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plausible chaos scenario

  • 1. USC runs the table, beating Notre Dame hanidly, and just edging out an otherwise undefeated Oregon in the PAC-12CG
    2. Texas beats Kansas St
    3. Florida St and Clemson win out
    4. Ohio St beats Michigan, Stanford beats ucla
    5. Bama wins out
    6. Same as above except Georgia beats Bama

    Who goes to the title game?

    Cases for and against:

    FSU 1 loss in a close game, but against a bad team. Would have wins over 2 final top-10 ranked teams. champion of what is considered a weak conference, and would have played the weakest overall SOS of the contenders.

    Oregon: Would have wins over 4 or 5 final ranked teams, which would be more than any of the contenders. Would not be a conference champion, and would have lost their last game of the season. PAC-12 would have by far the most impressive OOC wins, with wins over possibly 5 ranked teams, 1 possible top-10 ranked team.

    Bama: Only loss is a close game vs a top-10 team. Champion of what is perceived to be the toughest conference, but would have wins over only 2 or 3 final ranked teams, though 1-2 of them would be top-10 ranked teams.

    Kansas St. Champion of what is considered by the computers as the toughest conference. Would have wins over only 2 possibly 3 final ranked teams, with one of those possibly in the top-10. Would have lost their last game of the season, but would be against what is considered a "hot" team, similar to Oregon.

    Georgia (in the case they beat Bama). Would have wins over only 2 ranked teams, but both are likely top-10 teams. Champion of the sec, loss is to a good team, but the loss is by 33 points.

    Notre Dame. Would have lost their last game. Win over only 1 ranked opponent, but that opponent is a possible top-10 opponent.

    Who goes to the bcs title game in this scenario.

    IMO it should/would be Oregon and Alabama, but PAC-12 teams routinely get the short end of the stick in these type of situations. There would be noise for LSU out there as well, but that would be a travesty.

    If Georgia wins the SECCG, I don't think that they should be included, and in that case I think it should be Oregon and Kansas St, just based on the entire resume, though I would prefer Oregon vs Florida St

    Florida St would have good as a case as anyone, conference champion who finished the season strong, but I think that their computer score would hurt them too much. They would have to be close to a unanimous #1 in both polls most likely to make it in. So if

    Unbowed, Unbent, Unbroken

    MJRuffalo ●

  • Lots of speculation as to where teams stay ranked after losses in that post. If Kansas State, Notre Dame, and Oregon all lose a game, a 1-loss SEC Champion will be in the BCSNC. The opponent would be either Kansas State or Oregon. If Oregon ran the table and lost in the Pac-12 Championship game, it might be the SEC Champion against Oregon (Oregon would be 12-0 in regular season). But we have all seen how a late loss can be devastating, but we have also seen Oklahoma lost the Big 12 Championship game and still go to the BCSNC game.

    My guess is Alabama/Georgia winner vs. Oregon or Kansas State. Notre Dame is out if they lose a game. Florida State can't recover from their earlier loss on that schedule.

    This post was edited by SkullyMaroo on 11/16/2012 at 4:49 PM

    signature image signature image signature image

    SkullyMaroo ●

  • well then i for one say we petition the ncaa and congress to allow osu in the n/c...

    they would be the only undefeated team, why not?

    just kiddin of course (damn athletic dept. shoulda took the bowl ban last yr, oh well!!!!)

    a2brutus ●

  • Of the main factors of this scenario, we are halfway there with Oregon and Kansas St losses. Now we need USC to beat Notre Dame, and Florida St to beat Florida.

    Unbowed, Unbent, Unbroken

    MJRuffalo ●

  • I think you're underestimating what a Clemson win over SCar and a FSU win over UF would do to our computer SOS

    TNoles813

  • Stopped reading at USC beating ND handily....

    beeds7

  • Stopped reading after this gem:

    "Kansas St. Would have lost their last game of the season, but would be against what is considered a "hot" team, similar to Oregon.

    If we win out and beat an overrated Aggy team in the Cotton Bowl, I still would not consider us "hot".

    VaHorn ●

  • LSU would go

    LScootU

  • T-Noles813 said...

    I think you're underestimating what a Clemson win over SCar and a FSU win over UF would do to our computer SOS

    It would certainly bump it up, but not nearly enough.

    Unbowed, Unbent, Unbroken

    MJRuffalo ●

  • though from looking at the polls today, it is pretty clear cut that Oregon will be in, and it won't be close. They need us to beat Notre Dame in a bad way.

    Unbowed, Unbent, Unbroken

    MJRuffalo ●

  • MJRuffalo said...

    though from looking at the polls today, it is pretty clear cut that Oregon will be in, and it won't be close. They need us to beat Notre Dame in a bad way.

    Word on Barkley?

    signature image signature image signature image

    "A political call, the fall guy accord...We can't afford to be neutral on a moving train..."

    BamaLivesFootba ●

  • BamaLivesFootba said...

    Word on Barkley?

    last I heard it was a separated shoulder, won't play. We can win with Wittek.

    Unbowed, Unbent, Unbroken

    MJRuffalo ●

  • MJRuffalo said...

    last I heard it was a separated shoulder, won't play. We can win with Wittek.

    Good stuff

    signature image signature image signature image

    "A political call, the fall guy accord...We can't afford to be neutral on a moving train..."

    BamaLivesFootba ●

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