The NCAA football playoff follies…

The NCAA football playoff follies…

  • The rematch of Alabama-LSU rightfully killed the 2 team championship game setup. The 4 team situation is better, but with some very big holes. The rankings are a beauty contest and the voters usually go with the team they know (and love) . Wins as the prime justification and the same teams, from the same conferences are always chosen. So far in 5 years (20 spots), the SEC has 6, the ACC has 5, Big12 and Big Ten have 3 and the PAC12 has 2, and independents (ND) one. Look up the top 15 of the first championship placement this week…. we are headed that direction again.


    How does this happen? The pre-season top 25 (below) is suspiciously like the ending of the prior year. A team can lose half its team and it still is in that initial top 25. As the season wears on, some teams lose their way out of that ininitial ranking but it isn't easy. It took Texas 3 losses to get knocked out of the top 25. Halfway through the season ten of the initial selection were gone. This year at week 9 it lost 10 of its top 25 including 3 of the top 15. So why have a poll until week 3, when the OOC is done for most conferences.
    There is no consequence for having a poor Strength Of Schedule. With 120 division 1A teams, a tough schedule would be around the top 1/4 marker or 30, a easier would be 31-60, and a dog of a schedule would be 61 and below. Now look below at the SOS (parenthesis). Only Ohio State , Oregon, Florida, Auburn, LSU are tough by those standards and Michigan is around there. The rest is dog city. Alabama is 59 and still has Western Carolina ahead- their week before the Auburn game. Clemson with a really down conference is 64 and just played OOC Wolford, Georgia is 50, Baylor is 65, Minnesota is 82, Oklahoma is 49.


    Schedules are done years in advance but really, some teams won't be good for the next 40 years. The only thing that seems to count is wins and (IMO) location of the teams. The highest placed teams with a 7 wins and a loss is Georgia (50 SOS), and Oklahoma (49 SOS). The highest placed 2 loss teams are Florida and Auburn, Michigan and Notre Dame. Who says royalty (some deemed conferences) don’t have privileges. But if wins are everything do losses count, or are they simply explained away?


    Have the winner of each of the power 5 championship qualify. FYI Clemson is playing in a basically worthless conference this year, and no competition. ESPN is promoting another 2 team SEC playoff, the Big Ten has more credentials than either and will likely get 1. The PAC12 is talked about as not worthy despite equal records and better SOS of Utah and Oregon. The NCAA will find a way to snub them, Have a 8 team payoff (8 teams playing one more game). or 5 or 6 teams(1-2 add-in) with 3 or 2 bye teams until round 2.


    AP top 25 (preseason): 1. Clemson, 2. Alabama, 3. Georgia, 4. Oklahoma, 5. Ohio State, 6.LSU, 7.Michigan 8.Florida, 9.Notre Dame, 10. Texas, 11.Oregon, 12.Texas A&M, 13. Washington, 14.Utah, 15.Penn State, 16.Auburn, 17.UCF, 18.Michigan State, 19.Wisconsin, 20.Iowa, 21.Iowa State, 22.Syarcuse, 23.Washington State, 24.Nebraska, 25.Stanford.


    AP top 25 (week 9): 1. LSU (34) 8-0, 2.Alabama (59) 8-0, 3.Ohio State (20) 8-0, 4.Clemson (64) 9-0, 5.Penn State (39) 8-0, 6.Georgia 50) 7-1, 7.Oregon (24) 8-1, 8.Utah (40) 8-1,9. Oklahoma (49) 7-1, 10.Florida (8) 7-2, 11.Baylor (65) 8-0, 12.Auburn (3) 7-2, 13.Minnesota (82) 8-0, 14.Michigan (32) 7-2, 15.Notre Dame (33) 6-2, 16.Wisconsin (44) 6-2, 17.Cincinatti (56) 7-1, 18.Iowa (51) 6-2, 19.Memphis (86) 8-1, 20.Kansas State (22) 6-2 , 21.Boise State (88) 7-1, 22.Wake Forest (80) 7-1, 23.SMU (69) 6-1, 24.San Diego State (101?) 7-1 25.Navy (96) 7-1.

    BTW position drops in the AP poll after 1st loss: Oregon 5, Utah 9, Washington 9, Texas 3, ND 3. Get the picture?

  • Discussion
  • GaryD said... (original post) The rematch of Alabama-LSU rightfully killed the 2 team championship game setup. The 4 team situation is better, but with some very big holes. The ra...



    Oregon, Utah and Washington wouldn't stand a chance agsinst LSU, Alabama, Clemson or Ohio St.
  • Oh all that stuff doesn't even begin to bother me like it used to. We've got to get one whole hell of a lot better before I start sweating getting into those playoffs or not.

  • The Pac 12 is improving. Last year the Pac-12 champ lost to the SEC #10 team OOC. This year if Oregon wins the title, they will have lost to the likely SEC #5. Progress!!!!

  • 1) You lost me @ AP poll. It’s irrelevant on week 1 or week 9 or any other week and has been for years. It’s only useful for fan measurabators until the only poll that matters is released 11/5.

    2) Committee members have every metric known to man available to them every week and there’s a process for challenging a ranking position if a member believes one team is ranked too high or too low.

    3) “A recused member is permitted to answer only factual questions about the institution from which the member is recused but shall not be present during any deliberations regarding that team's selection or seeding. Recused members shall not participate in discussions regarding the placement of the recused team into a bowl game.”

    4) After week one you can have a good discussion about Penn State’s ranking or the best 1 loss team but the whole thing will work itself out over the next 6 weeks starting with this week’s matchups.

    It’s the only picture I pay attention to.

  • The illustrious SEC was 6-6 in bowl games last year or do you think the selection committee is more important then cleats on the field?

    The #1 ranked team by the committee , Alabama was beaten by 44-16. And the Dodgers won the metrics battle last year right? They weren't the best team on the field.

    BTW here's a link to the first release of playoff ranking and the AP side by side..... seems very close to me...

    https://www.espn.com/college-football/rankings

    This post was edited by GaryD 3 days ago

  • GaryD said... (original post) The illustrious SEC was 6-6 in bowl games last year or do you think the selection committee is more important then cleats on the field?

    What does that have to do with this year?

  • I would love to see an 8 team playoff, but a bye is way too much of an advantage and could nullify the who reason for having 8 vs 4. The 5 conference champs plus 3 at large.

    This post was edited by JuanPeligroso 3 days ago

  • GaryD said... (original post) The illustrious SEC was 6-6 in bowl games last year or do you think the selection committee is more important then cleats on the field?

    While conference bowl records is one way to look at the conference strength, the rest of the OOC games and strength of schedule are more telling. If anything, I would review/question the SoS methodology used by the selection committee.

  • JuanPeligroso said... (original post) I would love to see an 8 team playoff, but a bye is way too much of an advantage and could nullify the who reason for having 8 vs 4.

    I dont really need an 8 team playoff, the more teams there are the less of a chance a cinderella will win iyam. They will make the playoffs more for sure, but win less.

  • westcoastfball said... (original post) I dont really need an 8 team playoff, the more teams there are the less of a chance a cinderella will win iyam. They will make the playoffs ...

    I think that is the idea. A Cinderalla win by definition means the best team did not win. IMO, teams that have an easy path all season and only need to prepare for 1 or 2 games did not earn the right to play for the NC. With so many teams, it's tough to develop a system that is a full meritocracy. Even the NFL system is flawed where a division champ can have a poor record and make the playoffs.

  • GaryD said... (original post) The illustrious SEC was 6-6 in bowl games last year or do you think the selection committee is more important then cleats on the field?The #1 ranked ...

    I think the selection committee doesn’t play the games. Some teams show up to play bowl games and some don’t.

    Bama was one of 4 teams with a chance.They lost to the better team that day. The committee also picked Bama over aOSU for the 2017 game in a controversial move that caused a few heads around here to explode. Both teams had less than stellar resumes but the better team was chosen and won the NC. OSU won their conference and didn’t get in because of 2 blowout losses. OK.. 31-16 and unranked Iowa 55-24.Urban Meyer team lest we forget. I want the committee choosing my teams over computers or a group of sportswriters and coaches or assistants.

    Doyers got to the postseason because they won more games than most of the other teams. MLB doesn’t use a committee to choose postseason teams. They lost to a hot team that didn’t lose a road game.

  • The PAC 12 is terrible. Conference champs shouldn't get an auto bid because they're the tallest midget in the room.

  • JuanPeligroso said... (original post) I think that is the idea. A Cinderalla win by definition means the best team did not win. IMO, teams that have an easy path all season and on...

    As a Notre Dame fan, I thought their best chance to win a national title was the old BCS system, where they just have to win 1 game. You can look at 2012 and their blow out loss to Alabama, but really they were close to playing Kansas St for a national title. That will never happen now.

    Now these cinderella teams, will have to likely beat 3 teams with better talent, in 3 straight weeks. Which almost sounds impossible.

  • Finkle said... (original post) I think the selection committee doesn’t play the games. Some teams show up to play bowl games and some don’t. Bama was one of 4 teams with a chance....

    Every other NCAA sport has some form of playoff that starts with conference champions, and adds on others (like Basketball) chosen by committee. The NCAA BBall is noted for Cinderellas and they have to go through 6 rounds to prove it.

    This NCAA football championship round is solely decided by committee, and that difference is its fallibility.

  • GaryD said... (original post) Every other NCAA sport has some form of playoff that starts with conference champions, and adds on others (like Basketball) chosen by committee. The ...

    I can think of one cinderella that has won it all in the last 20 years, and that was basically a major power that got hot, UConn when they were a 7 or 8 seed.

  • westcoastfball said... (original post) I can think of one cinderella that has won it all in the last 20 years, and that was basically a major power that got hot, UConn when they w...

    A lot of them have gone deep (sweet 16 and up) including Florida Gulf coast with Andy Enfield.

    And then there was the disregard for USC as the only second place finisher in any major conference that also was the second place finisher in the PAC12 tournament...... that didn't make the top 66. I guess the committees eight ball showed the murky triangle come up out of the fluid as 'not at this time'.

  • westcoastfball said... (original post) I can think of one cinderella that has won it all in the last 20 years, and that was basically a major power that got hot, UConn when they w...

    Yep. Better for cinderella squads to have everything align for one game than have to play 2-3 games against better talented teams. Chris Petersen mastered this.

    Not a hard concept to grasp unless you're all in for participation awards or cute story lines that no one will remember two years later.

  • I support an 8 team playoff to make sure deserving teams don't get left out, give the G5 a real chance to at least have a miracle run to the title, and so that the teams on the wrong end of subjective decisions are generally those who had a clear objective failure to their season like not winning a conference championship.

    That said, in what year did a Pac 12 champ get left out when they deserved to make it? Stanford had 2 losses in 2015, including to Northwestern OOC. 2 loss (including a shellacking by ND) USC in 2017 obviously wasn't a top 4 team. Nor was 3 loss Washington last year. This year could end up with at least 1 deserving team left out, but it depends on how things play out.

  • GaryD said... (original post) A lot of them have gone deep (sweet 16 and up) including Florida Gulf coast with Andy Enfield. And then there was the disregard for USC as the only s...

    So what would be the point of expanding the playoffs if the same teams are going to win, that already do now? I think you could make the case these schools/programs are better off winning a NY6 bowl game to end the year instead of losing to Bama or Clemson by 4 TD's.

    How are you turning this into a USC basketball thing, especially in the season where the Pac-12 was historically bad?

  • GaryD said... (original post) Every other NCAA sport has some form of playoff that starts with conference champions, and adds on others (like Basketball) chosen by committee. The ...

    We'll disagree.

    You think we should start with conf champs.I think it s/b one of the factors (see my osu example above).If the ducks win out they will be conf champs and have 1 loss in an ooc game.Props for scheduling the game but they gave it away in the last minutes.That's not a resume builder.Keeping it close is not good enough in a game you should have won.That will and should matter in any discussion.They had better hope that the barners ball out the rest of the season.They can be in the discussion but need a big win in the ccg.Bottom line ....... I want the 4 best teams and they won't necessarily be conf champs.You say they must be..... I don't. Not all conf champs can be viewed the same and I want the committee not a poll to make the determination.

    I've been for playoff expansion from the beginning and it will happen at some point but our beef for that is with college presidents not the committee.And what poll position does a cinderella team occupy... 6-10 10-15? Whatever your view it will change from year to year.I also wonder about the quality of play and the effect of injuries due to added games.

    You want a team to get the best bowl game:

    Have 0 or 1 loss

    Win your ccg

    Have a strong resume and pass the eye test

  • JuanPeligroso said... (original post) I would love to see an 8 team playoff, but a bye is way too much of an advantage and could nullify the who reason for having 8 vs 4. The 5 co...




    I am all for an 8 team playoff. Starting with the first round played a week after the conference championships.