Pelosi announces official impeachment inquiry to start on Thurs.

Pelosi announces official impeachment inquiry to start on Thurs.

  • I know this is a CNN article, but it discusses polling of people who voted for Trump in 2016 in a battleground state, and how they feel about the Impeachment process. It makes me think Democrats need to be very careful not to move forward with an impeachment process that is not for something significant in the eyes of battleground state voters, or they will turn back to Trump. They are watching and waiting.

    https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/07/politics/impeachment-2020-swing-states-wisconsin/index.html

  • Tuengel said... (original post) I know this is a CNN article, but it discusses polling of people who voted for Trump in 2016 in a battleground state, and how they feel about the I...

    Just a thought. But when it comes to 2016, it may be more about the people who didn't vote rather than the people who voted for Trump. If lots of evidence of abuse of power with Ukraine, and possibly tax fraud along with emoluments violations, become public and the senate refuses to do anything about it, can we expect greater percentages of anti Trump voters will show up this time as opposed to 2016?

    That may be the better question to ask as opposed to changing the minds of those who voted for Trump the last time. The 2018 midterms seemed to show this.

  • Tuengel said... (original post) I know this is a CNN article, but it discusses polling of people who voted for Trump in 2016 in a battleground state, and how they feel about the I...

    You can't be too far in the middle to lose your core of liberal voters. The middle is just not worth the risk to Democrats like it is Republicans because we have so many who line up on the left of left with Gen X and Millennials even farther to the left and taking the place of Boomers like yourself. Dems can't just "appeal" to the middle if it means abandoning their liberal platform.

    That doesn't mean have zero Center policy. It means don't risk your core for the fringe by going so far to the center on policy.

    The good news is Suburban Center's have abandoned Trump and we saw that in 2018 and 2019 Nov. Elections. So, if Dems aren't courting them and Republicans aren't getting their vote?

    -

    With Trump, now is the time to stay left. Land the center who are tired of Trump and let those go who want a more "moderate" platform that the Dem party will never return to. If you lose WI, so be it. Dems already have MI and need PA far more than WI. With MI and PA, it's a tie, 269 to 269 if everything stays the same from 2016. WI would be nice, but they lean more conservative than middle and it's just not worth it to appease people who won't vote for you anyways.

    This post was edited by purpledawgfan 6 months ago

  • purpledawgfan said... (original post) You can't be too far in the middle to lose your core of liberal voters. The middle is just not worth the risk to Democrats like it is Re...

    More democrats favor keeping private insurance than want M4A

    This agrees with every poll I've seen among democrats if the question is asked - "do you favor strengthening the ACA and adding a medicare option for those who want it, or do you support M4A with getting rid of all private health insurance?" This Kaiser Foundation poll found 51% of democrats favored the latter, while just 38% favored going to an all government plan. Of course, among the general electorate it's even more of a majority not wanting an all government plan. The point is that Democrats are more toward the middle than many on the left think.

    -"Larger majorities of the public favor more incremental changes to the health care system such as a Medicare buy-in plan for adults between the ages of 50 and 64 (77 percent), a Medicaid buy-in plan for individuals who don’t receive health coverage through their employer (75 percent), and an optional program similar to Medicare for those who want it (74 percent). Both the Medicare buy-in plan and Medicaid buy-in plan also garner majority support from Republicans (69 percent and 64 percent­).
    Moving forward, half of Democrats would rather see the new Democratic majority in the U.S. House of Representatives focus their efforts on improving and protecting the ACA (51 percent), while about four in ten want them to focus on passing a national Medicare-for-all plan (38 percent)."-

  • moosewhosails247 said... (original post) More democrats favor keeping private insurance than want M4AThis agrees with every poll I've seen among democrats if the question is ...

    The ACA and M4A are both liberal plans. Isn't that supporting my point? A center Democrat who wants the ACA and doesn't want M4A is a lefty. They lean left if they support a government insurance program to cover healthcare. These aren't center voters. Not wanting a program that costs trillions of dollars doesn't mean you're not liberal or left. It means you don't want to spend that much.

    I'm saying stay left. Working on the ACA is staying left. It's Obamacare, for crying out loud. Passing M4A is going farther left.

    This isn't a good example. Show me immigration, taxes, and abortion. Then we will find the people who are truly in the center. Comparing the ACA supporters to the M4A supporters is comparing a bunch of people who support government healthcare, ie, Democrats. Lefties. Liberals.

    This post was edited by purpledawgfan 6 months ago

  • purpledawgfan said... (original post) The ACA and M4A are both liberal plans. Isn't that supporting my point? A center Democrat doesn't want M4A - which is why I'm ...

    PDF. I'm saying that running on a M4A plan with getting rid of all private health insurance is a big loser in the general election. To me that's obvious and puts democrats who won in swing districts in 2018 at risk. It's not about left or right, it's about a very unpopular position which has a big and pretty immediate effect on voters.

    This post was edited by moosewhosails247 6 months ago

  • moosewhosails247 said... (original post) PDF. I'm saying that running on a M4A plan with getting rid of all private health insurance is a big loser in the general election. T...

    Then we're talking about two different things. I'm looking at this from a Nov. 2020 standpoint, not right now. I'm looking at what the DNC should do, not Warren or Harris.

    I'm talking about states and voters, not M4A. We can't stop Warren from being ultra liberal. That's who she is and that is truly who the Democratic Party is becoming. Until we pick one, we can't even talk about it. If Bidne wins, problem solved. If Warren wins, then we're going left.

    What I'm saying is in states like WI, take your losses and focus on your core. You can win WI by staying left of center. You do not need to abandon your party's platform and future to secure 10% of a Pink state.

    MI is going blue. PA is leaning blue no matter who we pick. That's a 269-269 tied if Trump wins every state he had before. No reason to abandon the left for the center.

    This post was edited by purpledawgfan 6 months ago

  • Re-read that center article on Trump. You'll hear these people say the same thing. "He's dangerous." "He's reckless." "He won't shut up."

    These are the people you're afraid are going to vote for Trump because the M4A is too controversial?

    Your stuck in polls. Listen to the people's words along with the polls. This is what we missed in 2016. We focused on the polling and we didn't listen to the people.

    This post was edited by purpledawgfan 6 months ago

  • purpledawgfan said... (original post) Then we're talking about two different things. I'm talking about states and voters, not M4A. We can't stop Warren from being u...

    If we end up with Warren (who's not polling all that well vs Trump in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania) and she's pushing M4A, union workers (with their employer based health plans) in those states won't be anxious to vote for her. This election won't be decided in the most liberal states or the most conservative states it will be decided in the same swing states as it was in 2016. The best hope for republicans is that democrats go further left and out of the mainstream.

  • What is more controversial to center voters, Trump or M4A? I believe it is Trump. To Moose, it's M4A? Am I correct?

    I'm not arguing the validity of the M4A or that it isn't controversial. I'm arguing that the 2020 elections will be about one thing and one thing only, removing or keeping Donald Trump in office. That's it.

  • moosewhosails247 said... (original post) If we end up with Warren (who's not polling all that well vs Trump in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania) and she's pushing M...

    To which I agree. The swing states always decide our election.

    Warren has to first win the DNC, then the US. So it isn't a surprise that she's pushing her most liberal platforms now while securing those votes, and saving whatever center plans she has for the GE. She has to lure liberal voters right now to even have a chance to defend her M4A plan in July.

    At the end of the day, WI is going to be asked a question. Do you want four more years of Trump or not? I think he is far more controversial that M4A, a plan that still needs to make it through the House and GOP Senate before it becomes law.

    When Warren wins the party, then we can fret about her being too liberal. But right now, she's trying to land liberal votes so why is that so surprising and why is that wrong?

    This post was edited by purpledawgfan 6 months ago

  • “For the first time in nearly 40 years, Democrats have taken control of Columbus, Indiana—the hometown of Vice President Mike Pence,” Newsweek reports.

    “On Tuesday, Columbus voters saw four Democrats elected to City Council seats, with only three Republican incumbents claiming re-election victory.”

    -

    You're really undermining the power of the anti-Trump movement. I think Dems can run anything right now because the majority of America is so tired of this man they just want him gone.

  • purpledawgfan said... (original post) What is more controversial to center voters, Trump or M4A? I believe it is Trump. To Moose, it's M4A? Am I correct?I'm not arguing ...

    Don't agree with you for two reasons - (1) Under the right circumstances Trump can lose the popular vote by an even bigger number than he did in 2016, but if he edges out the democrat in the same states as the last time, he can still win. (2) The swing districts which helped democrats take the house are very vulnerable to very unpopular positions like eliminating all private health insurance.

    It's hard to argue against the logic of this, imo. Don't assume that most voters in those swing states warm up to Warren if they believe she pushes something they believe will hurt them personally.

  • moosewhosails247 said... (original post) Don't agree with you for two reasons - (1) Under the right circumstances Trump can lose the popular vote by an even bigger number tha...

    And I disagree with you as well.

    1. Trump can win the Presidency with a bigger drop in the pop vote. What does that matter? That's just math, not politics or votes.

    2. Democrats are winning in Republican areas right now. Republican. So why would swing areas all of a sudden abandon the trend that we're seeing in RED areas? You're devaluing Trump and overvaluing M4A, IMO.

    This election won't come down to M4A. Trump won't let it. He will attack the constitution, attack the government, attack the media, attack women, attack liberals, attack his own party when they disagree with him. If you think we're going to have a fair and honest debate with Trump at any point in this election, you're fooling yourself.

    It's this notion that leads me to believe that while not as popular as the ACA, it won't matter. This election will not be about the issues. It will be about ONE MAN and he will insure that stays that way.

  • We can talk about issues right now because Trump isn't in it. As soon as he is, we won't be talking about M4A like we are now, we won't be talking about healthcare in a reasonable and intelligent matter. It will be chaos, just as he wants it. That's why I'm not worried about Warren and her plans because Trump is going to make this about him and those in the center and right will decide based on that. Do I want more Trump and more court packing or have I had enough of him?

    When the great chaos maker isn't even in the ring yet, it's just impossible to tell how the fights going to go. But we do no one thing, it will be chaotic and it will not be normal.

    This post was edited by purpledawgfan 6 months ago

  • From Kaiser:

    PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 27%, Warren 18%, Sanders 14%, Harris 4%

    MICHIGAN: Warren 25%, Biden 19%, Sanders 15%, Buttigieg 7%

    WISCONSIN: Warren 22%, Biden 17%, Sanders 10%, Buttigieg 6%

    MINNESOTA: Warren 25%, Klobuchar 15%, Biden 14%, Sanders 13%

  • purpledawgfan said... (original post) From Kaiser:PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 27%, Warren 18%, Sanders 14%, Harris 4%MICHIGAN: Warren 25%, Biden 19%, Sanders 15%, Buttigieg 7%WISCONSIN: W...

    How can Warren be leading Dems in WI but be the worst choice in that swing state?

    Shouldn't we listen to our voters?

  • It also helps that Trump is giving up on the very people he's already lost. He is going to use the same strategy in 2020. He knows he will lose the Pop vote. He's just going to focus on keeping enough states to win.

    Per Cook Political: "Despite losing big in the suburbs in 2017, 2018 and 2019, the Trump campaign has zero interest in doing what it takes to win them back. Though they have more money and a better, more sophisticated campaign infrastructure, the Trump campaign is using the same playbook from 2016. Maximize turnout from the base at all costs and hope that Democrats nominate a candidate who will be even more unappealing to the suburban voters who have abandoned the party.”

    The problem with that is unlike 2016, he is the Hillary Clinton of this race. The known, known. The most disliked. The most hated. The least trusted. There is value in this. That value can tip WI far better than abandoning your platform and watering down healthcare.

    This post was edited by purpledawgfan 6 months ago

  • I know the youth is always more liberal than their older selves, but they're far more liberal today than I was in 1990's at the same age. The party is moving left and we can see it in our youth who is free to move even farther left. We can't abandon this.

    -

    A new Harvard Institute of Politics poll finds Bernie Sanders the top choice of voters aged 18 to 29 years old with 28%, followed by Elizabeth Warren at 22% and Joe Biden at 16%.

    Meanwhile, President Trump’s approval rating stands at just 27% among young Americans polled, and 59% say they’ll never vote to re-elect him.

  • purpledawgfan said... (original post) I know the youth is always more liberal than their older selves, but they're far more liberal today than I was in 1990's at the sam...

    The issues are quite a bit different. It's not just the left that's moving, it's the right also. The big issues when I was growing up were the first Gulf war, health care, the Spotted Owl/ Timber debate, and things of that nature. Economics was important, but the cost of living wasn't nearly this out of whack. Student loan debt hadn't hit the levels it's hitting now, people weren't losing millions of jobs to robots ect....

    People are more freaked out about the future now, and they're demanding change, not just on the left but on the Right also. The politics is just now starting to catch up, but they're still imo, out of step. And I'm not talking about Medicare for all versus a public option, I'm talking about the current economic model of the United States. It's been more or less the same since Reagan/Greenspan. It's a big reason why you saw Trump emerge on the right and a heated primary between Clinton and Sanders on the left. Bernie Sanders more or less ran in 92 in the form of Jerry Brown and again in 2000 in the form of Ralph Nadar, in 04 and 08 as Dennis Kucinich, but never came close to getting the level of support that Bernie and Elizabeth Warren are getting now.

    On the righ you had Perot, Pat Buchannon and Ron Paul, but that was also a small slice of the pie there as well and then suddenly Trump in 2016.

    While Trump hasn't really delivered on what he preached, he still represents a major break from Reagononmics on the right, at least on the campaign trail early where he was initially talking about raising taxes on the wealthy, protecting Social Security and Medicare, infrastructure spending ect...

    On both sides there is definitely a generation gap between the baby boomer generation and that platform and the millinials. It's why the Center is dying in both parties, people are waking up to what those people really where and are, corporate shills.

    The irony, is that economically there isn't a giant gap between what a Sanders supporter would want and what a Trump supporter would want. Socially, yes, there's a huge gap, but not as much on economics. Whether or not that results in some common goals amongst left and right congressional leaders remains to be seen, right now what ever the other side is for is evil and vice versa. If that divide starts to heal, this country will shift economically in a significant fashion.

    This post was edited by 509dawg 6 months ago

  • 509dawg said... (original post) The issues are quite a bit different. It's not just the left that's moving, it's the right also. The big issues when I was growing u...

    I don't disagree with your premise here. America is chaotic right now and divided more than ever. Further fueling why I don't see the value in attracting those who are already against you and just hiding in the center because they don't like Trump, but would never vote D.

    The center is dying. I don't think it's dead, it's just on life-support in 2020. This is why I see no value in attracting the center voters who might not even support you regardless.

    The center isn't represented by anyone, so I'm not fearful they're going to flock to the right. They're just as angry at Trump as they are at Democrats. The center is made up of people who list left or list right and I expect those people to list accordingly in 2020 regardless if Warren pushes M4A or isn't even nominated.

    Democrats can win by securing suburban women in WI, MI, and PA. They've abandoned Trump. They need to abandon the white man without a college degree. He's tired of Trump, but to anti-liberal to vote Dem. See Binder as a great example of the non-college grad white male in America.

    Women are the key in 2020. Not men. If you're a woman in the center, I'd be you lean far more to the left. If you're a man, especially without a degree, you lean right. Go after the women in WI, MI, and PA. They'll win it for you.

    This post was edited by purpledawgfan 6 months ago

  • purpledawgfan said... (original post) Exactly. The center is dying. I don't think it's dead, it's just on life-support in 2020. This is why I see no value in attrac...

    The Binder vote is tricky, not sure if that one is possible even though he would have somethings in common with the pro worker left.

    Where I think the Republican party is missing the boat if they want to remain relevant (demographically, they're in big long term trouble), is with there anti-union anti healthcare rhetoric. You just saw that play out in Kentucky and it also happened to Scott Walker in Wisconsin and with the arse in Michigan. The Center left has done a piss poor job representing working class people with the exception of healthcare. If the Right ran a Pro Union, Pro Health care candidate, that's scoop up a lot of working class left voters. Likewise on the left, if they focus on a Pro worker campaign rather than on Transgender birth rights, they'd also gain ground in a lot of places.

    The Republicans run an anti-union platform primarily because Unions support democratic candidates. But they're losing big money donors that aren't in the power and energy industry and the democrats haven't done much of a job supporting union workers. If I was going to run on the right, I'd try to corner the SEIU or Teamsters and say hey, "these guys aren't doing anything for you, I'm going to advocate for an end to right to work, I'm going to push for fair trade ect... and I'm going to steal your business from them by actually supporting your workers".

  • 509dawg said... (original post) The Binder vote is tricky, not sure if that one is possible even though he would have somethings in common with the pro worker left. Where I think ...

    It doesn't really matter what the GOP says, they have no minorities. They can't speak to these people because they don't look, talk, or act like them. IMO, that's the GOP's biggest flaw in 2020 and beyond.

    However, I do agree with you that a severe issue is there lack of support and over-promising the blue-collar American worker. These are people who don't give a s*** about party politics, it's about what you're going to do for them in the mainly RUST BELT of America. The BOOM times of the US are hitting the coasts, not the center. Certainly not the RUST BELT. These voters will vote D or R, depending on who presents the best plan. These voters control OH, PA, MI. I do not include WI, but I would include IA. That Lake Erie part of the MW where there are more minorities, larger cities, large suburban areas and 54 Electoral Votes between them.

    Trump has already lost the women as we've seen in 2017, 18, and 19 with women overwhelmingly voting D in those areas for local and federal elections. I think there are enough women in those three states and enough minorities to win them regardless if Warren is running on M4A. If Dems win all three, they win the election. Just camp on Lake Erie and win those states by getting the women back on board.

    This post was edited by purpledawgfan 6 months ago

  • purpledawgfan said... (original post) It doesn't really matter what the GOP says, they have no minorities. They can't speak to these people because they don't look, ...

    Yah, except minorities tend not to turn out as well as white folks do. They also aren't nearly as sensitive as there liberal white counter parts. For example, the "blackface" governor of Virginia remains just as popular with AA's as he was before that came out, the left group that was upset about that was pretty much 100% white.

    As far as Trump goes, he's dug his own hole. That's not really what I'm talking about, and talking about the future direction of each party. The corporate crowd is trying really hard to ensure the democratic party is the party of big business and at least 1/3 of the democratic party hates that. That also leaves the republican party shorter and shorter on funds, it used to be they crushed the left financially, but that has been changing rapidly since the 90's and they're really down to just power and energy. So if the Left goes corporate, essentially 1/3 of there voting block is up for grabs and would likely turn over time if the Republican party went full on pro labor. It's not like the parties haven't swapped bases before, in fact it's happened a bunch of times.

    It happened post Teddy Rosevelt in the early 1900's, then it happened again in the 60's.

  • Looking to make the public hearings as combative as possible, a change has been made to the intelligence committee.

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jim-jordan-to-be-moved-to-house-intelligence-committee/