note, I also don't think this Republican woman from Nevada will be the only person caught attempting to perpetrate voter fraud.

Roxanne Rubin, Nevada Republican, Arrested For Allegedly Trying To Vote Twice

Roxanne Rubin, a registered Republican from Henderson, Nev., was arrested Friday on a felony charge of attempting to vote twice in the same election. FBI agents took Rubin into custody as she arrived for work at the Riviera hotel-casino, according to the Associated Press.
www.huffingtonpost.com
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6 months ago via 247Sports Mobile

CMXI said...
Obama.
On that note, I also don't think this Republican woman from Nevada will be the only person caught attempting to perpetrate voter fraud.

Posts like these suck: why single out republicans? Stick to Q in th op
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6 months ago

fsufsu said...
Posts like these suck: why single out republicans? Stick to Q in th op

How am I singling out Republicans? I didn't say that I thought it would only be Republicans attempting to perpetrate voter fraud.
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6 months ago

CMXI said...
How am I singling out Republicans? I didn't say that I thought it would only be Republicans attempting to perpetrate voter fraud.

More Acorn Voter Fraud Comes to Light - WSJ.com

Congressional Democrats still want the group to be eligible for federal money.
online.wsj.com
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6 months ago via 247Sports Mobile

Romney because he will win Ohio. Just my opinion.
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6 months ago

Rubio. Obama wins Tuesday, making Rubio the "next" president.
#DicedPineapples
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6 months ago via 247Sports Mobile
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6 months ago

ilovelamp51 said...
FIFY..... unfortunately

Obama might be able to win without Ohio (he'd have to win all of the other states he's currently ahead in), but I've seen he's up a little over 2 points there, so he'll most likely win Ohio. Romney can't win without Ohio.
#DicedPineapples
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6 months ago

McSt[]_[]dly said...

Jeff Dawsy would make a great POTUS.
#DicedPineapples
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6 months ago

Pretty sure it'll be Obama. On a slightly different note, I voted last week for the first time.
Huddles are for rookies.
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6 months ago via 247Sports Mobile

The Vegas line is Obama -350.
he wouldn't let his players pose in the Playboy All-American magazine edition, he said, "Cause you can't play football with an erection."
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6 months ago via 247Sports Mobile

Urban Buckeye said...
The Vegas line is Obama -350.

Romney in a landslide
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6 months ago

All depends on turnout, if Democrats turnout like they did in 08 or close to it then Obama will win, if they don't then Romney could win a lot of states that people think he's losing in right now and will win.
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6 months ago via 247Sports Mobile

Romney will win the popular vote, but will fall short if 270 electoral votes. So Obama will win.
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6 months ago

I don't usually post in here, but the best person to answer this question is Nate Silver, a sabermetrics (think Moneyball) statistician turned political polling analyst. He gives Obama an 85.1% chance of reelection and the ~15% chance of a Romeny win is all due to a polling bias where every poll is biased toward Obama (which he explains is highly unlikely and history argues against this anomaly).
It's worth reading his Nov. 2 and Nov.3 posts to get a pulse of the election forcast.

This post was edited by Goldengator on 11/4/2012 at 1:19 PM

Nov. 3: Romney's Reason to Play for Pennsylvania - NYTimes.com

Our model puts President Obama's chances of winning Pennsylvania at more than 95 percent, but Mitt Romney's alternate paths to an Electoral College victory aren't looking a lot stronger, especially given the Democrats' early voting advantage.
fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com
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6 months ago via 247Sports Mobile

Silver got one election right, the Redskins have a better history of picking winners than he does. That said, I think Obama wins.
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6 months ago

FL Buckeye said...
Silver got one election right, the Redskins have a better history of picking winners than he does. That said, I think Obama wins.

Silver started working as a political analyst in '07. He was right in '08, right in '10 and there is no reason to think he's not right now.
Your argument is false on the assumption he's been picking losers, when, in fact, since he's been a political analyst he's been right, more often than most other analysts.
So if you want to blindly believe he is wrong, because you want Obama voted out of office go for it, but his track record is impeccable and I wouldn't bet against him.
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6 months ago

what people dont realize is most polls silver is using in his analysis have a higher dem turnout than 08. If you think the Dems, who had record turnout, will INCREASE their turnout then you just dont get it. I know tons of republicans/independents that refused to put Palin even close to the presidency.
The race is VERY close and will be within 1-2% in OH and PA. It could go either way because turnout will be much different than these polls suggest
One of the polls is silver's model has D+9 turnout
08 was D+5. That would mean ever Dem who voted in 08 votes again, they lose no voters, and turn 4 out of every 100 voters to the Dem cause.
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6 months ago

ilovelamp51 said...
I think Romney wins Pennsylvania fwiw...

Highly, highly unlikely. If Philly got hit hard by Sandy like people expected, maybe because people wouldn't be around to vote. But Philly didn't even lose power and some of the more rural areas are still without power.

This post was edited by shavisimo2 on 11/4/2012 at 2:27 PM
#DicedPineapples
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6 months ago via 247Sports Mobile

Romney has one path to victory. Obama has 3 or 4.
Betting Romney is like betting a 5 team parlay where betting Obama is like taking the money line on the favorite. Obama wins, just not by much. We get Bloomberg in 2016.
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6 months ago

ilovelamp51 said...
We will see... One of the sites I follow think they flip this year. It would be nice to like your state for once.

I just can't see it happening. At least you like Al Golden with his PA ties.
#DicedPineapples
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6 months ago via 247Sports Mobile

shavisimo2 said...
I just can't see it happening. At least you like Al Golden with his PA ties.

Some think it is a possibility because PA hasnt been slammed with the ads that OH and other battlegroud states have. In the end, it will be close but Obama is too strong there to lose.
Romney needs OH. The auto bailout comments will end up costing him the presidency.
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6 months ago

c_woodson said...
Some think it is a possibility because PA hasnt been slammed with the ads that OH and other battlegroud states have. In the end, it will be close but Obama is too strong there to lose.
Romney needs OH. The auto bailout comments will end up costing him the presidency.

I don't know what the ads are like in OH, but I do know there has been a nice amount of slam advertising going on here in PA.
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