The last time Alabama didn't win more than 10 games in a regular season was 2010.

According to the over/under total set for the 2018 campaign by South Point Casino in Las Vegas, our friends in the desert aren't betting on the Crimson Tide finishing with fewer than 11 wins for the first time in eight years. Then again, they aren't exactly all in on UA winning 11 or more, either.

Instead, #TheMan is doing what "he" has done so many times before, placing a hook right in the middle of 10 and 11 victories.

On the surface, over 10.5 wins has the look of easy money. After all, we're talking about a season that will get underway with UA taking on a 26-point underdog in Louisville. From there, it's very possible that Alabama will be no less than a three-touchdown favorite over every opponent it faces prior to the start of November.

That "sure thing" line of thinking, of course, is how Vegas icons like Moe Green made their bones while the rest of us were going out with cheerleaders.

Still, the first eight games on the schedule beg the question: Prior to the November gauntlet of LSU-Mississippi State-Auburn, from whom is a real challenge (or two) going to come?

In September, Nick Saban's team will follow up the neutral site lid-lifter against UL with a pair of conference games -- Ole Miss and Texas A&M -- sandwiched between Sun Belt matchups with Arkansas State and Louisiana-Lafayette.

Oxford hasn't been the easiest of trips for Alabama since 2014, with the Rebels picking up a win over the Crimson Tide at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium four years ago before falling by less than a touchdown in 2016. As for Texas A&M, the Aggies will venture to Tuscaloosa with a new head coach in Jimbo Fisher and renewed hopes of taking the next step in the SEC West. Of the UA opponents set to visit Bryant-Denny Stadium this fall, A&M was the last to win there, riding Johnny Manziel to a 29-24 victory in 2012.

Looking ahead to October, the second month of the season will offer up three opponents -- Arkansas, Missouri and Tennessee -- who are a combined 0-24 against Saban-coached Alabama teams. Of the trio, Drew Lock and Mizzou figure to represent the strongest challenger of the bunch. Unfortunately for the Tigers, they're also the lone Alabama opponent that will visit Tuscaloosa in October.

That brings us to November, a month that has produced nine of Saban's 20 losses as UA head coach. Of that total, eight have come at the hands of Mississippi State (2007), LSU (2007, 2010 and 2011) and Auburn (2007, 2010, 2013 and 2017).

Of the traditional November triumvirate,  only LSU gets Alabama at home this time around. While no trip to Baton Rouge will ever be described as easy, it's also a place where the Crimson Tide hasn't lost since 2010. That leaves home contests against Mississippi State and Auburn.

With Nick Fitzgerald back at quarterback and State home to upper echelon, SEC lines of scrimmage, the Bulldogs could be a formidable opponent for a second-straight season. As for Auburn, the Tigers will also be built in such a way that will make them capable of winning for the first time at Bryant-Denny since 2010.

In addition to the opponents on the schedule, there's also history to consider. During his time at Alabama, Saban has had three teams (2008, 2009 and 2016) run the table in the regular season. Interestingly enough, two of those three teams are among the six he's had at UA that didn't win it all. Again, though, the magic number to cash on the over is 11.

Even if Auburn is the default loss assumption for Alabama this fall, who's the other opponent that will keep the Crimson Tide from going over the 10.5, something it hasn’t done just twice in Saban’s 11 years at the helm?

Beware that rusty hook, though. With that bit of advice given, you going over or under the 10.5?

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