The Blue Board

In response to Rocky, quote didn't work.

There are a couple things I would like to point out that you just overlook.

First, Michigan does have a proven contributor on the DL in Craig Roh. Roh had much more impact than Heiniger who is one of the 3 we lose. I would say the big jump in Michigan's schedule is mostly due to our nonconference games. Playing Bama and then ND on the road is what makes it significantly tougher. The Big Ten strength of schedule will be pretty much the same.

I love how you mention playing Wisconsin 2 times but fail to mention that you also played FAU who ranked 119 in Scoring O, played a FCS team that wasn't even a good FCS team and played Indiana who ranked like 101 offensively. The only team Michigan played that ranks that low offensively was Minnesota who MSU also played. I think that pretty much balances out the fact you played Wisconsin and we didn't. Also love how you mention the IL and NW games for us which we won both games by double digits and yet fail to mention the Minnesota game for MSU which you only won by 7 at home. By the way Minnesota was much worse than IL and NW. Also, MSU lost their 2 touchest road games in ND and Nebraska. Both by larger margins than what Michigan lost their 2 road games.

I still can't believe you are unwilling to give Michigan's D any credit. Scoring D, especially at the end of the year when its all said and done, is what really matters. You fail to realize there is more than 1 way to do things. Yes MSU's D looked more dominant at times. Was much more aggressive. But that also led to MSU giving up more Big plays that led to them giving up points. Michigan played a much more bend but don't break and great red zone defense. When it comes down to it Michigan's D was just as effective as MSU's and that is just a statistical fact that you cannot deny.

Without reading the 6 pages of any MSU thread, I fully expect LT to go Beast Mode. MSU defense will be Solid. You should handle a rebuilding Boise with ease. The Irish are always a toss-up but those games will obviously not have a bearing on the B1G. I think our game will be the one that determines the league winner. It will be in Ann Arbor and now it will be OUR turn to come off a bye. Can't wait

Sorry, wasn't trying to discount Roh, I meant a contributor to step in to fill one of the open DL spots. I don't know a proven back-up DT on your roster, and the DEs are . . . Brink? Clark?

UM fans love to point out that scoring D matters more than anything else. The problem is how you guys arrived at that scoring D. You did play better defense than in 2010, but it wasn't as drastically improved as the scoring D stats made it seem. As I said, your 20 fumble recoveries went a long way towards that number, as well as missing the toughest O in the conference. You can't count on those fumble recoveries going forward; you need to improve the peripherals, like a rush D that was barely top 40 (39th).

MSU's defense didn't have a weak spot this past year, ranking in the top 18 in every major defensive category: Total D (6th), Sacks (7th), Rush D (9th), Scoring D (10th), Pass D (11th), Tackles for Loss (14th) and Passing Efficiency D (18th).

Michigan's, in contrast: Scoring D (6th), Pass D (16th), Total D (17th), Sacks (29th), Passing Efficiency D (36th), Rush D (39th), Tackles for Loss (68th).

If you'd like to talk about giving up big plays, look no further than the 20 spot difference between your pass efficiency D and pass yardage D. It's a statistical fact that MSU's D was more efficient across the board, and didn't have the random fumbles to stop opponents drives (8 fumble recoveries for MSU vs. 20 for UM). The Spartan's defense is therefore better poised to carry over its production from 2011 to 2012.

Michigan needs to shore up its pass D, snag more INTs (only 9 on the year) and really improve its rush defense. The scoring D was elite, no doubt about it, but unless you guys improve in the other categories, you won't be seeing it that high next season.

You aren't coming off a bye, unless you consider Illinois at home two weeks after your bye week as an additional bye . . .

http://www.mgoblue.com/sports/m-footbl/sched/mich-m-footbl-sched.html

Um.. Temple didn't play a similar schedule. MSU and UM did.

Playing an average of the 60th best offenses and the 66th best offenses is not any distinction to hang your hat on. Pointing to the Wisco games also fails to take into account the extra games MSU played against bad offenses (4 against lower than 100 offenses, coutning Youngstown, Michigan played 2 sub-100 offenses). This is why averages are important. How much were MSU's defensive numbers pumped up by playing those extra horrible offenses?

They played a very similar schedule of average offenses.

(EDIT - good point Maize&Blue, the average of 60th ranked offenses is incomplete. I wonder if UM played tougher offenses on average?)

Anyway, my point was that scoring matters more than yards.

My bad..I thought it was a bye.

What do I count them as? I used CFBstats for the rankings and they only ranked FBS teams. YSU averaged 39.2 points against FCS competition alone and scored 6 points against MSU.

Obviously I am not going to rank them as the #11 offense because of that, but at the same time I don't believe they are the #121 offense either.

They were not a good FCS team. I would say probably somewhere in the 80 to 100 range.

According to the NCAA website they were #6 in the FCS in scoring offense and #5 in total offense. Probably not a good team, I agree, but probably not a terrible offense.

I highly doubt they could put up those points playing against FBS defenses every game. To rank 80th they would have to put up 24.5 points a game. I think that its reasonable to put them in the 80 to 100 range.

So...let's agree to use average of EVERY team that makes up the defensive stats.

They played a similar schedule and UM may have played tougher offenses.

Back to the OP . . . . I'll actually answer the question.

Here are the reasons MSU should NOT be the favorite in the Big 10:

1) Unknown at QB, the most important single player on the field, along with all of the receiver positions; and

2) Plays the other main competitor for the division (Michigan) on the road, as well as the top 2 Leaders teams (@Wisky, tOSU at home); and

3) Doesn't have a bye until after week 10. Wear-down factor has hit MSU in each of the past 2 years in bad road Ls around weeks 9 and 10 (@Iowa in '10, @Nebraska in '11).

The reasons MSU should be the favorite in the Big 10:

1) Most of the defense (18 of the top 22) returns off of an across-the-board nationally elite unit, along with a pair of very good specialists.

2) Gets 3 Legends home games, including the other 2 threats to the division title (Nebraska and Iowa).

3) Returns 4/5 OL and 2 more OL who were opening day starters in '11, along with the top RB from '11, forming a nice security blanket for the new QB.

What is the topic now?

How Michigan is better than MSU by some stat, inference, weather systems impacting play, bumblee uniforms, games against other teams, or any other made-up variable not using the actual score of the game?

I thought we covered this already.