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Dankydank
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Dankydank
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pstrjohn ●
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Dankydank said...
THIS IS A COPY AND PAST OF IT. Great read..
By Kevin Scarbinsky, Birmingham News
BIRMINGHAM, Alabama - Stop me if you've heard this one before.
If it comes down to Alabama or Oregon, you should give the nod to the Ducks because they lost to LSU on a neutral field.
Ha.
Oregon lost to LSU by 13 points. LSU took the lead for good late in the second quarter, scored 24 straight points from that point until early in the fourth quarter and led by 20 until Oregon scored a meaningless touchdown with 13 seconds left.
Alabama lost to LSU by three points in overtime. Alabama didn't trail for a second until LSU kicked the winning field goal.
One-loss Oregon over one-loss Alabama? Good one.
Now try this one.
If it's either Alabama or Oklahoma, you have to go with the Sooners because they'll be conference champions and the Crimson Tide won't be.
Seriously? This is especially funny in support of a Big 12 school in general and Oklahoma in particular.
In 2001, Nebraska lost to Colorado 62-36 to end the regular season. The Cornhuskers, who didn't win their division and didn't play in the Big 12 Championship Game, still ended up in the BCS Championship Game. Where they lost to Miami.
In 2003, Oklahoma made it to the Big 12 Championship Game, where it got beat 35-7 by Kansas State. The Sooners still found themselves in the BCS Championship Game. Where they lost to LSU.
The subject has been debated for years, but the BCS has declined to make winning a conference title a requirement for playing in the national title game. Why hold Alabama to a standard that doesn't exist?
Kevin Scarbinsky is a columnist for The Birmingham News. His column is published on Sunday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday.
Back to the present, there is one strike against the Sooners this season that's so egregious that no voter should rationalize it or forgive it. That is, if every game counts, as the BCS propagandists want us to believe.
Oklahoma's one loss is a three-point home loss to Texas Tech. How bad is that loss? How bad is Tech? Since that shocker, Tommy Tuberville and his Red Raiders are 0-3 by a combined score of 159-33. They're 5-5 overall and 2-5 in the Big 12.
The only way the Sooners might be able to untie that anchor from their resume would be to defeat No. 2 Oklahoma State in the neighborhood of 66-6.
Otherwise, one-loss Oklahoma over one-loss Alabama? Are you kidding me? Guess one bad joke deserves another.
Welcome to the Bowl Championship Series, which turns greed into gold and otherwise rational observers into candidates for a remake of the Three Stooges.
There's one more attempt at humor making the rounds less than three weeks before Selection Sunday. It goes like this: Alabama would be at a disadvantage in any pose-off with Oklahoma or Oregon because of style points.
Style points? Is this college football or a fashion show?
Anyone who believes that LSU against Oklahoma for the first time or Oregon for the second time would be a more entertaining game than an Alabama-LSU rematch needs a quick history lesson.
How did the SEC win the last five BCS Championship Games? By putting a chokehold on one high-powered and entertaining offense after another. None of the five worthy opponents scored more than 24 points. Each of them was held below its average point total for the season, four of them at least 18 points below.
Defense still wins championships. For all its firepower, Auburn wouldn't have beaten Oregon last year without it.
Through 10 games this season, this Alabama defense has been the best in college football since at least 1992. If the Crimson Tide gets penalized because it's elite at preventing points rather than scoring them, that would be the biggest joke of all.
This post was edited by SmithDawg48 on 11/15/2011 at 1:20 PM
SmithDawg48
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manbearpig7 ●
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manbearpig7 said...
It just not going to happen, I guess we can all pretend it will for a few weeks if you guys want but the people that actually now the interworking of the polls and the formulas for all seven or eight computers simply do not think OU passing Alabama is a real possibility. Here are the odds to WIN the BCS championship you can find these all over the place now but these are from the Vegas Hilton… LSU - 5/7 UA - 8/5 Oklahoma State – 9/2 Oklahoma – 10/1 Oregon – 10/1 Arkansas – 18/1
So Vegas believes that Alabama has a more likely chance to win the BCS Championship than all other teams mentioned not named LSU in the field combined. If you assume that Oregon, OSU/OU, and Bama OU all have an equal chance to PLAY in the national championship (so 33% each), well then Bama would have to have well over a 100% chance of winning the actual game to justify 8/5 which is obviously impossible. How do you justify +160 if you have a 33% chance to begin, hell you can’t justify 50% unless UA would be a heavy heavy favorite over LSU in New Orleans. Do the math. So according to Vegas (which is pretty much the best unbiased source out there by a huge margin), Bama has a much better chance of getting into the game than any of those teams. Vegas clearly 100% thinks a rematch between Alabama and LSU is the most likely scenario, but hey they might just not have the foresight of the 247 posters with all those computer models and algorithms and what not.
psubills62
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manbearpig7 said...
It just not going to happen, I guess we can all pretend it will for a few weeks if you guys want but the people that actually now the interworking of the polls and the formulas for all seven or eight computers simply do not think OU passing Alabama is a real possibility. Here are the odds to WIN the BCS championship you can find these all over the place now but these are from the Vegas Hilton… LSU - 5/7 UA - 8/5 Oklahoma State – 9/2 Oklahoma – 10/1 Oregon – 10/1 Arkansas – 18/1
So Vegas believes that Alabama has a more likely chance to win the BCS Championship than all other teams mentioned not named LSU in the field combined. If you assume that Oregon, OSU/OU, and Bama OU all have an equal chance to PLAY in the national championship (so 33% each), well then Bama would have to have well over a 100% chance of winning the actual game to justify 8/5 which is obviously impossible. How do you justify +160 if you have a 33% chance to begin, hell you can’t justify 50% unless UA would be a heavy heavy favorite over LSU in New Orleans. Do the math. So according to Vegas (which is pretty much the best unbiased source out there by a huge margin), Bama has a much better chance of getting into the game than any of those teams. Vegas clearly 100% thinks a rematch between Alabama and LSU is the most likely scenario, but hey they might just not have the foresight of the 247 posters with all those computer models and algorithms and what not.
pstrjohn ●
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Turn2 ●
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psubills62 said...
Just so you know, there's a big difference between saying "the odds are against" and "it's never going to happen." After all, Vegas had Bama beating LSU by 5 at home. How'd that turn out, exactly?
You also don't consider that Oklahoma has a great chance to lose. Those odds don't necessarily accurately reflect what will happen if Oklahoma wins out.
If you want to use the Vegas odds as a "this is what is likely to happen" argument, fine. But it's dumb to just sit there and say "just not going to happen." Just because something is the most likely scenario doesn't mean it will happen.
manbearpig7 ●
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pstrjohn said...
Hey I know.....let's ask Danny Sheridan. I bet his source has told him already who is going regardless of who wins or loses. Do you think he would say? Maybe if we get him a spot on FB or OTL he might say....what cha think?
Vegas is not non biased. It is motivated by whatever will make people bet. The only line that they are truly concerned with it the bottom. They have no way of knowing who the voters will vote for it is total guess work. Calculated yes, but still guessing the same as everybody on this board.
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manbearpig7 said...
It just not going to happen, I guess we can all pretend it will for a few weeks if you guys want but the people that actually now the interworking of the polls and the formulas for all seven or eight computers simply do not think OU passing Alabama is a real possibility. Here are the odds to WIN the BCS championship you can find these all over the place now but these are from the Vegas Hilton… LSU - 5/7 UA - 8/5 Oklahoma State – 9/2 Oklahoma – 10/1 Oregon – 10/1 Arkansas – 18/1
So Vegas believes that Alabama has a more likely chance to win the BCS Championship than all other teams mentioned not named LSU in the field combined. If you assume that Oregon, OSU/OU, and Bama OU all have an equal chance to PLAY in the national championship (so 33% each), well then Bama would have to have well over a 100% chance of winning the actual game to justify 8/5 which is obviously impossible. How do you justify +160 if you have a 33% chance to begin, hell you can’t justify 50% unless UA would be a heavy heavy favorite over LSU in New Orleans. Do the math. So according to Vegas (which is pretty much the best unbiased source out there by a huge margin), Bama has a much better chance of getting into the game than any of those teams. Vegas clearly 100% thinks a rematch between Alabama and LSU is the most likely scenario, but hey they might just not have the foresight of the 247 posters with all those computer models and algorithms and what not.
SoonerNatChamps
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manbearpig7 said...
In my opinion this is a little bit of apples and oranges but I respect your post. The spread is essentially a line between two teams and betters can bet either way. Vegas plays the middle man and doesn’t take a position but takes the juice. In the odds, Vegas clearly takes a position which makes it more meaningful I think.
Frankly I think it’s a more predictable how the computers and voters will shake out if you study it religiously and calculate every scenario like Vegas does than to predict whether or not Cade Foster will miss 4 FGs. Now it can be argued that Vegas has better information than the public on both accounts but understanding the polls, I think they have a huge advantage over the public. Seeing that Vegas is taking bets on Alabama at a 40% chance of winning the NC when the likely opponent is a team that Alabama has already played to a virtual coin flip at home. I don’t know call me crazy but I think Vegas is reading the BCS tea leaves better than anybody else can and concluding that if either OSU or LSU losses, odds are very strong that Alabama is in the NC game because we know UA can't get in without a loss from one of those two teams. Much much stronger than OU. There is a lot of football left and LSU is heavy favorites to the FIELD here. That is just crazy to me.
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SoonerNatChamps said...
But you do realize OU's kicker missed easy fg's as well....not just Alabama. 5 starters out, several turnovers, 2 missed fg's, offense didn't get started until the middle of the 3rd quarter and by then the defense was gassed. OU fullback drops an easy td catch which led to a missed fg...and OU loses by 3. Should they have lost? No but for everything that could possibly go wrong goes wrong and lose by 3? Wow.
If anything that kind of changes things is the loss to our starting runningback and AA receiver
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Will OU jump Alabama if they win out?