Pick the number of games the Cavs win this year.

Pick the number of games the Cavs win this year.

  • It will probably be a long year, but I'm picking the Cavs to win 25 games. That being said, I'm good with that. I got my championship in 2016 and it still is pretty cool. That's one thing no one will ever be able to take away from us.

  • Discussion
  • Too many potential inflection points for this team, but if their primary goal is to keep their lottery pick in the draft, Altman may very well "steer" the team to your prediction.

    I can string a whole bunch of if's together that will get those wins up, but they have to show they'll listen to the new coaching staff, that Love can stay healthy, that Garland can make an immediate impact, that we see some buy-in and improvement from various players, etc, etc; but that's with my Wine & Gold colored glasses on. Too early to call - let alone assume that whatever pieces turn out to be key to their success aren't traded.

  • John B was hired to develop the young players and that's just what's going to happen. They'll get plenty of playing time and so will the young players we get when TT is traded before the deadline.

    The NBA season is long when you know you're not going to the playoffs and Players know it. Plus it's hard to give it 100% all the time for young guys asked to carry a team. That being said, I think we're around the 20 wins total for the season. It will be a good if we can win 2-3 of our first handful of games. Hate to start the season on a long losing streak.

  • revjj said... (original post) John B was hired to develop the young players and that's just what's going to happen. They'll get plenty of playing time and so will t...

    We were so poorly coached last season and Kevin missed so many games and still won 19. That JB will be trying to actually coach these guys up means we may see systematic improvements. Just not being the worst defense in recorded history should be a big deal.

    But yeah, Altman may blow it up.

  • The key will be keeping these young players’ heads up during the losing. Helping them see a light at the end of the tunnel. I see a 19-21 win season

  • I'll go with Chris Fedor's prediction of 24 wins.

    "Part of that win-loss record [prediction of 24 wins] reflects how long I believe it will take them to get comfortable with new faces, coaches, schemes and language. Part of that is how long I think it’s going to take Beilein to transition from college to the pros. Part ties into my belief that the Cavs are going to lose talent with trades before February."

    Yep, those are the three factors; 1) how quickly they can develop some team cohesion, 2) Beilein's transition, and 3) in-season trades to stockpile picks for the future.

    However, the only significant player they lost was Nwaba, who averaged 12 minutes a game and really wasn't much of a factor other than in a handful of games. They added Kevin Love, who missed 60 games, Garland, Porter, Henson, McKinnie, and Windler. Also, Thompson missed 39 games. I'm not saying we won't have any injuries but the Cavs lost a ton of games last year to key players, including THE key player. They were 7-9 when Love played 15 minutes or more after he returned.

    Also, they have five expiring contracts and those guys are going to be playing for their next deals. Clarkson, Henson, TT, Delly, and Knight are going to be seriously motivated to play as well as possible regardless of whether the team is losing or winning. Sexton should be improved with experience and more upper body strength. Garland should be an immediate contributor.

    I'm thinking 30 wins is not out of the question but a lot depends on injuries and how quickly Garland, Windler and Porter can start making contributions.

  • I'll go with 19. You can't expect more than 50 games out of Love, he always gets hurt and given his age, to expect otherwise is silly. I'm not sure it really matters though, at this point in his career his main value is on the defensive glass, he no longer has much value on offense.
    My main issue is I have no clue what the team is supposed to be. They have no identity. They will struggle to score and struggle to stop their opponents from scoring, a deadly combo. Putting a bunch of rookies on the court at the same time is a recipe for disaster, but I'm not sure what choice they have.

  • I think I'm going to keep guessing 35 until we actually win 35, but seriously way too early to call at this point. Much to see how things go with this team.

  • JonFromVA said... (original post) I think I'm going to keep guessing 35 until we actually win 35, but seriously way too early to call at this point. Much to see how things go ...

    35 is really aggressive especially if they trade TT and Clarkson for future assets, which I expect they will do.

  • dms1964 said... (original post) I'll go with 19. You can't expect more than 50 games out of Love, he always gets hurt and given his age, to expect otherwise is silly. I&...

    This team hasn’t had an identity since the Price/Daugherty/Nance day’s. It’s been ISO ball since 2003 (the drafting of LBJ) and with ISO ball now gone our new coach has to actually “teach” these youngsters how to play as a team. First thing he has to get them to understand is that FIRST OPEN JUMPER isn’t always the best shot. The ball movement has been better but the player movement hasn’t been there. Thus the play bogs down and we are still settling for jump shots and forced shots late in the shot clock

  • PROSECUTOR said... (original post) 35 is really aggressive especially if they trade TT and Clarkson for future assets, which I expect they will do.



    Yeah, I wasn't presuming any trades, meltdowns, or major injuries ... but that they try to execute an offense and defense and make forward progress.
  • JonFromVA said... (original post) Yeah, I wasn't presuming any trades, meltdowns, or major injuries ... but that they try to execute an offense and defense and make forward p...

    35 wins would put them in jeopardy of forfeiting their first round pick. I can't see them doing that, especially since it would be in the top 10. Sexton was a #8 pick.

    If Porter shows improvement during the first half and looks like he'll be a core piece they will definitely move Clarkson. They would have a logjam at the 2 position with Sexton, Clarkson, and Porter. There's been some consideration given to making Porter a 3 but with Cedi's four-year deal plus the drafting of Windler I can't see it. I like what I've seen of Porter so far and I think Clarkson will be moved.

    It looks like there will be a lot of competitive balance in the NBA this season (no super teams like the 70-12 Warriors). I think a lot of teams will be looking for that one piece to get them over the hump so guys like Clarkson and TT and possibly Henson should be very marketable. The Cavs could guarantee themselves a top 10 pick and stockpile a ton of assets for the future by trading those guys.

    There's also a logjam at PF with Love, Nance, and Henson.

  • PROSECUTOR said... (original post) 35 wins would put them in jeopardy of forfeiting their first round pick. I can't see them doing that, especially since it would be in the top 10...



    They could trade Clarkson and improve depending what that got back. So, I'm not going to take in to account trades that haven't happened or even assume they will sabotage the team until we see it.

    Its unlikely they keep everyone and unlikely they trade everyone expiring and I doubt they will release contributing players.

    Finally unlike most I don't presume keeping that pick is their primary goal for the season.
  • JonFromVA said... (original post) They could trade Clarkson and improve depending what that got back. So, I'm not going to take in to account trades that haven't happene...

    Most of the time if a team is trading for a player like TT or Clarkson the objective is to separate themselves from the pack and get to the Finals, so they won't be willing to give up a player that can help this season. Maybe we can find a trade partner who has a logjam at a certain position and will give up a young player with upside who is blocked, like the Lakers did with Larry Nance, Jr. But it's more likely they would trade us somebody like Knight who is buried on the bench and is in the final year of a big contract. We get more cap space next year that can be used to sign a free agent that fills an area of weakness for several years; they get immediate help without weakening themselves this year. Maybe we also get a draft pick out of it.

    As a bonus we make sure we don't win too many games this year and forfeit the draft pick that could be used to draft another player of the same caliber as Sexton or Garland.

  • Kevin Love on Sexton and Garland...

    "Those guys are going to make leaps and bounds, and get a lot better, fast.”

    Tristan Thompson said the Cavs are playing “the best defense we’ve played in a long time".

    "I think (Beilein) has done a good job looking at our team and saying ‘let’s not skip any steps, and start from the ground up, and let’s be very basic in our coverages so we can be great at it and from there we’ll build'. In the NBA, no one likes a tweener. It’s a position that everyone hates — a tweener. You do nothing great, you do everything good or just average, so let’s be great at one thing. Let’s be great at simple, defensive coverages, and from there as our team grows and guys grow, and then we can add new things. And I think that’s helped the young guys, but it’s helped us too as veterans.”

  • PROSECUTOR said... (original post) Most of the time if a team is trading for a player like TT or Clarkson the objective is to separate themselves from the pack and get to the Fina...

    And sometimes a team just wants to get off a longer-term salary because they know they won't be keeping that player and want to free-up cap space for other purposes. In either case, sometimes a useful player is returned, and sometimes a player who just needed more shots or more minutes gets it - and delivers.

    Predicting a tank level of performance because that may be the goal of the FO isn't especially interesting. What do you think this team would win if they kept the important pieces and tried?

    It would be nice to see more of John Henson, but reportedly he hurt himself again.

  • What do you think this team would win if they kept the important pieces and tried?

    Depends on how fast the three rookies improve and whether Love and Henson can stay healthy. If there are no trades and no significant long term injuries, I'd guess about 35 games given they play in the weaker conference. There seem to be more superstars injured this year than normal so that may help. They already got a break with Lamb and Oladipo out for Indiana.

    But why would they want to finish with the 11-14 worst record? They would lose a top 10 pick and would not make the playoffs. Wouldn't you agree it would be better to make a couple of trades, win 28 games, get a top 10 pick, and also get more assets down the road?

    Even if they could somehow sneak into the playoffs they would be quickly eliminated by the 1st or 2nd seed. The Cavs are playing the long game. If you can get a player like Collin Sexton with the #8 pick, why would you give that up just to win 35 instead of 28 games? Take the pick plus whatever we can get for TT and Clarkson in exchange for a few meaningless wins in a sub-.500 season.

    My preference would be to sign Thompson for another four years and trade Henson, Clarkson, and Knight. But I think Tristan is ready to move on.

  • PROSECUTOR said... (original post) What do you think this team would win if they kept the important pieces and tried?Depends on how fast the three rookies improve and whether Love ...

    If I knew we planned to keep Thompson and Love but that we'd trade Henson, Clarkson, and Knight (without major injuries) - I'd stick with my 35 win guess.

    I just don't think we should assume the FO is going to steer the team towards getting that lottery, nor should we assume JB and the players are going to let them. So, why not stick with what we do know? Or at least, make any assumptions clear.

    As for the team, player development and talent acquisition are both high priorities and wins are not meaningless if they're being driven by core players. If we're not good enough to get a top-10 pick (and fail to win the lottery), I'm thinking we've made some pretty good progress, and our cadre of young players (Sexton, Garland, Porter Jr, Windler, Zizic, Wade, etc) are probably contributing. If that's so, then that's great news because there is no "treadmill of mediocrity" for teams which know how to draft well and develop talent.

  • Well, you're right, if we do nothing this season except give lots of playing time to Sexton, Porter, Windler, and Garland, I'm sure we'll make "pretty good progress". By why settle for "pretty good" when we can add another top 10 pick to the core we are building?

    If we could get another player of similar ability to Sexton, why would we give that away for a few more wins which most likely won't even get us the opportunity to get blown out in the first round of the playoffs?

    If TT is going to sign with another team after the season, why wouldn't we trade him to get some potentially valuable draft picks? Or we could keep him until the end of the season, getting nothing when he walks and as a bonus he helps us win a few more games which sends our high first round pick to the Atlanta Hawks.

    I just don't get how it would be to the Cavs' advantage to essentially trade a top 10 pick for two 2nd rounders. (We lose two second round picks if we finish in the bottom 10 but keep our first rounder). How could winning a few more games possibly be worth the loss of a top 10 pick? And yes, talent acquisition IS a high priority - we agree on that.

    If the Cavs won 35 games last year they would have had the 10th worst record, so on second thought I suppose we could just keep the players we have and if we win 35 we still get to keep our #1 pick.

    Do you think we have the players we need to go to the Finals in a couple of years if we just keep what we have and don't have a first round pick until 2021 when we're 48-34?

    This post was edited by PROSECUTOR 9 months ago

  • PROSECUTOR said... (original post) Well, you're right, if we do nothing this season except give lots of playing time to Sexton, Porter, Windler, and Garland, I'm sure we...

    FIrst off keep in mind that if we finish in the lottery, we can win the lottery, and keep our pick and finish top-4. Otoh, if we finish with the 10th worst record and don't win the lottery, we could lose the pick if a team behind us moves ahead of us.

    Secondly, I'm forced to repeat, I am not Dan Gilbert or Koby Altman, so don't waste your time asking me questions as if I had any control over what the Cavs are going to do or what they value.

    If your only goal for the Cavs is for them to get back to the finals in a couple of years, I'd suggest you find a new hobby. Personally, I think our best shot to is through coaching, player development, and talent evaluation. If we're making steps forward in those areas, we'll eventually have a competetive and fun team to follow.

    Maybe we make a great trade, or win the lottery the right year, or develop some of our players in to superstars and take a leap back to the finals ... but there's no secret sauce other than doing things the right way top to bottom.

  • Yes, if we finish in the top 10 we could get a top four pick or even the #1, like the year we got Kyrie. Heck, look at the Pelicans last year. I didn't want to base my argument on something that probably won't happen, though.

    You mentioned player development. I agree, but you have to have young talent to develop and the more the better, right?

    As for having "a competitive and fun team to follow", I think we might actually have that right now. Without Henson, Windler, and Zizic and with Garland and Porter getting their first exposure to the NBA we beat Indiana and played competitively against Orlando and Milwaukee. We were down five points on the road to the Bucks with nine minutes to play before the bottom fell out.

    I have to believe the organization's goal is to work their way back to being a Finals contender over the next 3-4 years and not just setting for "competitive and fun". I'm sure they will be eager to sacrifice a few wins this year in order to assure themselves of a top 10 pick while adding more assets for the future. As Chris Fedor wrote recently,

    "Along with that, the Cavs have five expiring contracts -- Dellavedova, Knight, Henson, Thompson and Jordan Clarkson. All five won’t be moved. But the Cavs will trade a few, identifying the guys who don’t have a future with the team beyond this season, while trying to get something of value...An addition: The Cavs will re-sign one or two of the five at a lower number this coming summer."

  • PROSECUTOR said... (original post) Yes, if we finish in the top 10 we could get a top four pick or even the #1, like the year we got Kyrie. Heck, look at the Pelicans last year. I ...

    Correction: we only have to finish in the lottery (not make the playoffs) to have a shot at a top-4 pick, and the odds of doing that are higher than ever. The flip side of that is we have to finish with the 6th worst record (or worse) to guarantee we finish no lower than 10th in the draft.

    Anyway, we'll see what the Cavs do or don't do. Just keep in mind it takes two to tango, but I don't doubt the Cavs will try to pick up extra draft picks as they can - and that means more young players to develop. Those are unknowns at this point.

  • I agree they will try to pick up extra draft picks. The problem is that most teams wanting to trade for a Clarkson, Henson, or TT are gunning for the Finals so their first round picks aren't worth much. I don't think there are any more teams that have other teams' first round picks to trade, like when the Celtics dealt us the Sixers' unprotected first round pick in the Kyrie deal.

    Last year the Western Conference had EIGHT teams that finished with 48-57 wins. The Warriors were on top with 57 but they lost Durant and Klay. There could easily be another logjam out west this year with as many as eight teams with a realistic chance to make the Finals. If that's the way it plays out we will see a real seller's market with possibly multiple teams all competing to get guys like TT, Clarkson, and Henson, if he can ever stay on the court for a week or two.

    This could work out really well for the Cavs. It looks like the Bucks and Sixers will be duking it out in the East so those teams could be in the mix as well. But as you said, it's all unknown at this point.

    By the way, we're 3-4 games into the season and there are only four undefeated teams left.

    This post was edited by PROSECUTOR 9 months ago

  • By the way, the Warriors are 1-2 with their only win coming against the 0-4 Pelicans. They're starting a rookie guard who was the 28th pick in the draft who put up a -21 in 26 minutes against NO. They're also starting Glenn Robinson III, who has a career scoring average of 4.4 ppg in five seasons. He's on his 5th team. Cousins, Durant, Iggy, Livingston, Speights - all gone. Marquese Chriss, who the Cavs had no interest in keeping, is coming off the bench. It's Steph, Draymond, D'Angelo Russell, and a cast of no-names.

    None of their starters are over 6'6" tall.

    This post was edited by PROSECUTOR 9 months ago

  • PROSECUTOR said... (original post) By the way, the Warriors are 1-2 with their only win coming against the 0-4 Pelicans. They're starting a rookie guard who was the 28th pick ...

    The question being will they tank and try to replace KD using some combination of D'Lo and that pick? Or will they try to shore things up by trading for say Tristan Thompson or John Henson? I sure wouldn't mind having their draft pick (assuming they still own it).

  • No team has played more than five games and only two of the 30 teams are still undefeated. The Cavs are in 6th place in the East with a better record than nine other teams. The Warriors are 1-3 and I saw a column asking if they could miss the playoffs.