2019 Football Season: Game by Game Analysis using 247 Ratings

2019 Football Season: Game by Game Analysis using 247 Ratings

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  • As we get right into the middle of the dead season, I thought it would interesting to take a look at the Gator's 2019 schedule and see which games are projected to be close and which ones the gators should have the edge and/or not have the edge based on the 247 Composite ratings for each team's projected starters. This analysis looks at the raw rating and an adjusted rating using the 247 Composite Ratings

    The Adjusted Rating is simply the Raw Score factored for what class the player is in (Freshman = 85%, Sophomore = 90%, Junior = 95%, and Senior = 100% of the raw ratings). Granted, there are probably hundreds of ways you could do this and multiple ways of accounting for experience, I understand that...but teams are applied with the same factors so whatever disagreements you might have with the factor, at least it impacts each team equally.

    Disclaimer - This is NOT an analysis that predicts the outcome, it is a talent evaluation that forms the starting point to determine where some of the potential match ups advantages and disadvantages might be during the game, and thus impact the game planning for both teams. It is simply a data point for consideration...

    Before we can do that, let's first do a quick deep dive into what we should expect to see differently transitioning from 2018 into 2019. To do that, you can see below a comparison of the 2018 Starters to the Projected Starters for 2019 as well as how the Position Groups compare from 2018 to 2019. The BLUE NAMES indicate a new starter.....The color shading indicates my belief that the position will improve as a result of that change (green) or potentially get worse (yellow). If you see a blue name, but no color shading, that indicates that the change is not expected to impact performance on field.

    *2019 Projected Gator Starters compared to 2018 Gator Starters*

    The purpose of the "Position Group" analysis is to break down the starting rosters into units (WR, DB, DL, OL, Front 7) and then try to determine which teams have an advantage against their opposing unit to determine where the advantage might be. As we get into the Week by Week analysis, we will group the units into 2 major Position Groups: Passing Game (WR vs DB) & Rushing Game (OL vs Front 7) in order to determine which match ups favor which team. We do this for both teams, on both sides of the ball. Any position group with an adjusted rating higher than 0.025 is perceived to have the advantage.

    Let's break down the 2019 & 2018 Gator into position groups and see what is expected to be different:

    As expected, almost every position group has improved from 2018...except the offensive line! However, I should point out that while the adjusted rating of 0.847 for the 2019 Offensive Line is lower than the 2018 Offensive Line (0.861)...it is not the lowest rating the line has had over the recent past (granted, that is not saying much).

    * 2014 - 0.910 Adjusted Rating
    * 2015 - 0.802 Adjusted Rating
    * 2016 - 0.800 Adjusted Rating
    * 2017 - 0.795 Adjusted Rating
    * 2018 - 0.861 Adjusted Rating

    All that to say, this may be a "step back" from 2018...but it shouldn't be as bad as 2015-2017...at least not on paper. In fact, I think one could argue that last year's line had a disadvantage that this year's line will not have in that they were learning a new offense, under a new coach, with all new schemes....while the 2019 offensive line my not have a lot of game experience, they have at least been in this system for a full year and 2 off seasons. I suspect that this years OL will start the season better than they did last year (because they are more familiar with the offense) but probably won't finish as strong as the OL did last year (because they are not as experienced)...but that is more speculation than anything else...

    *Week By Week Analysis*

    Based on the Post Spring Projected Starters (according to 247 post spring depth charts) I was able to compare all of the teams on the Gator's schedule to get a "tentative" view as to what these match up might look like. Obviously there is a lot that can change between now and the start of the season....like fall practice....but for now, here is how things shape up.....

    *Week 1 - Florida vs Miami (3-0 EDGE FLORIDA)*

    The conventional wisdom coming into this game is that the defensive front for Miami is the strength of the team..the analysis indicates that to be the case too as the 0.864 Adjust rating is the highest rated group for the Hurricanes....but will it be an advantage over the Florida offensive line? On papers, they look pretty evenly matched and it would appear that Florida's offense actually has the overall advantage ...especially in the passing game. The passing game for Florida has 3 starting receivers, all highly rated 4 Star talents and all seniors. While Florida's defense is evenly matched with Miami's Offense there is a slight advantage for the Gator's secondary against that Hurricane passing attack.

    *Week 2 - Florida vs TN Martin (6-0 EDGE FLORIDA)*
    Cupcake game, not point in evaluating this one....

    *Week 3 - Florida @ Kentucky (2-1 EDGE FLORIDA)*

    Different than a year ago, I strongly suspect Florida will not have 20+ missed tackles and will not be missing Reese from the starting line up! Florida's offense has a significant advantage over Kentucky's defense, mostly coming from the passing game as the Florida Receivers out rate the Kentucky Secondary by 0.126 (which is the difference between a highly rated 4* and a low rated 3*). On Defense for the Gators it is a draw, with a slight edge going to the Kentucky Offensive Line which will return all 5 starters from a year ago.

    *Week 4 - Florida vs Tennessee (2-1 EDGE FLORIDA)*

    Florida's offense has the edge against the Tennessee Defense, especially in the passing game where once again the experience and talent of the Florida Receivers outmatches an inexperienced Tennessee Secondary by 0.110. On Defense for Florida, the teams are well balanced, but Tennessee does have a slight advantage in the passing game, but this is a case were I think Florida's secondary will outplay their adjusted rating. In addition, the question in that match up comes down to if Tennessee's QB will be able to exploit the (on paper) advantage...I suspect not.

    *Week 5 - Florida vs Towson (6-0 EDGE FLORIDA)*
    Cupcake game, not point in evaluating this one....

    *Week 6 - Florida vs Auburn (1-1 DRAW)*

    As you can see above, these teams are pretty evenly matched, with Auburn's defensive front having a considerable advantage over Florida's Offensive Line. Florida's Receivers have an equally large advantage over Auburn's secondary. Given that this game is a draw on paper, the tipping point usually comes down to the coaching staffs.....and in my 100% biased opinion that advantage goes to Florida. Of course, you never know which Auburn team will show up, but I still think Florida will be prepared to throw some unique looks at an Auburn freshman QB with little to no experience. Plus I will be at this game with my Auburn Cheering Brother...so we have to win this one!

    *Week 7 - Florida @ LSU (1-2 EDGE for LSU)*

    This is going to be a difficult game for the Gators. LSU's defense is stacked with elite talent (Average Raw Rating of 0.972) and Florida is likely to struggle to run the ball. Florida's receivers have a slight advantage over LSU's secondary, but will Franks have progressed enough to exploit it? The fact that this game will be in LSU also is not helping the Gator's much. Low scoring game, but I suspect that LSU likely pulls this one out.

    *Week 8 - Florida @ South Carolina (3-1 EDGE FLORIDA)*

    Florida's offense should be able to move the ball via the passing game...once again taking advantage of an experienced receiving group going up against an inexperienced secondary. Florida's Defense draws with SC's Offense, with SC having a slight edge in the passing game and Florida having a slight edge in the rushing game. The main issue that concerns me about this game is that it will be in South Carolina (back to back road games) and it is coming off the LSU game....

    *Week 9 - Florida vs Georgia (2-2 DRAW - Coaching Edge to Florida)*

    Based on the numbers, this should be an offensive shoot out. Both teams have the edge over the opposing defenses. The question here will be which quarterback can better exploit that...usually I would give that edge to Fromm, but I also think Henderson, Wilson and Dean are far better than anything he will face all year...so it is likely going to come down to how much the Safeties for Florida can do their job!

    I'm giving the coaching edge to Florida, I am just not sold in Kirby's game day management and I think Florida will be motivated to get this in the win column!

    *Week 10 - Florida vs Vanderbilt (6-0 EDGE FLORIDA)*

    The only thing that worries me here is RB Vaughn for Vanderbilt, remember the day he had last year before leaving the game in the first quarter due to an injury? Aside from that, this should be a blow out (but not in a "counting your chicken's kind of way)! ....next....

    Week 11 - Florida @ Missouri (4-0 EDGE FLORIDA)

    Florida holds the edge on Offense and Defense and the area that Florida's defense was even with Missouri on was the passing game and I am not convinced that Kelly Bryant is an established enough passer that this is not an advantage to Florida...especially given our secondary. Having said that, this does give Missouri an dual threat QB and the Gator's defenses have struggled with that in the past...still Florida should be able to get over the Missouri hump this year!

    *Week 12 - Florida vs Florida State (1-2 EDGE FLORIDA STATE)*

    Top 5 classes for the past few seasons have left that Florida State roster with a ton of talent. Offensively for Florida, it is a draw with FSU having the edge in the rushing defense, but Florida having the edge in the passing game. Florida State's receivers (on paper) outmatch our secondary, but I believe this another case where the ratings are a bit deceptive...plus factor in that FSU is a hot mess at QB right now and I give this edge for Florida.

    This will be a home game for Florida and they will be particularly motivated to take the Florida In State Sweep..Florida wins in spite of the match up numbers.

    *Summary / Conclusion*

    * 3-0 CLEAR EDGE FLORIDA GAMES (UT Martin, Towson, Vanderbilt)
    * 2-0 HEAVY EDGE FLORIDA GAMES (Missouri, Miami)
    * 2-1 SLIGHT EDGE FLORIDA GAMES (Kentucky, Tennessee, South Carolina)
    * 1-1 EVEN CONTEST GAMES (Georgia, Auburn)
    * 1-1 DISADVANTAGE GAMES (LSU, FSU)

    Nothing every goes as you expect...but I can see 9-3 or 10-2 coming and it probably comes down to that away game in South Carolina (coming off the LSU game) as to which one we will be.

  • Discussion
  • Thanks for this. I enjoyed reading it

  • Nice work, thanks!

  • I can see a range of 8-4 to 10-2. Next year worries me greatly

  • Perdidokeygator said... (original post)

    I can see a range of 8-4 to 10-2. Next year worries me greatly

    I see us going no worse than 9-3 next year honestly.

  • Perdidokeygator said... (original post)

    I can see a range of 8-4 to 10-2. Next year worries me greatly

    What worries you about next year? We swap Miami with a cupcake and Auburn for Ole miss....we get LSU at home...should be an easier schedule and the OL will be much more mature.

  • Eric_UF said... (original post)

    What worries you about next year? We swap Miami with a cupcake and Auburn for Ole miss....we get LSU at home...should be an easier schedule and the OL will be much more mature.

    The defense will be playing new DBs, DLs, and LBs

  • Perdidokeygator said... (original post)

    The defense will be playing new DBs, DLs, and LBs

    That is fair....we know at least 1 New DB for sure (replace Henderson)...not sure Wilson will leave early, to soon to tell...Dean and the safeties will all be back. I suspect Elam will replace Henderson. We loose Reese, but Burney will be back at LB...we lose Zunega & Greenard, but the DT should be back. Based on last years recruiting class and this years, I'm pretty sure we should be alright....those backups will get a lot of game time in 2019....

  • In case you are wondering, the ratings are based on the projected starters, I attached the Florida vs Georgia Projected Starters as an example...

    The Blue Names for Georgia indicate "new" starters that did not start in 2018. Georgia has 6 of 11 projected replacements on offense and 7 of 11 projected replacements on defense....so only 7 returning starters between the 2 units.