NBA draft lottery

NBA draft lottery

  • This is insane. I know they flattened the odds a bit but it's still stunning how many of the low percentage teams moved into the top 4. Man, this is going to disincentivize tanking like nothing else.

  • Discussion
  • From projected (odds) to actual:

    1) New York (pick 3)
    2) Cleveland (pick 5)
    3) Phoenix (pick 6)
    4) Chicago (pick 7)
    5) Atlanta (pick 8)
    6 Washington (pick 9)
    7) New Orleans (got pick 1)
    8) Memphis (got pick 2)
    9) Dallas (Atlanta) (got pick 10)
    10) Minnesota (got pick 11)
    11) Lakers (got pick 4)
    12) Charlotte (got pick 12)
    13) Miami (got pick 13)
    14) Sacramento (Boston) (got pick 14)

    Tanking really didn't pay. I love it.

    This post was edited by tjking82 8 months ago

  • Yep, teams should be forced to try to win.

  • In this draft, only Zion is a sure thing IMO. Prospects in the 2-20 don't have a huge separation IMO. I think the Pistons could get a solid pick at 15.

    If I'm Cleveland, New York, Lakers etc. I have no idea who I'm taking. Morant and Barrett have high ceilings, but nowhere near a sure thing.

  • Glad teams are being forced to win! Hopefully that comes to fruition. Part of the reason I'm not an NBA guy.

    Which - what will NOLA do? Trade Anthony Davis? Play both Randle and Zion? Or are you moving Randle too?

  • bacon1431 said... (original post)

    In this draft, only Zion is a sure thing IMO. Prospects in the 2-20 don't have a huge separation IMO. I think the Pistons could get a solid pick at 15.

    If I'm Cleveland, New York, Lakers etc. I have no idea who I'm taking. Morant and Barrett have high ceilings, but nowhere near a sure thing.

    Honestly, I know it might sound crazy, but I don't even think Zion is a sure thing. At best, I see him as a Blake Griffin knockoff. No jumper but can compete on straight athleticism alone. Can he develop an outside game like Blake sort of has? Sure, but will it take 8 years like it did for Blake just to be "ok" from the outside?

    He just doesn't seem to be a great fit for today's NBA that basically requires your big men to be proficient from the outside. Plus, he's not going to be able to overpower everyone like he did to all of those 170 lb kids in high school and college. He will probably have a nice career, but I don't see him being a true superstar by any means.

    This post was edited by BigTenPhan 8 months ago

  • LLBlueJ said... (original post)

    Glad teams are being forced to win! Hopefully that comes to fruition. Part of the reason I'm not an NBA guy.

    Which - what will NOLA do? Trade Anthony Davis? Play both Randle and Zion? Or are you moving Randle too?

    The only thing that's for certain in my book is that you're keeping Zion for one season and trying to convince AD that Zion's the real deal. If you can't convince AD, I guess you're taking the best offer of young players and picks, just like before, but your timeline is moved up. Not sure what you do with Randle...

  • BigTenPhan said... (original post)

    Honestly, I know it might sound crazy, but I don't even think Zion is a sure thing. At best, I see him as a Black Griffin knockoff. No jumper but can compete on straight athleticism alone. Can he develop an outside game like Blake sort of has? Sure, but will it take 8 years like it did for Blake just to be "ok" from the outside?

    He just doesn't seem to be a great fit for today's NBA that basically requires your big men to be proficient from the outside. Plus, he's not going to be able to overpower everyone like he did to all of those 170 lb kids in high school and college. He will probably have a nice career, but I don't see him being a true superstar by any means.

    Yeah, Zion's a weird case. He's obviously a physical freak; like LeBron, he's remarkably ready coming in from a physical, athleticism perspective. However, he doesn't have LeBron's exceptional passing skills, not to mention that LeBron was drafted in a less 3-happy era and has since learned to shoot the 3 adequately. Zion shot 34% from 3 in college, I don't know what that translates out of the gate as a pro but I'm guessing 30% or less. Can a forward become dominant on sheer athleticism without a 3 point shot in this era? The only real example is Antetokounmpo, but even there, Giannis is a different body type, has 4 inches on him AND is learning to shoot the 3 as well.

    I think Zion will definitely be dominant once he can shoot the 3. Until then - can he be a second Antetokounmpo, who dominates on sheer, raw athleticism at merely 6'8? I agree it's far from certain. More likely he's Blake Griffin, as you say.

    This post was edited by tjking82 8 months ago

  • BigTenPhan said... (original post)

    Honestly, I know it might sound crazy, but I don't even think Zion is a sure thing. At best, I see him as a Black Griffin knockoff. No jumper but can compete on straight athleticism alone. Can he develop an outside game like Blake sort of has? Sure, but will it take 8 years like it did for Blake just to be "ok" from the outside?

    He just doesn't seem to be a great fit for today's NBA that basically requires your big men to be proficient from the outside. Plus, he's not going to be able to overpower everyone like he did to all of those 170 lb kids in high school and college. He will probably have a nice career, but I don't see him being a true superstar by any means.

    I think he is pretty much going to be Blake Griffin at the next level. Which is still a franchise player. Obviously has to stay healthy and can't do it alone, but I'll take a Blake Griffin at #1 anyday. Kid plays hard. I think his shot will translate after some development. Form isn't perfect, but it's smooth. Just needs more work. I think he is a great modern big man. He has ball skills, can dribble a bit. Obviously not a finished product, but he's got everything you need and it just needs to be ironed out. I don't think he's a Lebron or Anthony Davis level prospect. But Blake Griffin is a great comp IMO and still a future HOF.

  • bacon1431 said... (original post)

    I think he is pretty much going to be Blake Griffin at the next level. Which is still a franchise player. Obviously has to stay healthy and can't do it alone, but I'll take a Blake Griffin at #1 anyday. Kid plays hard. I think his shot will translate after some development. Form isn't perfect, but it's smooth. Just needs more work. I think he is a great modern big man. He has ball skills, can dribble a bit. Obviously not a finished product, but he's got everything you need and it just needs to be ironed out. I don't think he's a Lebron or Anthony Davis level prospect. But Blake Griffin is a great comp IMO and still a future HOF.

    I’m with you about Zion’s impact. I didn’t really watch any Duke games until the ACC tournament so I was one of those who thought all the hype I was hearing about Zion was just that, hype. But when I saw him play, you could tell he was a man amongst boys even in the ACC. Kid just has so many physical qualities you can’t teach. As far as comparisons go, I think Griffin is a great comparison as well as someone like Vince Carter.

    The only thing I would be wary about is that his frame is very conducive for holding a lot of mass, and not just muscle. He will need to be on a regimented diet as he gets older because I see his weight being an issue as he approaches his 30’s.

  • ChiTownMichiganFan said... (original post)

    The only thing I would be wary about is that his frame is very conducive for holding a lot of mass, and not just muscle. He will need to be on a regimented diet as he gets older because I see his weight being an issue as he approaches his 30’s.

    So he's either Blake Griffin or Oliver Miller. haha.

    Yeah, he truly is one of a kind and I agree that Blake was a real star early in his career even with his limitations. However, the NBA was totally different. That was still an era in the NBA that guys like Ben Wallace thrived in. Now the NBA has little use for guys like Ben Wallace, Andre Drummond and even guys like Blake Griffin (if they play a a little lower level).

  • BigTenPhan said... (original post)

    So he's either Blake Griffin or Oliver Miller. haha.

    Yeah, he truly is one of a kind and I agree that Blake was a real star early in his career even with his limitations. However, the NBA was totally different. That was still an era in the NBA that guys like Ben Wallace thrived in. Now the NBA has little use for guys like Ben Wallace, Andre Drummond and even guys like Blake Griffin (if they play a a little lower level).

    Griffin’s issue is health. When he was healthy, he was a top 10-15 player in the league. He’s not now, but that’s because injuries have sapped some of his explosiveness. Great passer (for a big man) and great rebounder and great scorer. Even with the spread out game becoming more prominent, he was still very very good. Just kept getting hurt.

  • BigTenPhan said... (original post)

    So he's either Blake Griffin or Oliver Miller. haha.

    Yeah, he truly is one of a kind and I agree that Blake was a real star early in his career even with his limitations. However, the NBA was totally different. That was still an era in the NBA that guys like Ben Wallace thrived in. Now the NBA has little use for guys like Ben Wallace, Andre Drummond and even guys like Blake Griffin (if they play a a little lower level).

    Ha, maybe not Miller but more like Shawn Kemp. Anyone remember how fat the reign man was at the end of his career?

  • ChiTownMichiganFan said... (original post)

    Ha, maybe not Miller but more like Shawn Kemp. Anyone remember how fat the r...

    Oh yeah. He quit drinking and added like 40 quick lbs.

  • bacon1431 said... (original post)

    Griffin’s issue is health. When he was healthy, he was a top 10-15 player in...

    Some of it health and some of it is simply age. You cannot count on jumping over cars at age 30, like you did at 22. The good thing about Blake is he was ahead of the curve a bit and started developing an outside shot that had to be respected. If he hadn't done that in the past few years, his game would be pretty weak because he can't elevate anymore.

    I could see Zion being too one dimensional early in his career. Defenders can just sag on him and dare him to shoot. Pack in the defense and take away his strength. While he's very quick for his size, I think he will be a walking offensive foul in the NBA.