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Bubble Watch!

  • I do this thread on the MD board and brought it here last season so lets do it again.

    68 Bids: 31 Auto Bids, 37 At-Large Bids

    Definite 1-Bid Ligs (18): SWAC, Big Sky, Big South, MEAC, Southern, Atlantic Sun, America East, Colonial, Northeast, Big West, Summit, MAC, MAAC, Horizon, Ivy, Patriot, CUSA, WAC

    Likely 1-Bid Ligs (5): Southland, Ohio Valley, Sun Belt

    Locks (36):
    ACC: Duke, Miami, NCST, North Carolina
    Big East: Louisville, Syracuse, Marquette, Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Villanova
    Big 10: Indiana, Michigan, Michigan St, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Illinois
    Big 12: Kansas, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, Oklahoma
    SEC: Florida, Missouri
    Pac 12: Arizona, Oregon, UCLA, California, Colorado
    Others: New Mexico, UNLV, Gonzaga, Butler, VCU, Saint Louis, Creighton

    On the bubble (9 Bids)

    Maryland: 20-10 (8-9) RPI- 86 SOS- 107

    ACC
    Virginia: 20-10 (10-7) RPI- 73 SOS- 123

    Big East
    Cincinnati: 20-10 (8-9) RPI- 48 SOS- 25
    Providence: 17-12 (9-8) RPI- 79 SOS- 56

    Big 10
    Iowa: 19-11 (8-9) RPI- 75 SOS- 98

    Big 12
    Iowa State: 19-10 (9-7) RPI- 53 SOS- 65
    Baylor: 16-14 (8-10) RPI- 71 SOS- 33

    SEC
    Kentucky: 20-10 (11-6) RPI- 54 SOS- 72
    Tennessee: 18-11 (10-7) RPI- 56 SOS- 53
    Mississippi: 22-8 (11-6) RPI- 58 SOS- 131

    Mountain West
    Colorado State: 21-7 (10-5) RPI- 14 SOS- 23
    San Diego State: 19-8 (9-6) RPI- 31 SOS- 26
    Boise State: 18-9 (8-7) RPI- 42 SOS- 59

    Atlantic 10
    La Salle: 21-7 (11-4) RPI- 40 SOS- 93
    Temple: 22-8 (10-5) RPI- 43 SOS- 68

    Others
    Wichita State: 24-7 (12-6) RPI- 36 SOS- 94
    St. Mary's: 25-5 (14-2) RPI- 34 SOS- 108
    Memphis: 26-4 (15-0) RPI- 18 SOS- 75
    Middle Tennessee State: 27-4 (19-1) RPI- 25 SOS- 127
    Belmont: 22-6 (14-2) RPI- 22 SOS- 87

    This post has been edited 13 times, most recently by BklynTerp on 3/9/2013 at 12:00 PM

    BklynTerp

  • Obviously this is just my opinion and theres going to be some stuff people won't agree with (Minnesota being a lock for one) but this is a good thread just to track the bubble games and for some bracketology talk too.

    Must win games tonight for some bubble teams:
    St. Johns vs. USF, UMass @ St. Bonaventure, Ole Miss @ South Carolina, Kentucky @ Vandy, Alabama vs Miss St, Southern Miss vs UTEP, Arizona St vs Washington St

    Then some of the more interesting matchups:
    Colorado St @ UNLV- Winner here is pretty much set but both these teams should make the field

    Iowa St @ Baylor- Very similar profiles, both teams have 3 big opportunities left even after this game, not sure who to root for

    Air Force @ Boise St- Air Force is pretty much a bubble team if they win, Boise would drop to 4-7 in MWC with a loss so they probably shouldn't do that

    Minnesota @ Ohio St- I already have Minnesota as a lock but they would certainly be that with a win here. Ohio States profile is light despite being ranked #18. They should be fine but after this game they finish with Michigan St, @NW, @Indiana and Illinois. I'd win this one if I were them.

    BklynTerp

  • OSU is a lock IMO. I know they havent been playing too well as of late but still in there. Nice list though

    OldOaken247 on twitter..... I say a lot of stuff you wont care about.

    Oaken

  • Im moving Ohio St up if they win tonight. Their profile is pretty light, only 4 top 100 wins, only 2 top 50 wins.

    BklynTerp

  • Bklyn I think our game at the end of the season is going to be winner take all, barring one of us making a huge run in the ACCT

    signature image signature image

    @WahoozeMike

    MikeV

  • MikeV said...

    Bklyn I think our game at the end of the season is going to be winner take all, barring one of us making a huge run in the ACCT

    A UVA poster on our site said something along those lines. Made me think of this scenario

    It won't work out like this but its certainly possible:
    Maryland- Wins over Clemson, @GT, @Wake, UNC 22-8 (10-7)
    Virginia- Wins over GT, @BC losses to Duke, @FSU 20-10 (10-7)

    Maryland's resume wins- Duke, UNC, NCST
    Virginia's resume wins- @Wisconsin, UNC, NCST

    ACC Standings:
    Miami
    Duke
    UNC (11-6)
    NCST (11-6)
    MD (10-7)
    UVA (10-7)
    FSU (9-8)

    That last weekend UNC is home against Duke, NCST @ FSU, MD @ UVA on Sunday. Would be pretty awesome

    BklynTerp

  • Let me watch the ACC tournament before I weigh in on your thread Terp.

    SDWolverine

  • As for tonights slate:
    La Salle @ Temple- La Salle closes in on lock status with a win, while Temple is sitting right on the edge of a bid in most brackets. Big opportunity for both teams

    Middle Tennessee State vs South Alabama- MTSU owns just two top 100 wins with the best being Ole Miss at home. They shouldn't be involved for an at-large if necessary but you never know with the committee. A loss in any of their last 4 would probably kill any at-large hopes.

    Illinois vs Penn St- Illini are in fine shape right now, but losing this one would not be wise

    Cal @ Oregon- Oregon closes in on lock status with a win while Cal has quietly positioned themselves for a bid.

    Colorado vs Utah- The Buffs have strong "computer numbers" with just a 7-6 conference record and road trips to Stanford and Cal up next this is one they need to win.

    Stanford vs Oregon State- Simply put the Cardinal can't afford a loss in this one

    BYU @ St. Mary's- Neither team has a top 50 win. While they won't get one here it will still be a big win over a fellow bubble team for whoever is victorious tonight.

    Arkansas vs. Georgia- Arky has wins over Oklahoma, UF and Missouri, but they can't afford a loss in a game like this

    BklynTerp

  • where is Bierce? I think he was a Texas poster and I remember him being pretty active in this thread last year

    BklynTerp

  • BklynTerp said...

    where is Bierce? I think he was a Texas poster and I remember him being pretty active in this thread last year

    Forgot about him

    OldOaken247 on twitter..... I say a lot of stuff you wont care about.

    Oaken

  • BklynTerp said...

    A UVA poster on our site said something along those lines. Made me think of this scenario

    It won't work out like this but its certainly possible: Maryland- Wins over Clemson, @GT, @Wake, UNC 22-8 (10-7) Virginia- Wins over GT, @BC losses to Duke, @FSU 20-10 (10-7)

    Maryland's resume wins- Duke, UNC, NCST Virginia's resume wins- @Wisconsin, UNC, NCST

    ACC Standings: Miami Duke UNC (11-6) NCST (11-6) MD (10-7) UVA (10-7) FSU (9-8)

    That last weekend UNC is home against Duke, NCST @ FSU, MD @ UVA on Sunday. Would be pretty awesome

    I'm feeling pretty good about our chances against Duke. I think we did a good job with Len, who ate Plumlee's lunch when you played them. I never know what or who to expect from us these days though. You're probably the same way. I think we'll both find our way in though.

    signature image signature image

    @WahoozeMike

    MikeV

  • SLU at Butler tonight is a huge game for Jim Crews (former Evansville coach) and team.

    OldOaken247 on twitter..... I say a lot of stuff you wont care about.

    Oaken

  • Yea, Im looking forward to that. They should be fine but they are a lock with a win tonight.

    BklynTerp

  • The only way Iowa gets in is by winning 4 of their last 5 (losing only at IU) and then winning 1 (more than likely need 2) BTT games. Its doable if they get paired with Northwestern and Wisconsin or maybe MSU. I just don't like a matchup with Michigan or Indiana right now. At least Iowa is back near the bubble after this last decade of suck.

    signature image signature image signature image

    "I was brought in here to change the culture. I'm going to coach with passion" - Fran McCaffery.

    UI2015

  • Oaken said...

    SLU at Butler tonight is a huge game for Jim Crews (former Evansville coach) and team.

    Yes it was huge. Good call Oak. Did you have it televised? Nothing out there that I could find.

    SDWolverine

  • SDWolverine said...

    Yes it was huge. Good call Oak. Did you have it televised? Nothing out there that I could find.

    It was on espnU

    OldOaken247 on twitter..... I say a lot of stuff you wont care about.

    Oaken

  • Iowa and Southern Miss are our first bubble casualties of the day

    BklynTerp

  • Bama is done. Blew a 10 point lead with two minutes left in regulation and lose in 3 OTs at LSU. Pathetic coaching job by Anthony Grant this year. We've lost so many games this year we had no business losing and today was no different. No excuse to not make the tourney with the amount of talent on the team and the current state of college basketball. I'm sick...

    signature image signature image signature image

    Koko B Ware43232

  • I know this thread is about the bubble watch, but how is Duke a 1 seed right now

    Jeff4SC

  • Jeff4SC said...

    I know this thread is about the bubble watch, but how is Duke a 1 seed right now

    Wins over UK, Minny, VCU, Louisville, Ohio State, Temple, NCST, UNC only losses on the road to Miami, MD and NCST. Not going to find many better profiles

    BklynTerp

  • BklynTerp said...

    Wins over UK, Minny, VCU, Louisville, Ohio State, Temple, NCST, UNC only losses on the road to Miami, MD and NCST. Not going to find many better profiles

    Don't forget the name matters too

    Jeff4SC

  • Jeff4SC said...

    Don't forget the name matters too

    This

    OldOaken247 on twitter..... I say a lot of stuff you wont care about.

    Oaken

  • BklynTerp said...

    where is Bierce? I think he was a Texas poster and I remember him being pretty active in this thread last year

    I've been crying all year, of course. I'll get involved here again. Things have been way too depressing, but I actually had started a pseudo-Bubble Watch/what if the Horns could finish strong thread on Hookem, but after last night's mess, even the slightest hope for a run vanished along with my dreams of a blissful existence with Princess Madeleine followed by 198 accidents with salad forks, resulting in our child ascending to the British Throne.

    bierce

  • Man, Cincy is in the midst of a horrible slide. Another loss today, this time by 21 @ ND. Cincy has some good OOC wins (ISU, Oregon, Alabama, Xavier) and some very good conference wins (Pitt, Marquette) and a pretty good conference win (Nova), but it has now lost 5 of its last 6 and looks to be at risk to make it 7 of its last 8. If it loses to UConn at home and Louisville on the road, it probably will need a conference tournament win over at least a bubble team to stay in the field.

    bierce

  • In the Big 12, put Baylor on the out. It has a really tough schedule left and has done nothing against the top half of the conference except lose. Seriously, it is 7-7 in the Big 12 (which is in a slightly down year) and 6 of the wins are against TCU (2), Texas Tech (2), Texas (1), and West Virginia (1). Baylor has to host KU and KSU and go to Morgantown and to Austin to face a bad Texas team that took it to OT in Waco without Kabongo. 9-9 would be an extremely lucky end for it with a win over OSU being the only victory over a team solidly in the field.

    However, ISU is probably in. The sweep of Baylor puts them clearly in the lead. Add the wins over OU and KSU, and they're good. ISU is unbeaten at home and has a shot at both KU and OSU in Hilton, so I suspect it will get a win there and will be safely in the field even before conference tournaments start.

    bierce

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